Jared Cannonier vs. Nassourdine Imavov Odds
| 10:30 p.m. ET | |
Here's everything you need to know about the Jared Cannonier vs. Nassourdine Imavov odds for UFC Louisville on Saturday, June 8 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
The UFC will travel to the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky, on Saturday for an important main event in the middleweight division between No. 4-ranked UFC contender Jared Cannonier and No. 7-ranked Nassourdine Imavov.
Saturday will mark the sixth main event of Cannoniner's UFC tenure. He's 4-1 in those matchups (3-1 in decisions) with his only loss coming to Israel Adesanya for middleweight gold at UFC 276. Since that loss, Cannonier defeated eventual champion Sean Strickland in a split decision and landed a middleweight record 241 significant strikes against Marvin Vettori. Cannonier has proven five-round cardio, but he's also 40 and had MCL surgery last October.
Imavov will make his third main event appearance. He defeated Roman Dolidze in the UFC Apex in February but lost to Strickland in January 2023, and his stamina wasn't championship caliber in either matchup.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Louisville main event and utilize those factors to bet on Cannonier vs. Imavov, who should make their cage walks at approximately 10:25 p.m. ET (7:25 p.m. PT) on ESPN and ESPN+.
Tale of the Tape
| Cannonier | Imavov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-6 | 13-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:53 | 15:08 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 75" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/16/1984 | 3/1/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.1 | 3.3 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.44 | 0.87 |
| TD Acc | 42% | 31% |
| TD Def | 63% | 76% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 1.5 |
Imavov is the taller fighter, but Cannonier has the reach advantage and, as a former heavyweight, is the more muscular man and more powerful puncher in the fight.
Canoniner's athleticism is remarkable – you wouldn't know that he is 40 or that Imavov is over a decade younger. Typically, when there is at least a 10-year age gap between UFC opponents, the younger fighter is undervalued by around 11% in this spot, winning 71.2% of the time at average odds of -150 (60% implied).
Still, Cannonier has shown superior cardio and output during his middleweight run, especially recently. His performance against Vettori was astounding; Cannonier attempted 411 strikes (16.4 attempts per minute) while mixing in six takedown attempts (3:07 of control) across that 25-minute fight. Fighters would typically gas out from throwing that many strikes – with so much power – especially in their late 30s. And almost any fighter except Vettori, who has otherworldly durability, wouldn't stick around long enough to absorb a divisional record worth of strikes from Cannonier.
Cannonier should have the cardio advantage in this fight. However, I have reservations about his age and potential athleticism regression shortly. In addition, his October MCL surgery could impact both his movement and cardio (depending on how it affected his training for this fight).
Imavov is taller (4"), but both fighters like to land long, straight punches, and Cannonier has the reach advantage (2"). Imavov will also work behind his teep kicks and look to mix in takedown attempts to keep Cannonier honest.
Cannonier has solid takedown defense – and an urgent getup game once he's on his back – but I don't see Imavov landing many takedowns or consolidating top position for extended stretches if he does get the fight to the mat. Imavov has an excellent top game and should have a grappling edge if he can put Cannonier flat on his back, but he'll face difficulty keeping "The Killa Gorilla" down in scrambles.
Imavov may need to showcase his defensive wrestling, too. He's been out-grappled in the past (controlled for 11 minutes by Phil Hawes), and being forced to defend takedowns or getting cage-pushed has shown to tire out Imavov. I could see Cannonier using his strength to grind Imavov up against the cage or shooting for a takedown to mix things up, as he did in the Vettori fight. Imavov's offensive grappling is superior to his defensive skillset.
That said, he likely needs some offensive grappling success to win this matchup, or at least to cover his price tag. Cannonier hits harder, offers superior output, and should have the cardio advantage in the championship rounds.
As a result, I'd look to live bet Canonnier after Round 2; he should have vastly superior body language in the late stages of the fight. And waiting allows you to avoid an early knockout (Cannonier is getting consistently wobbled early in recent fights) and see how he's moving on that surgically repaired knee.
Cannonier vs. Imavov Pick
In this matchup, I projected Nassourdine Imavov as a 52.4% favorite (-110 implied odds). Cannonier is the superior athlete, but the age gap – and Cannonier's recent knee surgery – are significant, correlated concerns.
I expect Cannonier to win the later rounds at a higher percentage than the early rounds; live bet on Cannonier anytime after Round 1.
I expect this fight to end inside the distance 55% of the time (-121 implied odds), slightly below the middleweight average of 58.7% (-142 implied odds). I also project value on Cannonier to win by KO/TKO (projected +320, listed +400), which I'll include as a round-robin piece.
Bet the Under 4.5 Rounds (+120) or the Fight to End Inside the Distance (+105) in this middleweight scrap.
Cannonier's age and recent injury increase Imavov's finishing equity. Cannonier has a pair of knockout losses in the UFC, albeit at light heavyweight and heavyweight.
On the flip side, Imavov has shown concerning body language in the late rounds of his fights; if Cannonier maintains the same pace and pressure he put Vettori under, he will eventually break Imavov. I'd also consider some dart throws on Cannonier to win in Round 4 (+2500) and Round 5 (+2900).
The Picks: Fight Ends Inside the Distance (+105 at Caesars) | Jared Cannonier Live Anytime After Round 1
