Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of UFC London prop bets with oversized odds for Saturday afternoon's event.
Each Prop Squad installment features a handful of UFC props from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts. Over the past year, they've tallied +27.7 units of profit and a 13.2% ROI per bet.
This week marks the return of squad members Bryan Fonseca, Tony Sartori and Dan Tom, who have a trio of UFC props for Saturday afternoon.
Check out their picks for the event, which streams on ESPN+ at noon ET (9 a.m. ET) from The O2 Arena in England, below.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since UFC prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
Bryan Fonseca: Ketlen Vieira via Submission (+700)
Contributor at The Action Network and combat sports host and on-air talent
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 1:15 p.m. ET
Ketlen Vieira is long overdue for a submission victory.
The Brazilian bantamweight, who looked like a sure contender while 10-0 to begin her mixed martial arts career, has been an even 3-3 since her 17-month layoff between March 2018 and December 2019, leading up to her first loss.
Four of her first nine MMA victories were by submission, including an arm-triangle submission victory over Sara McMann at UFC 215 nearly six years ago.
Vieira, who is a double black belt (Brazilian jiu-jitsu and judo) has a decent bounce-back opportunity against fellow top-10 bantamweight Pannie Kianzad to record what would be her first win in more than a year.
Vieira's last four wins – over Holly Holm, Miesha Tate, Sijara Eubanks and Cat Zingano – were all by decision. Kianzad has won five of six, but she's been away from the octagon since April 2022. Vieira, who most recently lost to Raquel Pennington in January, has fought twice since.
Kianzad is 16-6 but has tapped twice in her MMA career: once to Macy Chiasson in The Ultimate Fighter Women's tournament final in November 2018, and once in Invicta FC less than two years prior.
Kianzad hasn't faced a grappler at Vieira's level arguably ever as a pro, and while the old adage would indicate that you'd want to test your opponent's chin after a long layoff, in MMA, you extend that to cardio as well. I think Vieira controls this on the mat and looks for submission attempts while in her offensive flow.
The Pick: Ketlen Vieira via submission (+700 at BetRivers)
Tony Sartori: Jai Herbert via Submission (+1800)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 3:25 p.m. ET
On the UFC London main card, there is a lightweight bout between Jai Herbert and Fares Ziam.
I believe that this is one of the more dynamic fights on the main card and is a scrap that could definitely go either way. There has been a good amount of steam on Ziam this week, with the line being bet up from a near pick'em to his current price of -170.
The line movement makes sense, and I can see why money is coming in on Ziam; he looked tremendous in his latest win over Michal Figlak. He displayed his strong striking and ability to change levels, landing three takedowns and accumulating nearly seven minutes of control time.
With that said, there were multiple instances of Figlak nearly securing submissions from his back, though Ziam was able to change course during the exchanges. However, could that be an issue against Herbert?
Yes, Ziam is the better all-around fighter, but Herbert is an extremely tough guy to get rid of in the cage. Herbert possesses a very active style, regardless of whether he is standing, in top position or fighting off his back.
Even during grappling exchanges, he is constantly working and looking to land strikes or attack submissions, the latter of which is something he did numerous times in his latest draw against Ludovit Klein. I think there is definitely a world in which Ziam takes down Herbert but gets submitted while in top position.
But even if that is not the case, we have seen Herbert utilize his own takedown offense and actively look for submission opportunities. Again, Ziam is the better fighter and rightfully favored, but 18-1 on Herbert's submission prop is just too long of a number on something he will attempt at least once during this fight.
Pick: Jai Herbert via Submission (+1800) |
Dan Tom: Tom Aspinall by Round 1 Submission (+650)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:25 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to take an angle on UFC London's headliner between Tom Aspinall and Marcin Tybura.
Although Tybura is a durable Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who has yet to be submitted as a professional, I believe that Aspinall provides the perfect storm for an early submission loss.
Aside from the fact that club-and-subs are always on the table for a fighter like Aspinall, Tybura has had a bad habit of fighting his opponent's fight for the first frame (and subsequently losing first rounds in victory or defeat because of it).
Tybura also has the propensity to turtle to his base from negative positions or occasionally commit underhooks from half-guard – all of which are bad options against an offensive dynamo like Aspinall.
Not only is Aspinall a lifelong Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner and black belt, but the English fighter also appears to be the superior wrestler of the two.
Either way, there's a whole lot worse you could do than turning a -500 favorite into a potential +650 prop.
Pick: Tom Aspinall by Round 1 submission (+650) |
