The UFC heads to Kansas City this weekend, with a 14-fight card headlined by welterweight contenders. Carlos Prates of the Fighting Nerds looks to improve upon his 4-0 UFC record, while Ian Machado Garry attempts to get back in the win column following his first career loss.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.M
UFC 314 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Kansas City Predictions & Luck Ratings
Ian Garry (-130) vs. Carlos Prates (+110)
It will be interesting to see how public perception shapes the betting lines in the UFC Kansas City main event.
On the one hand, Carlos Prates is a fun fighter with four straight knockout victories to open his UFC career, and represents the increasingly popular "Fighting Nerds" camp. So popular, in fact, the UFC sold official Fighting Nerd glasses the last time one of their members fought.
Prates is also relatively unproven, having never seen a third round in the Octagon and fighting lower level competition, with the possible exception of 37 year-old Neil Magny.
On the other hand, Ian Garry was one fight away from a title shot, and became the only fighter to take the undefeated Shavkat Rakhmonov to a decision. He's also deeply unpopular, and has gone to a decision in his past four fights.
Still, he's the far more battle tested and well rounded fighter of the two, and a deserving favorite. Especially considering this fight is scheduled for five rounds. Garry has five round experience, winning the third and fifth rounds against Rakhmonov. Prates is as well known for his quick knockouts as he is his love of cigarettes, so cardio likely isn't a strong suit.
I expect fans to push this line towards Prates later in the week, so you could snag Prates at plus money and likely score some CLV. However, I want to be on Garry's side. If we can wait out the line movement we likely see a better price, and if not late round/decision props will be another good option.
Verdict: Ian Garry Undervalued, but Wait
Ikram Aliskerov (-650) vs. Andre Muniz (+470)
Andre Muniz is undefeated in the UFC when not facing elite submission grapplers.
The 35 year old BJJ black belt is 6-2 overall in the promotion, with a pair of losses on the ground to Brendan Allen and Paul Craig. Outside of those matches, his mat skills have carried him to victory, including a submission win over the legendary grappler Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza.
Ikram Aliskerov, despite his Dagestani heritage, is more of a striker than grappler. He's scored first round knockout victories in each of his UFC wins. Which isn't to say he can't grapple — he picked up a submission on the Contender Series — but he's no Brendan Allen or Paul Craig.
Aliskerov is a deserving favorite for many reasons, but the line shouldn't be this wide. I expect cooler heads to prevail throughout the week and push things a bit closer, so I'm jumping in early on the underdog here. It could go bad in a hurry if he can't get a takedown, but at these long odds any path to victory is enough to justify a quarter-unit sprinkle.
BetRivers has the best line of +480 at the time of this writing.
Verdict: Andre Muniz Undervalued
Matt Schnell (-278) vs. Jimmy Flick (+225)
I see a similar dynamic in the flyweight matchup between Schnell and Flick, where Flick is a fairly one-note grappler who nevertheless has a clear path to success against Schnell. Flick is even more of a liability standing than Muniz — but Schnell is also much less of a threat than Aliskerov.
Schnell is 1-4 over his last five fights, with two of those losses coming via submission. He's also never landed a knockout in the UFC, so will probably be willing to engage the stronger grappler on the ground.
This line has already dropped somewhat significantly, with Flick as high as +270 on Sunday. Jump on his line before it moves any further, as I expect it to close with Flick closer to +200.
The best current line is +235 at ESPNBet.
Verdict: Jimmy Flick Undervalued
