Max Holloway vs. Arnold Allen Odds
On Saturday at UFC Kansas City, the UFC is at T-Mobile Center in Missouri for a 14-fight card featuring a featherweight showdown between No. 2-ranked contender and former champion Max Holloway and No. 4-ranked Arnold Allen.
Holloway is returning from his June 2022 defeat to Alexander Volkanovski – the most decisive loss by Holloway in their trilogy, putting an end to that rivalry. It didn't seem as though Holloway had regressed so much as Volkanovski continues to improve. Still, Hollway is now relegated to a high-level gatekeeper role unless the champion moves up to lightweight permanently.
Allen, whom many thought should have competed for an interim title in place of Yair Rodriguez, is 10-0 in the UFC, but he's yet to go past the 15-minute mark in his professional career, and Holloway figures to test his cardio better than any opponent before.
While this is Allen's second straight main event, and I do suspect that he'll show the best cardio of his career after all that preparation (regardless of how the Calvin Kattar fight went), Saturday will mark the 12th consecutive five-round bout for Holloway.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections and utilize those factors to bet on the main event for UFC Kansas City: Holloway vs. Allen, which airs entirely on ESPN (5:30 p.m. ET) with a simulcast stream on ESPN+.
Tale of the Tape
| Holloway | Allen | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-7 | 19-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:48 | 12:12 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 12/4/1991 | 1/22/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 7.24 | 3.40 |
| SS Accuracy | 47% | 42% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.89 | 2.25 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 67% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.29 | 1.35 |
| TD Acc | 53% | 50% |
| TD Def | 84% | 76% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.4 |
Allen's first main event try with Kattar (at the UFC Apex in October) ended earlier than anticipated; Kattar tore his knee in the second round.
I bet on Kattar in several ways in that bout – on the moneyline (+100) and inside the distance (+340) – and I recommended betting him live after Rounds 2 and 3.
Holloway presents many of the same problems, and he will force Allen to answer the questions that I expected Kattar to ask of Allen down the stretch of a 25-minute fight. Holloway is the superior minute-winner on the feet, incredibly durable, and he offers some of the best cardio in combat sports history.
Allen doesn't have poor cardio, but he has never faced an opponent who fights at an exceptionally high pace, and he's not willing to be the one to force the issue. Holloway should double him up on volume in nearly every round.
I expect Allen to have his best success early. He hits extremely hard, is careful defensively, and is excellent off the counter. We know that Holloway is durable because he is also highly hittable, and I expect Allen to find opportunities to hurt the former champion early in this fight.
While Holloway's losses have come to former champions, he is 0-3 against Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor – both southpaws like Allen. And the Englishman seems consistently underrated in the betting market. "Almighty" hits harder and possesses the grappling upside, but I doubt that he can keep Holloway on his back, even if he hits lands a foot sweep.
Holloway worked extremely hard to improve his wrestling and grappling in preparation for the Volkanovski rematch. "Blessed" displayed those grappling chops in his win over Yair Rodriguez (he landed three of five takedowns and secured 6:49 of control time), and I expect the wrestling/grappling to be relatively even. Still, it will ultimately wear on Allen's gas tank more immediately.
I expect to see a close and competitive fight for at least the first 10 minutes before Holloway eventually pulls away. That's generally been the case with Holloway and other rising contenders in these main events (notably his wins over Kattar, Rodriguez and Brian Ortega).
I expect Allen to meet a similar fate on Saturday. To me, this is a levels fight. And as much as I like Allen, I think there is a gap between Volkanovski, Holloway and the rest of the 145-pound division.
Holloway vs. Allen Pick
I projected Max Holloway as a 61.3% favorite (-158 implied) in this fight and don't see value on either side of the moneyline. I do see a slight edge concerning the total, projecting the bout to go the distance 56% of the time (-128 implied), and I also see a slight edge on Holloway's decision prop (projected +172).
However, as mentioned in the above breakdown, I expect Allen to find his best success early before Holloway eventually pulls away late. Holloway doesn't carry significant power in any individual shot, but he can put an accumulation of damage on opponents.
Kattar, Rodriguez and Ortega could all take a sustained beating down the stretch of their losses. I'm not sure if Allen will be able to take that damage if it gets to that point (nor do I think his corner should or will let him), so I have no interest in playing Holloway by decision or betting the GTD prop on another Holloway fight that may see 400+ combined significant strikes.
I would take a look at Holloway's longshot late-round props like Round 4 (+1800) or Round 5 (+2500), but I'd prefer to bet Holloway in a Same Game Parlay with the Over 1.5 Rounds (-105 at DraftKings) when I expect Holloway's pace to start to break Allen.
Additionally, you can look to bet Holloway live after Rounds 2 or 3, when you may get odds closer to my SGP price (a pick'em number) or perhaps even plus money if Allen keeps things competitive early.
The Pick: SGP – Max Holloway & Over 1.5 Rounds (-105, 0.5u) at DraftKings | Live Bet Holloway after Round 2 and/or Round 3
