Read our UFC London predictions for the Saturday, March 22, event at the O2 Arena in London, England.. The entire card airs on ESPN+ starting at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 13-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and found plenty of value on the fight card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC London Moneyline Projections
UFC London Prop Projections
Sean Zerillo: Marcin Tybura vs. Mick Parkin
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 2:50 p.m. ET
Mick Parkin is the bigger man (1" taller, 1" reach advantage, weighed 10 pounds heavier on Friday) than Marcin Tybura, but he is also ten years younger and much quicker on the feet. Still, the unbeaten Englishman will face his first significant defensive grappling test against Tybura, a veteran of 21 UFC fights.
Tybura has spent 45% of his cage time grappling – which is exceptionally high for a Heavyweight – and he's controlled 69% of those positions. He has attempted 2.6 takedowns per five minutes at a distance and has decent technique (33% accuracy) to complete those shots, but his entries are slow.
Still, if Tybura can gain top position, it could be the end of the round in his favor; and he has paths toward winning a decision via top control, or finishing Parkin via submission.
On the feet, Parkin has the better boxing (+1.1 to -0.1 strike differential per minute), and Tybura is the better kicker, but he's far less durable; Parkin is much likelier to land a standing knockout blow.
That said, Parkin doesn't carry significant power for the Heavyweight division, and he can stay safe on bottom if Tybura gains top position.
As a result, I don't give either fighter an exceptionally high chance of finishing (about 60% of either's win condition – and I projected this fight to reach a decision 61% of the time (-157 implied odds).
I'd rate both as below-average finishers, and three-round Heavyweight fights have gone to decision north of 50% since 2022, whereas Light Heavyweight and Middleweight fights have finished north of 60% of the time over the same span.
I projected this fight to reach a decision at -157 (61.1% implied); bet that prop to -145.
The Pick: Fight Goes to Decision (-120 at Caesars)
Bryan Fonseca: Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Felipe dos Santos
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 3:30 p.m. ET
I don't love Kavanagh giving up three inches in height and reach but I think he's so clearly better that it might not matter.
Kavanaugh is very well-rounded and projects to be dominant on the feet, where he'll be much quicker and stronger than the slightly more experienced Dos Santos. Kavanaugh has four knockout wins in his career, which comes as no surprise. There's a lot of power in that compact build, and not just from his hands.
His leg kicks are quick, timely and effective, and should make a difference given the speed gap between him and Dos Santos. Dos Santos hasn't yet been stopped in his MMA career, but his first time could legitimately come here if he isn't able to ground the undefeated Kavanaugh. Other than his length and reach, his biggiest disadvantage is probably on the ground.
Dos Santos has three submissions, though they all predate his unspectacular UFC run, which is 1-2 with a split decision win over Victor Altamirano. Kavanaugh is better, stronger, and there's upside in a knockout sprinkle at +275, even if it's likely that he gets this done on points.
I like the point spread because I believe this will be fairly one-sided as long as it lasts.
The Pick: Lone'er Kavanagh -3.5 (-110 DraftKings)
John Lanfranca: Morgan Charriere vs. Nathaniel Wood
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:15 p.m. ET
The main card opener at UFC London has the potential to be the most entertaining fight of the night. Eleven fight UFC veteran Nathaniel Wood takes on Morgan Charriere in what has the makings of a very competitive bout. Wood and Charriere have the exact same reach at 69 inches, have the exact same significant striking accuracy at 51%, and are within one percentage point in the same category defensively.
Morgan Charriere has the feel of a prospect at his point, despite actually having more professional fights than his opponent Wood. Charriere is two years younger than the veteran Wood, and while that may not seem like much of a difference, the accumulation of damage taken by the younger man here is one of the main reasons I see him as the more durable fighter.
Charriere has been to decision on 14 occasions throughout his MMA career, winning only five of those bouts. Against a fighter like Nathaniel Wood who is coming in looking to put a pace on his opponent and land with an abundance of volume, it may seem counterintuitive to make Charriere the favorite in a contest lined -250 (71% implied odds) to go over 2.5 rounds. However, when it comes to winning moments, I’m confident Charriere will be the one delivering the bigger shots that judges seem to favor.
Charriere has never suffered a loss by way of knockout, which should allow him to move forward and be more aggressive, especially in the early going of the fight. This should negate any disparity there may be in total strikes thrown if the fight does get to the scorecards, but that is not what I am expecting to happen.
Wood has not suffered a knockout loss in over five years in the UFC, but you cannot ignore the signs that he may be ripe for the taking against a fighter as explosive as Charriere. With the grappling neutral, I expect the fight to play out in kickboxing range for the majority of the fight, where Charriere unleashes kicks without a hint of telegraph.
Wood has been rocked or hurt several times in his career and it’s just a matter of time before a damaging shot boils over and materializes into a finish. Simply put, I believe Charriere has the skills to make it happen on Saturday en route to a very impressive showing.
I recommend playing Charriere’s moneyline for a full unit to ensure profit when he gets his hand raised, with a quarter unit wager on the KO/TKO method of victory.
The Pick: Morgan Charriere -140 (BetMGM) | By KO/TKO +390 (FanDuel)
Billy Ward: Gunnar Nelson vs. Kevin Holland
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:45 p.m. ET
Anybody who plays fantasy baseball is familiar with the concept of two Shohei Ohtanis existing. There's Ohtani (pitcher) and Ohtani (hitter), who are treated as separate entities.
I propose we do the same thing with Kevin Holland, and hereby refer to him distinctly as Kevin Holland (middleweight) and Kevin Holland (welterweight). That's how drastic the difference in effectiveness has been for "Trailblazer" in recent years.
Kevin Holland (middleweight) has been finished in the first round in two consecutive bouts, getting thoroughly dominated in the grappling department by Roman Dolidze and Reinier de Ridder.
Kevin Holland (welterweight) went 4-3 the last time he appeared, with one of those losses coming via an unfortunate hand injury, and another via split decision to upcoming title challenger Jack Della Maddalena. All four of his wins came via finish.
It's Kevin Holland (welterweight) who made the trip to London this weekend, where he had no problem on the scales for his bout with Gunnar Nelson. Nelson has the grappling style that on paper is well suited for this matchup. However, he's also 37 years old with just two fights in the past five years.
On top of that, he's a small welterweight who will have to overcome a nine inch reach discrepancy against Holland (welterweight), an especially difficult task in the full-size UFC cage being used this weekend. I'm not sure he's able to corner Holland (welterweight) long enough to take him down — or do much with any takedowns he does land.
After all, Holland (welterweight) is an accomplished grappler in his own right, with submission wins over Tim Means and Michael Chiesa. That is the benefit of not giving up 20+ pounds of fight day weight to opponents like de Ridder and Dolidze.
The best price on Holland is +104 at FanDuel, and I'd make him a moderate favorite here. I'd bet his moneyline odds down to -110.
The Pick: Kevin Holland +104 (FanDuel)
