Amanda Ribas vs. Maycee Barber Odds
The UFC Jacksonville co-main event features potential fireworks in the women's flyweight division with Amanda Ribas vs. Maycee Barber.
Both women are former strawweights who will be attempting to crack the top 10 at 125 pounds with a potential win at Saturday afternoon's event (3 p.m. ET main card, ABC).
Ribas is 1-1 since moving up to flyweight, dropping a competitive split decision to Katlyn Chookagian and winning a fun fight opposite Viviane Araujo earlier this year.
Barber, on the other hand, is riding high off a four-fight winning streak since dropping a decision to now-champ Alexa Grasso.
Tale of the Tape
| Ribas | Barber | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-3 | 12-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:18 | 12:14 |
| Height | 5'3" | 5'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 66" | 65" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 8/26/1993 | 5/18/1998 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.80 | 4.27 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 51% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.65 | 2.63 |
| SS Defense | 69% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.16 | 1.23 |
| TD Acc | 52% | 37% |
| TD Def | 88% | 47% |
| Submission Avg | 1.0 | 0.1 |
Despite both women making concerted efforts to round out their games in recent years, this fight comes with some striker vs. grappler vibes attached.
Ribas, who is a black belt in both judo and jiu-jitsu, will hold the clear on-paper edge on the floor.
The 29-year-old Brazilian works from the clinch like second nature, but she's more than capable of changing her level for a takedown in the open if she needs to.
Once able to establish herself from topside, Ribas has gotten a lot better at adjusting her grappling game to MMA by being more cognizant about scoring with ground strikes.
On the feet, Ribas' positivity continues to allow her to push past previous pitfalls, showing steady improvements along the way. The American Top Team product appears to prefer catch-and-pitch counters off which she flows combinations nicely.
That said, Ribas still seems to keep a low guard in tow and will need to be careful about the traffic coming her way.
Although Barber can get sloppy at times, she packs real power in her shots and has a prowess for fighting that is undeniable.
Primarily operating out of a southpaw stance, Barber's best weapons are her crosses and kicks from the rear.
Since moving shop to train with Team Alpha Male, Barber has shown slight improvements to her technique and fundamentals.
Nevertheless, Barber is still not beyond crowding her work and will need to be careful about crashing into the clinch with a judoka such as Ribas.
Barber definitely does the most damage in closed quarters via elbows, but she'll also be running the risk of being taken down.
In her defense, Barber has shown the ability to strike and scramble from bad positions before. However, it's more athleticism than technique that's getting her out of trouble in these spots.
Ribas vs. Barber Pick
Even though the oddsmakers opened this fight close to a pick'em, money has been trickling in on the Brazilian, listing Ribas -200 and Barber +163 as of this writing.
Despite being a big fan of Ribas (and not so much a fan of Barber), I'm admittedly a bit surprised to see the line widening for what I believe is a volatile fight on paper.
Barber's big swings may not score as high for those who have an eye for striking, but that doesn't change the fact that the 25-year-old prospect throws with real power and has a style that's proven to catch the eyes of the judges and gen pop alike.
Top 15 flyweights come face-to-face at the #UFCJacksonville ceremonial weigh-ins.
Ranked 9th, Amanda Ribas aims to ascend further. Maycee Barber, who sits at 11th, is ready to make her mark.
Who takes a step closer towards title contention? Share your predictions!#WMMA#UFCpic.twitter.com/HW0B4H8kIM
— Women's MMA Rankings (@WMMARankings) June 24, 2023
"The Future" has also gotten better about using her lead hand from southpaw as a checking shot that I see being extra potent on someone like Ribas. Although Ribas has made offensive improvements to her striking, her defense is still too porous for my liking, and I'm not sure I can trust her chin.
That said, if Ribas and her team can come in and execute a good game plan that involves grounding Barber as soon as possible, then she should have an opportunity or two to submit the American.
I'm gonna attack Ribas vs Barber from a betting perspective in two ways.
First, I'll be playing "fight doesn't go the distance" (+150 via FanDuel) based on my analysis that, stylistically, this will be a volatile fight from start to finish.
However, if it does somehow make the final bell, I'll also be on Barber's moneyline (+170 via Caesars and bet365) given that she'll likely be the more damaging fighter whose style plays toward the judges' scoring.
Not only is Barber my official pick for the fight, but the increased value from the betting market makes it an even more justifiable betting play.
The Picks: Maycee Barber (+170 at Caesars) | Amanda Ribas vs. Maycee Barber doesn't go the distance (+150 at FanDuel)
