Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of UFC Jacksonville prop bets with oversized odds for Saturday afternoon's event.
The UFC event today airs on ESPN (11:30 a.m. ET) and ABC (3 p.m. ET) from VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville.
Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +20.0 units and a +10.6% ROI since forming a year ago.
This week marks the return of squad members Billy Ward, Bryan Fonseca, Tony Sartori, Dann Stupp, Clint MacLean and Dan Tom.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
Billy Ward: Jose Marsical by Decision (+650)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:15 p.m. ET
Legend has it Trevor Peek agreed to his MMA debut expecting a street fight, but he was surprised to find out he was being taken to an arena. While he presumably understands the sanctioned nature of his more recent bouts, you wouldn’t realize it while watching him fight.
Peek made a splash in his UFC debut, knocking out his opponent in the last second of the first round in one of the wildest fights I’ve ever seen. Peek scored two knockdowns, threw more standing hammerfists than I’ve ever seen (though to be fair, I’d seen all of 0 before watching Peek), and righted himself following all four of his opponent’s takedowns through sheer force of will.
Peek landed 51 of 86 significant strikes attempted all inside of one round, though the stats don’t do justice to just how significant those strikes were.
Now, put yourself in the shoes of somebody fighting Peek, such as Jose Marsical this weekend. What’s the best plan of attack? If it’s me, I’m building a game plan based around surviving the first round as cautiously as possible, before testing Peek’s suspect takedown defense in the later rounds.
While there’s no guarantee Marsical follows that plan – his nickname of “The Machine Gun” doesn’t suggest a measured approach – that’s why we’re getting such long odds on the decision line here. If you think Peek wears himself out before then, various iterations of Marsical late make sense as well – including same game parlays with his moneyline and round "overs" at plus-money.
But like Peek, I’m swinging for the fences with this pick at +600 odds.
The Pick: Jose Marsical via decision (+650 at BetRivers)
Bryan Fonseca: Neil Magny by KO (+700)
Contributor at The Action Network and combat sports host and on-air talent
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 2:25 p.m. ET
As a New Yorker, I don't love that two Brooklynites gotta fight, but it is what it is.
For this week's MMA Prop Squad longshot, we're going with Neil Magny by knockout. Phillip Rowe has come in 3.5 pounds over the 170-pound welterweight limit in two of his last three fights (though he made weight without issue this time).
Yes, Rowe has won three straight by stoppage, but he's stepping up in competition, and if you're missing weight multiple times within a year and a half, your body is taking a toll, especially as a soon-to-be 33-year-old.
Magny hasn't ever missed weight and has been a welterweight nearly his entire pro-MMA career. He's gone 3-3 in his last six, but everyone he's lost to would probably beat Rowe, especially Gilbert Burns, who submitted Magny in January.
My longshot bet is that the offensive-minded Rowe gets caught by the crafty Magny, getting stopped for the first time since his pro debut in 2014.
Magny allows Rowe to take chances, looks for room to counter effectively, and finds the opening that changes the fight.
Pick: Neil Magny via KO (+700) |
Tony Sartori: Brendan Allen by Round 1 Submission (+510)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 2:55 p.m. ET
We have a middleweight bout kicking off the main card with No. 13-ranked contender Brendan Allen taking on Bruno Silva. Allen enters this bout in tremendous form and has quite frankly been one of the more under-talked-about middleweights over the past couple of years.
Since joining the UFC, Allen is 10-2 with his two losses coming against current No. 7-ranked Sean Strickland and No. 15 Chris Curtis. A black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, he has built up a reputation as being one of the more dangerous grapplers in the 185-pound division, securing six submission wins over those 10 UFC victories.
Half of those submission victories came in the first round, which is a product of Allen's fast-paced style. At +510, it is worth taking a shot on him to pull that exact finish off once again.
I am expecting Allen to shoot for takedowns early and often, especially considering the power and chin Silva possesses. Through 31 professional fights, Silva boasts 20 knockout victories while having never been on the receiving end of a knockout.
He has, however, been submitted in six of his eight losses. Will Silva be able to stuff Allen's takedown attempts? Maybe, but the more relentless Allen is, the sooner Silva and his 71% takedown defense will be taken down like he was in his latest loss to Gerald Meerschaert, which ended via submission.
The Pick: Brendan Allen via Round 1 submission (+510 at BetRivers)
Dann Stupp: David Onama by KO (+500)
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 3:25 p.m. ET
In addition to my moneyline play on David Onama (+190), I'm taking a flier on the Missouri-based Ugandan fighter to score a knockout win over Gabriel Santos.
Again, it's not something I expect to happen all of the time, but I think it comes through more often than the +500 odds (16.7% implied win probability) would suggest.
I think the market may be down overall on Onama due to his recent loss, but there's no shame in dropping a majority decision to notoriously tough out Nate Landwehr.
I also think Onama is going to get a willing dance partner in Gabriel Santos in his UFC Jacksonville on Saturday He's also going to meet a fellow finisher in the Brazilian, who probably won't waste much time getting down to business.
Again, I think this bodes well for Onama, who possesses the type of quickness and lights-out power to hang with anyone in the featherweight division.
The big concern for Onama is his takedown defense. It can be porous at times, but he's going to get plenty of opportunities to work his magic on the feet.
Santos has never been finished, and his only loss came to UFC vet Lerone Murphy in Santos' recent UFC debut. However, Santos hasn't faced the type of athlete he's going to encounter with Onama. And with up to 15 minutes to find his openings – even if he's taken down a few times – I think Onama's got a great shot to end this one early.
The Pick: David Onama via KO/TKO (+500 at WynnBET)
Clint MacLean: Maycee Barber by KO (+460)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:25 p.m. ET
This play comes down to one thing for me, and that is the chin of Amanda Ribas.
Ribas constantly plays with her hands low and relies on her footwork to avoid opponents' strikes while not moving her head. Ribas is built tall and slim like a Whippet and belongs at 115 pounds.
Maycee Barber, meanwhile, is built like a tank and moved up to 125 because she couldn't make 115 anymore. Maycee is still just 25, and we are seeing improvements in her game every time she steps into the cage.
The one thing that she is really good at is throwing hellbows. When Barber gets in close, she goes to work with big smashing elbows – no matter if she is standing or in top position on the ground.
Over the course of a 15-minute fight, I believe that Barber will find the range and land a bomb.
Once Ribas gets hurt, she shoots panic takedowns, and Barber will be able to sprawl and brawl easily at that point.
Pick: Maycee Barber via KO/TKO (+460) |
Dan Tom: Josh Emmett by KO (+500)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:55 p.m. ET
I might not win any popularity contests with this pick, but I couldn't pass up on the plus money that's being posted next to Josh Emmett's name in the UFC Jacksonville main event this weekend.
Despite being one of the more vocal analysts in this space when it comes to praising Ilia Topuria, I find myself on the other side of the Georgian prospect for the very first time.
Topuria obviously has the higher ceiling and is the deserved favorite in this spot, but his inherent aggression and propensity to throw himself out of position could cost him against a devastating counter-puncher such as Emmett (who has scored 11 knockdowns in his last nine appearances).
It's not like we haven't seen Topuria caught and rocked by left-sided strikes in past fights in and out of the UFC, so don't be surprised to see Emmett's improved left hook and southpaw arsenal come into play on Saturday afternoon.
Topuria may have more ways to win this fight, but all paths lead to pocket exchanges with Emmett – more than justifying my flier on the American to win by knockout at 5-1 odds.
Pick: Josh Emmett via KO/TKO (+500) |
