The UFC heads across the pond for one of their annual events at the O2 Arena in London this Saturday. Headlined by former champion Leon Edwards taking on top contender Sean Brady, the 13-fight card goes down at a special 1:00 p.m. Eastern start time. The entire card airs on ESPN+ streaming.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC London odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC London Predictions & Luck Ratings
Sean Brady (-148) vs. Leon Edwards (+124)
Sean Brady comes into his second straight main event with an outstanding 17-1 pro record. What makes that record even more impressive is the fact that his lone career loss came to Belal Muhammad — who went on to defeat Leon Edwards for the UFC title two fights later.
The MMA math against their shared opponent certainly favors Edwards. The former champion took Muhammad to a decision — albeit a one-sided decision — while Brady was knocked out by Muhammad.
On the other hand, the champion's grappling heavy gameplan against Edwards likely works equally well for Brady, a BJJ black belt with solid takedown ability who regularly competes in pro grappling events.
Still, doing so over five rounds is difficult, and Edwards has yet to be finished in his MMA career. I'm leaning towards the favorite here, but the line is about right all things considered.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Morgan Charriere (-170) vs. Nathaniel Wood (+142)
Public sentiment is heavily on the underdog in this featherweight matchup, with about two-third of Tapology predictions on Nathaniel Wood. That's caused the price on Charriere to drop from -195 or so at opening down to -170 now.
I suppose I see the angle on Wood, who has far more UFC experience and has fought stiffer competition by and large in recent fights.
However, Charriere is the much more potent finisher, as the undersized Wood is yet to pick up a stoppage since stepping up to 145 lbs. Charriere has two knockouts wins in three UFC fights, and his only loss was a close split decision loss to Chepe Mariscal.
Considering Mariscal has dominated everyone else he's faced in the UFC, and most respondents thought Charriere beat him, I like his chances against the smaller opponent. Let's wait to see if the line comes in even more before betting it, though.
Verdict: Morgan Charriere Undervalued (But Wait)
Shauna Bannon (-180) vs. Puja Tomar (+150)
Other than perhaps "home field advantage" for the Irish Shauna Bannon, it's hard to explain why this fight is lined as anything other than a pick 'em.
Both women have one win in the UFC, and they each needed a split decision to get there. Bannon's came against Alice Ardelean, who stepped in on short notice and still arguably won the first half of the fight before running out of gas. Prior to that, Bannon suffered a one-sided loss to Bruna Brasil.
Tomar's lone UFC fight was also a split decision win, and she probably received some favorable judging of her own. Still, that puts both women's resumes on fairly equal footing.
The likeliest outcome here is a tight decision that could rightfully go either way, and we always want the plus-money ticket in those spots. For that reason, I'm jumping in on Tomar now. The best line is +163 at BetRivers, but I'd take the widely available +150s as well.
Verdict: Puja Tomar Undervalued
Lone'er Kavanagh (-290) vs. Felipe dos Santos (+235)
I almost never bet heavy favorites in the UFC, but on rare occasions it's justified.
Lone'er Kavanagh is one such occasion. One of my favorite prospects from last year's Contender Series, the 25 year old flyweight is the total package from a skills standpoint, with his only flaw potentially being his cardio.
A Chinese national with Irish roots who trains out of London, he's also likely to have the weight of the UFC promotional machine behind him, especially with this event in his adopted home town.
That explains the matchup with Felipe dos Santos, who holds a 1-2 record in the promotion, with the lone win coming via a debatable split decision. He's being brought in to this fight to make Kavanagh look good, not as a true test.
Some books have Kavanagh's line as high as -370, so the -290 at DraftKings is a solid value that likely doesn't last long. Of course, I wouldn't fault anyone for trying to limit the juice by waiting for his point spread or inside the distance lines to drop.
Verdict: Lone'er Kavanagh Undervalued
