For many MMA fans, fight day wouldn't be complete without a UFC Jacksonville parlay or two to sweat.
UFC Jacksonville takes place Saturday afternoon with prelims on ESPN (11:30 a.m. ET) and the main card on ABC (3 p.m. ET), live from VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Florida.
With 13 fights on the network-televised card, UFC Jacksonville parlay options are plentiful. And I've put together a traditional parlay, as well as a same game parlay, for the fight card.
Let's dig into those UFC parlays for Saturday's early network-televised event.
*Odds as of Friday
UFC Jacksonville Parlay
Leg 1: Trevor Peek by KO/TKO (+135)
If you have ever seen Trevor Peek fight, this pick won’t need much analysis. There is a reason oddsmakers have listed implied odds of 65% for this fight to end in under 1.5 rounds and an 84% chance it will not hit the scorecards.
Peek is now training full-time for the first time and is taking on a short-notice opponent in Jose Mariscal who seems willing to meet him in the middle of the octagon and exchange.
Getting plus-money on Peek’s most obvious win condition feels like a gift.
Leg 2: Brendan Allen by KO/TKO or submission (-105)
This is another fight in which fireworks can be expected with -290 odds to end inside the distance. I am confident Brendan Allen will want to implement a game plan that limits the time he is standing in front of Bruno Silva.
Allen has won four consecutive fights and has finished his opponent in seven of his 10 UFC victories.
While a submission is Allen’s likeliest win condition, a late-round TKO is on the table as well if he can drag Silva into deep waters.
Allen got the fight to the mat in each of his last three fights, and he should do the same on Saturday afternoon in order to avoid exchanges with the dangerous Silva on the feet.
Leg 3: Justin Tafa by KO/TKO (-115)
Justin Tafa has six career wins in MMA with all coming by way of knockout. He is a slick boxer for the heavyweight division and carries big power in his counter shots.
His opponent, Austen Lane, will be making his UFC debut, and despite fighting lesser competition, Tafa still has the edge in strikes landed per minute, striking accuracy and striking defense.
More importantly, Lane has three knockout losses on his record, most notably a 57-second starching courtesy of former UFC fighter Greg Hardy on the Contender Series back in 2018.
Lane will try to use his six-inch reach advantage to strike from distance, but ultimately a heavy-handed power shot will put him down, maintaining Tafa’s KO win rate at 100%.
The Pick: UFC Jacksonville all-stoppages parlay (+757) |
UFC Jacksonville Same Game Parlay
Same-game parlays on DraftKings give bettors an opportunity to correlate fight results to extract the most value from a given outcome. At UFC Jacksonville, Neil Magny’s win condition gives us a chance to flip the odds more than two-to-one for a fighter currently sitting at around -180 to get the victory this weekend.
Magny excels in pushing a grinding pace on his opponents and exploiting their weaknesses. He has landed takedowns in each of his past four victories, with multiple takedowns in three of those bouts. While Magny’s 42% takedown accuracy may not be that impressive at first glance, his relentless nature is reason for optimism that he will get the fight where he wants it.
When Magny is controlling the pace and has the grappling advantage in controlling position, he has pressed it to the max, as displayed by his five takedowns of Daniel Rodriguez, four of Robbie Lawler, four of Li Jingliang, and six of Carlos Condit.
Piledriver#UFCColumbuspic.twitter.com/1eoYB3Y3Mc
— Jed I. Goodman © (@jedigoodman) March 27, 2022
Phil Rowe’s 52% takedown defense is simply not going to hold up in this matchup. All four of his wins in the UFC have come by way of KO/TKO, so it’s fair to expect Magny to close the distance and press Rowe against the fence from the opening bell. Magny should be able to exceed his 2.4 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Magny has lost only to some of the divisions’ elite fighters in recent years, Rowe is not on that level. In every one of Magny’s last six wins, he has landed a minimum of 54 significant strikes. Along with the takedowns, fighting behind his jab and strong clinch work should again get him to 50+ significant strikes in a victory.
My UFC Jacksonville SGP legs include :
- Neil Magny moneyline (3way)
- Over 2.5 rounds
- Magny 1+ total takedowns in Round 1
- Magny 2+ total takedowns
- Magny 50+ significant strikes landed
