Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura Odds
On Saturday afternoon the UFC returns to The 02 Arena in England for UFC London and an important main event for the heavyweight rankings: Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura.
No. 5-ranked UFC heavyweight contender and Englishman Aspinall takes on No. 10-ranked Marcin Tybura in Aspinall's return to the UFC octagon after sustaining a knee injury in his July 2022 bout against Curtis Blaydes.
Before the injury, Aspinall was making a run toward UFC title contention while dispatching each of his first five UFC opponents in under seven minutes. He owns a 100% finish rate for his career, which includes 11 first-round wins.
Tybura is a 17-fight UFC veteran with wins in seven of his past eight bouts; his only loss over that span was to Alexnder Volkov via decision at UFC 267.
Compiling an 11-6 record at the UFC level is no easy feat. Still, we'll see if Tybura can claim the biggest win of his career in his second-career main event (he lost a decision to Fabricio Werdum in 2017) or if Aspinall can get his championship hype train back on the tracks.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections and utilize those factors to bet on the UFC London main event, which is part of an early fight card that kicks off at noon ET (9 a.m. PT) on Saturday afternoon.
Tale of the Tape
| Aspinall | Tybura | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-3 | 24-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 2:30 | 12:40 |
| Height | 6'5" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 258 lbs. | 246 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 78" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 4/11/1993 | 11/9/1985 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 7.41 | 3.55 |
| SS Accuracy | 65% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.87 | 3.31 |
| SS Defense | 64% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.00 | 1.39 |
| TD Acc | 100% | 33% |
| TD Def | 100% | 79% |
| Submission Avg | 2.0 | 0.1 |
The two fighters are comparably sized, but Aspinall is the far superior athlete.
Before his injury, Aspinall was truly a heavyweight-sized man with the speed of a middleweight; he is quicker than all of his opponents, but his power also seems to affect people differently when he touches them too.
That makes potential future fights against the speedy and technical Ciryl Gane or the power-punching Sergei Pavlovich so incredibly intriguing.
Aspinall is an excellent boxer – as a former training partner of Tyson Fury, who might help Fury prepare for his upcoming bout with Francis Ngannou – but his base skillset is jiu-jitsu (Aspinall's father is a jiu-jitsu instructor).
Dominant grapplers will always be the meta at heavyweight; it's much more challenging to scramble out from underneath a 265-pound fighter than it is against someone half your weight – and Aspinall has shown the ability to run through opponents on the mat.
His excellent striking creates obvious openings for level changes (he has secured all four UFC takedown attempts). I'm curious to see if Aspinall grapples more frequently as he ascends the heavyweight rankings and takes on progressively better strikers.
Still, this matchup is a potential opportunity for a highlight-reel knockout for Aspinall.
The most significant issue for Aspinall at this career stage is round experience – and potentially cardio. He's never been past the nine-minute mark in his professional career, and he lost both fights that have exceeded 1.5 rounds (one via disqualification).
Aspinall's cardio will be a question mark until he proves that it isn't. We haven't seen him extended in any bout and forced to show off his sustainability for 15 minutes or longer.
This is Aspinall's third consecutive main event, and I have had to state that potential cardio factor each time – but it's a significant question mark that will loom until we see Aspinall in an extended bout. Never mind that he's a year removed from knee serious knee surgery and likely hasn't been able to put in as much cardio work as he typically would before a fight.
Given the significant athleticism gap between these fighters, Aspinall might be able to finish Tybura quickly, then go back on the shelf and keep rehabbing until a potential title eliminator opportunity arises.
However, if Tybura can survive the first five to 10 minutes, he may have the opportunity to flip the momentum and suck the air out of the room – and Aspinall – with his wrestling.
Tybura doesn't have the same offensive submission skill as his opponent. Still, he is a stout defensive wrestler (79% takedown defense) who likes to stay chest to chest up against the fence, put his weight on his opponents, and occasionally look for level changes.
I'm not sure that Tybura has the better cardio in this fight – but his gas tank is certainly more proven. The fifth round was his best round against Werdum, and he's 9-3 for his career on the scorecards. Aspinall, meanwhile, has never seen a third round.
To cover his pricetag as this significant of a favorite – coming off of an injury, with unproven cardio and potentially competitive wrestling exchanges – Aspinall needs to win this fight quickly. He's an odds-on favorite to win inside of five minutes, something which has only happened once in Tybura's seven career losses.
Aspinall vs. Tybura Pick
I projected Tom Aspinall as an 80.2% favorite (-406 implied odds) in this matchup, and I don't see value on either side of the moneyline from a pre-fight perspective.
Aspinall should be the severely more dangerous fighter for the first five to seven minutes. Still, depending on the quality of his gas tank, the fight might get incredibly competitive beyond that point – if not flip in Tybura's direction, making him an intriguing live bet once he is out of the most immediate danger.
Live Bet Marcin Tybura after Round 1 (and potentially after subsequent rounds too), likely at a better price than his pre-fight moneyline, and as he comes into the majority of his win condition unless Aspinall immediately reinjures his knee on an early exchange.
From a pre-fight perspective, longshot stabs in Tybura to win in Round 3 (+2500), Round 4 (+4000) and Round 5 (+5000) are viable, given the potential cardio discrepancy in this matchup.
If he fully recovers from the knee injury – which included an MCL tear, a meniscus tear, and damage to the ACL – and shows that he can offer at least average cardio for the heavyweight division, Aspinall can be a potentially dominant heavyweight champion, given his balance of technical striking and grappling.
Still, there are reasons to speculate against his cardio – and overall health – just a short time removed from a significant injury. That's reason enough to pass on backing Aspinall at this price point, but also a reason to speculate on Tybura in the live market and potentially dabble in his late-round props.
The Pick: Marcin Tybura Live after Round 1
