With MMA player props not being offered by any books, PrizePicks has stepped in to fill the void.
They're the only operator that allows us to get action on the statistical performance of UFC fighters, in a parlay format.
Below, you'll find my favorite picks for Saturday's card, as well as some other options to help round out your parlays.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
UFC Fight Night PrizePicks Parlay
Tatsuro Taira Under 2.5 Takedowns
Taira is fighting Carlos Candelario, in a rescheduled bout from two weeks ago. Taira is an undefeated prospect out of Japan, with seven of his 10 wins coming by submission. Six of those happened in the first round, with the other coming in the second.
While there's no data on the number of takedowns Taira landed in order to pick up those wins, it's highly likely it was just one per round. If he's able to pick up another submission win in the first or second trip to the mat, the under cashes in this prop.
It's also possible that the step up in competition leaves Taira unable to secure takedowns in the first place. Candelario is undefeated save a controversial split-decision loss on the Contender Series. He also has strong wrestling, and could score takedowns of his own or force this into a standup affair.
There's plenty of paths to the under on this one, but a fairly narrow route to this going over. Those are my favorite PrizePicks props to play.
Alexander Rakic Under 57.5 Significant Strikes
Rakic is taking on former champion Jan Blachowicz in the main event, a five round fight. At his current output of 4.23 significant strikes landed per minute, he only would need about 14 minutes to hit the over.
However, Blachowicz has excellent defense, taking just 2.79 strikes per minute. At that pace, Rakic needs about 20 minutes of action to go over this prop.
Of course, this fight could end before either of those time milestones are reached, with -150 odds to end inside the distance. Blachowicz could also look to control this one with his wrestling, as he did against Israel Adesanya.
If Blachowicz gets on top — or even controls Rakic along the fence — Rakic will have a hard time landing much offense. That's how I see this fight going much of the time, with Blachowicz looking to be the bigger stronger fighter.
Rakic also has solid power, so he could put away Blachowicz — who's returning following a neck surgery — with one of his first 57 strikes. This one's a bit scary, but the under should take it.
Quick Hits
- Tatsuro Taira Under 42.5 Significant Strikes: I have absolutely no idea how active of a striker Taira is, but he seems to pick up submissions fairly quickly. That, coupled with the chance that Candelario controls this fight, makes 42.5 strikes feel like a fairly lofty target here. This one is heavily correlated with his takedowns prop, and could also include his under 12.5 minute prop if you think he wins this fight easily.
- Davey Grant Over 44.5 Significant Strikes: The active Grant (4.55 landed per minute) takes on the very hittable Louis Smolka (3.87 absorbed per minute) in a bantamweight bout. This one likely lasts long enough for Grant to rack up some strikes, with each of his lasts bouts going the full 15 minutes.
