After a weekend off, the UFC returns Saturday afternoon with an early 1 p.m. ET card headlined by two top-10 heavyweights Alexander Volkov and Jairzinho Rozenstruik.
For those of you without legal sports betting, or those looking to get action in on individual fighter stats, PrizePicks is the perfect option. PrizePicks has brought player props to the world of MMA, allowing parlay bets on individual fighter statistics.
Below is my favorite two-leg parlay, as well as some other options for those seeking longer odds.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
UFC Fight Night PrizePicks Parlay
Erin Blanchfield Over 55.5 Significant Strikes
It would be hard for PrizePicks to set this line high enough for my liking. Blanchfield is the ideal fighter to rack up big strike totals, since she lands over 5.5 per minute despite having very limited power. She's fighting JJ Aldrich, who is also a near-ideal opponent to rack up strikes against.
Aldrich absorbs a fairly high 4.45 per minute — higher than her 4.04 strikes landed rate despite a 7-3 UFC record. Neither woman has ever landed a knockdown in their respective UFC careers, making it easier to rack up strikes without a stoppage getting in the way.
This fight is -225 (64.73% implied probability) to go the distance at DraftKings. There's some slight risk that Blanchfield gets a stoppage here since she's a huge favorite, but even her pre-UFC wins were primarily decisions. As long as this one goes the distance, she should pick up more than enough strikes to hit the over.
Jeff Molina Under 74.5 Significant Strikes
There's some similarities between this prop and the Blanchfield choice. Molina, like Blanchfield, is a solid favorite. He's also an absurdly active striker, landing 8.72 strikes per minute in his UFC career.
However, that's a fairly unsustainable amount, with a small 21 minute UFC sample size. His prop is also set a good bit higher than Blanchfield's, so he'd need to land at a 5.0 per minute clip to his.
That's assuming this fight goes the distance though, and that's somewhat less likely here at -175. Molina has strong finishing ability, with 10 of his 12 professional wins (including one of two in the UFC) coming inside the distance.
Against an opponent like Zhalgas Zhumagulov — who was knocked out in his last fight — it's a distinct possibility. There's a good chance his pace is slowed as he tried to fend off takedowns from Zhumagulov, who attempts them at a fairly high clip, and Molina won't be throwing as many strikes while fending them off.
Quick Picks
- Karine Silva Under 1.5 Takedowns: Projecting props with debuting fighters is always difficult, but it's equally difficult on PrizePicks to set an accurate line. After watching Silva's Contender Series bout, I expect her game plan to be to keep this one standing. She has extremely heavy hands, and should have the edge over her opponent Poliana Botelho in that department. Botelho also has excellent 80% takedown defense in her UFC career.
- Zhalgas Zhumagulov Under 2.0 Takedowns: There's some slight negative correlation with the Molina prop here — Zhumagulov racking up takedowns is one path to the strikes mark going under. However, a shorter fight should clinch both unders. That's the scenario I'm targeting here, for the reasons highlighted in the Molina pick.
- Alexander Volkov Under 19 minutes: While this is a fairly good line, 19 minutes is a long time to stand in front of Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Seven of Rozenstruik's nine UFC fights have lasted less than six minutes. Rozenstruik's aggressive striking generally leads to a finish — for somebody — in the early going of his bouts. The favored Volkov has ended two of his past three victories in the second round in his own right. For a full break down of this fight, check out my main event preview.
