Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of UFC Kansas City prop bets with oversized odds for Saturday' Holloway vs. Allen event.
Each Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied a 25.7% ROI to date.
This week marks the return of squad members Tony Sartori, Dann Stupp and Bryan Fonseca.
Check out their prop bets for UFC Kansas City, which airs on ESPN and ESPN+ (3:30 p.m. ET) from T-Mobile Center in Missouri, below.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
*UFC Kansas City odds as of Saturday
Tony Sartori: Bill Algeo by Submission (+650)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:55 p.m. ET
To cap off the preliminary card, we have a featherweight bout between Bill Algeo and T.J. Brown. A black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Algeo possesses a strong grappling game that has led to six submission wins over his career.
While Algeo has preferred to stand and bang since joining the UFC, he may not have a choice in where this fight takes place as Brown loves to bring scraps to the mat. Since beginning his UFC journey, Brown has landed 3.62 takedowns per 15 minutes at 56% accuracy.
Also a BJJ black belt, Brown has relied heavily on his grappling time and again since his appearance on the Contender Series in the summer of 2019. He has now shot for four or more takedowns in six of his seven UFC bouts, a route he will likely take once again in this scrap against the bigger Algeo.
The problem for Brown is that, once on the mat, he is sometimes reckless and allows opponents to find the neck. We saw this play out in his loss to Jordan Griffin, a fight in which Brown landed all seven of his takedown attempts but ended up losing when Griffin locked in a guillotine choke.
Algeo's submission prop can be found as long as +650 because he has not submitted an opponent since 2019. However, if there were ever a time to get back in the win column via submission, it could come against Brown and his relentless pursuit of bringing fights to the mat.
Algeo is a guy who started his career with six submission wins over his first 15 fights, and at 13/2 odds, it is worth a shot at an underrated fighter to get back to his roots following his split-decision loss to Andre Fili last fall.
The Pick: Bill Algeo by Submission (+650 at BetRivers)
Dann Stupp: Clay Guida by Decision (+380), by Split Decision (+1400)
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
Hear me out on this one.
If a fight is expected to go to decision (and oddsmakers have lined this one at -185 to do so), and if Clay Guida is part of that fight, you have to at least consider a bet on him.
Then, to further sell you on this narrative, throw in these two other wild cards for Saturday:
- This fight will take place in front of a large crowd and not in the largely sterile atmosphere of the UFC Apex facility.
- This event will take place in Missouri, where the state athletic commission has regulated exactly two of the UFC's 642 events to date.
I'm not saying ever-active fan favorite Guida's going to win a decision simply because he can rile up a crowd whether he's winning or losing. And I'm not saying Guida will get the decision simply because a raucous crowd can sway inexperienced or impressionable judges.
But it sure as heck helps.
And when it comes to MMA judging, where nothing is guaranteed, I don't mind earmarking a few dollars to bet on the predictably unpredictable. (Besides, Guida could win this fight outright even without bad judging.)
Barring a one-sided beatdown from lightweight opponent Rafa Garcia, who does have a concerning submission game, Guida is live if he can make it the three rounds. He'll probably be outworked and out-landed, but Guida has enjoyed a 20-year knack for looking ultra-busy even if he's just swinging at air and belching between rounds.
At the current odds, I'm happy to split my Prop Squad bet and back Guida to win by decision and to win by split decision.
The Pick: Clay Guida to Win By Decision (+380 at DraftKings) | Guida to Win by Split or Majority Decision (+1400 at DraftKings)
Bryan Fonseca: Arnold Allen by KO (+600)
Contributor at The Action Network and combat sports host and on-air talent
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 p.m. ET
Just feels like Arnold Allen's time.
Dude is 19-1 and a perfect 10-0 in the UFC. He's been mostly dominant in what have been one-sided fights, most recently stopping Calvin Katter and Dan Hooker in hardly three rounds of total work during a 2-0 performance in 2022.
This is a life-changing chance for the 29-year-old Englishman, who'll stand across Max Holloway, a former featherweight champion, fresh off a third loss (probably should be only a second) to current champion Alexander Volkanovski, who pushed lightweight champion Islam Makachev in February.
At some point, the wars are going to catch up to Holloway, who's now 21-7. He'll be only 32 later this year, but he got an early start in the sport, turning pro in 2010 about three months before his 19th birthday. He's also been in the UFC for 11 years and has been a featherweight staple for most of them.
Holloway's had a chin, and he's never been knocked out, but Allen is very skilled on the feet and has a poignant straight left hand he'll lean on from the southpaw stance.
This bet's a longshot for a reason – it's why we do this – but in combat sports, you have a chin until you don't. Allen gets the sprinkle for me this weekend.
The Pick: Arnold Allen by KO/TKO or DQ (+600 at BetMGM)
