Edson Barboza vs. Billy Quarantillo Odds
The UFC Kansas City co-main event on Saturday features a fantastic featherweight fight between Edson Barboza and Billy Quarantillo.
Despite dropping a decision to Shane Burgos in one of the more unheralded fights of 2021, Quarantillo bounced back in style with an impressive win over Alexander Hernandez in December.
Now seeking to establish some consistency and go on a run, Quarantillo will attempt to take another step up the proverbial ladder on Saturday's ESPN-televised event.
Barboza, who has not been seen since March of last year, will be looking to stop the bleeding of a two-fight skid and hold the proverbial door in regard to protecting his spot in the rankings.
Tale of the Tape
| Barboza | Quarantillo | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-11 | 17-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:36 | 12:07 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/21/1986 | 12/8/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.96 | 7.88 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 58% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.10 | 5.72 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 40% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.38 | 1.55 |
| TD Acc | 44% | 24% |
| TD Def | 75% | 58% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 1.2 |
In a matchup that has Fight of the Night written all over it, it's hard to imagine this battle between Barboza and Quarantillo being boring in any scenario.
Quarantillo, who is one of my favorite kinds of fighters, will sacrifice life and limb in order to build a pace that he can use to drown out his opposition.
Whether Quarantillo's jabbing the body to set up knees and uppercuts or unloading right hands around the guard, the American manipulates levels like it's second nature.
Quarantillo is also good about consistently mixing takedowns into the equation and is an incredibly active scrambler.
It doesn't matter if Quarantillo is in someone's guard or on his back, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt keeps incredibly active from all positions and is one of the few fighters to force a stoppage from strikes via a backpacking scenario. That said, Quarantillo's aggression will likely come at a cost against a tried and true striker like Barboza.
A dangerous Brazilian who initially made his name at 155 pounds, Barboza has decided to finish out his career in a division where he feels healthier.
Although Barboza's opponents can now match him a bit better in speed, the former lightweight's power – particularly in his hands – has translated nicely down at featherweight. The 14-year pro still targets the legs fairly regularly and isn't afraid to sprinkle in spinning assaults when feeling in stride.
However, despite maintaining a solid takedown defense rating, Barboza has technically given away takedowns to everyone who has attempted them since dropping down to 145 pounds. If Barboza finds himself taken down by Quarantillo, then the Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt cannot afford to be lackadaisical and settle for guard retentions as he has in the past.
Barboza vs. Quarantillo Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the American, listing Quarantillo -175 and Barboza +145 at DraftKings as of this writing.
Although I'm usually one to back proven veterans in plus-money spots, I have a hard time getting behind Barboza here.
Barboza's leg kicks and counter right hands will undoubtedly be live, but Quarantillo's insane durability and relentless pace are hard to bet against.
Quarantillo may have gotten his leg chewed up by Burgos, but Burgos was a boxing-centric fighter who sneakily changed things up in order to get the jump on his fellow New York native.
More importantly, Quarantillo was able to demonstrate the ability to deal with a hard kicker in his win over Gabriel Benitez, as well as demonstrated defensive improvements in regard to checking kicks in his most recent outing opposite Hernandez.
If Quarantillo attempts to pressure Barboza as he did Benitez, then the 34-year-old should be able to pour it on in Rounds 2 and 3 (assuming he survives the first).
Not only have pressure fighters traditionally troubled Barboza, but the Brazilian is also returning from a long layoff and fairly serious knee surgery. Couple that with the fact that Barboza has only won three fights in the last six years, and I'll take my chances with the chalk (as I'm already heavily invested in Quarantillo's money line).
If you're not feeling as bullish as I am, then perhaps take a gander at the "under 2.5 rounds" at nearly even money (-105).
Aside from getting a discounted price on the line, it also offers you a potential hedge given the violent and volatile nature of the matchup. But regardless of which side you choose, I believe that Quarantillo to win in Rounds 2 or 3 is the best bang for your buck from a value perspective.
I don't think you'll get great lines or scenarios to bet Quarantillo live, so sprinkling small on some big round numbers could save you the stresses of a live bet and serve as a bit of a safety net for anyone taking the 'dog shot on Barboza.
Pick: Billy Quarantillo in Round 2 (+600) |
Pick: Billy Quarantillo in Round 3 (+1100) |
