Read our UFC Kansas City predictions for the Saturday, April 26, event at the T-Mobile Arena in Kansas City, Missouri. The entire card airs on ESPN+ starting at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 14-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and found plenty of value on the fight card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Kansas City Moneyline Projections
UFC Kansas City Prop Projections
Sean Zerillo: Roberto Romero vs. Timmy Cuamba
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:45 p.m. ET
Roberto Romero closed as high as a +850 underdog in a short-notice UFC debut, fighting up a division against David Onama (also fighting on this card) in Madison Square Garden at UFC 309 last November.
Onama was -280 (73.7% implied) to finish that fight inside the distance. Still, the smaller Romero (3" shorter, 4" reach discrepancy) hung in tough for 15 minutes and stayed competitive against a much bigger, more powerful opponent.
While I typically look to bet against fighters as favorites in their sophomore outings—after losing but overachieving as significant underdogs in their UFC debuts—Timmy Cuamba hasn't struck me as a UFC-caliber fighter.
Cuamba's lone promotional win came on Contender Series – in an APEX packed with a partisan crowd for the Las Vegas native. His opponent, Mateo Vogel, landed more significant strikes (67-43) in every round, secured the only takedown (4:04 to 0:06 control time), and should have won the fight. Still, the noise for Cuamba potentially swung the scorecards.
Due to the optics of the decision, the UFC failed to sign Cuamba. Still, he earned a short-notice opportunity—as a Las Vegas local—instead of Damir Hadzovic – fighting Bolaji Oki up a division.
His sophomore outing, back at Featherweight against Lucas Almeida – was more competitive, but Cuamba hasn't shown enough power or output to sway close rounds in his favor.
He's well-rounded, durable, and has good cardio, but Romero is the more explosive athlete and aggressive fighter with more finishing upside.
The matchup is favored to reach a decision, but Romero's pressure and forward optics should prove the difference.
I projected Roberto Romero as nearly a 63% favorite (-169 implied odds); bet his moneyline to -150.
The Pick: Roberto Romero -105 (DraftKings)
John Lanfranca: Matt Schnell vs. Jimmy Flick
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
Matt Schnell opened as a -275 favorite in his possible retirement fight against Jimmy Flick, but the line has moved in Flick’s favor since that point. I disagree with the line movement, and I believe this is the rare occasion where backing the man we know is about to retire presents the clear value side of the matchup.
While Matt Schnell has won just one of his last five bouts, the level of competition he has faced surpasses the level of fighters Flick has had to deal with since ending his own retirement in 2023.
Flick has just one victory in his four contests since his return, and that was over low-level Malcolm Gordon. Gordon nearly dispatched of the extremely fragile Flick before giving up his back in a manner you may only see at the beginning levels of jiu-jitsu.
Schnell, while having some submission losses on his record, will make no such mistake in the grappling exchanges. Those submission losses, most recently one in his last octagon appearance, are the exact reason this line presents such immense value.
Novice bettors are seeing Flick’s path to victory as viable if Flick can get the fight where he wants. However, Flick’s 21% takedown accuracy over his UFC career is unimpressive, and against a better athlete who also happens to hold the height, reach, and striking advantage, there is plenty of meat on the bone here, even at the chalk of -162.
Neither man is durable at this stage of their career, but it is much more likely Schnell knocks out Flick than the other way around. Flick has never won a MMA fight by knockout in 25 career bouts.
Schnell will also dictate where this fight plays out and he will be landing the cleaner strikes. Schnell did not want to lay his gloves down in the octagon on a losing note last September, opting to seek redemption by ending his career on a high note – which he will do this time around in convincing fashion.
The Pick: Matt Schnell -162 (DraftKings)
Billy Ward: Michel Pereira vs. Abus Magomedov
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:15 p.m. ET
In his last fight, Michel Pereira suffered the first setback of his middleweight run in the UFC. He had ripped off three straight wins in his new division — with the longest of those lasting just 66 seconds.
Then he ran into Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez, a relentless grappler who pushes a brutal pace. "Demolidor" has his usual strong first round, hurting Hernandez with vicious body shots in the opening minute before slowly succumbing to the grappling pressure of Hernandez.
His opponent this time is no Hernandez, though. While Magomedov was born in Dagestan, he was raised and trains in Germany and is a better striker than grappler. While he's used a wrestling-based gameplan in some of his UFC fights, he's clearly a level below Hernandez in that regard.
He's also nowhere near as explosive or athletic as Pereira, giving him less upside in the early rounds. Magomedov might have the slightly better cardio of the pair, this fight is just three rounds so that's less of a concern than it was for the Hernandez fight.
There's certainly a case to be made for taking Pereira's inside the distance line anyway, since his best moments at middleweight have all come in the first minute or so of the fight. However, we aren't getting a huge price adjustment, so I'll stick with the moneyline in case he banks two rounds and coasts to a decision.
The best odds are -142 at DraftKings, and I'd play him down to -155 before pivoting to his inside the distance line.
The Pick: Michel Pereira -142 (DraftKings)
