Dominick Reyes vs. Dustin Jacoby Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Dominick Reyes vs. Dustin Jacoby odds for UFC Louisville on Saturday, June 8 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
The UFC Louisville co-main event features a 2o5-pound showdown between veterans Dominick Reyes and Dustin Jacoby.
Despite arguably beating the legendary Jon Jones back at UFC 247, Reyes has since experienced a precipitous fall so steep that even the most cold-blooded gamblers can sympathize.
Now, on the heels of a 0-4 skid that extends back to 2020, Reyes will attempt to stop the bleeding against one of the more active fighters in the division.
Now four years into his second UFC run, Jacoby has proven to be a tough out during this second stint at 205 pounds.
Tale of the Tape
| Reyes | Jacoby | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-4 | 19-8-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:25 | 11:00 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 204.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 76" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/26/1989 | 4/4/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.8 | 5.5 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.8 | 4.1 |
| SS Defense | 48% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| TD Acc | 28% | 25% |
| TD Def | 80% | 60% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.0 |
Although Reyes and Jacoby are deceptively well-rounded athletes, each fighter traditionally makes their money in the striking realm.
A product of Factory X Muay Thai under the respected Marc Montoya, Jacoby has steadily sharpened his stance-switching sensibilities.
Putting more feints in front of his offense, Jacoby has gotten a lot better about disguising his entires – all while keeping a varied shot selection.
Despite not being shy about hunting the head, Jacoby quietly makes a ton of hay off of lower-extremity attacks like leg and calf kicks.
Jacoby will likely have to switch stances to land said strikes on a southpaw like Reyes, but the 36-year-old has proven that he's up to that task in prior fights with a similar stance pairing (officially standing 2-4 opposite UFC-level lefties).
One of the speedier southpaws in the division, Reyes' athleticism shines through in his fast but explosive movements.
Possessing some solid accuracy from his power side, Reyes loves to line up his patent kicks and crosses off of a southpaw jab.
Reyes wields some hard counterhooks that can keep his opposition honest, but he largely does his best work when he's allowed to dictate exchanges from range.
Given Reyes' recent follies on the feet, I'll be curious to see if the 34-year-old changes gears and goes to the decent transitional grappling game that he keeps in his back pocket.
Jacoby isn't the easiest to get down, but grappling has always been a serious enough threat to put "The Hanyak" on defense.
Reyes vs. Jacoby Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the more active fighter, listing Jacoby -240 and Reyes +200 as of this writing.
Despite being a big fan of Jacoby's and expecting to roll with him here, it's hard to recommend a play on the former Glory kickboxer when you consider both his price tag and his history with southpaws.
Aside from having a .500 record against UFC-level lefties, Jacoby's common culprits, from either stance, are left-sided strikes.
Whether Jacoby's eating repeated left hands from Khalil Rountree and Azamat Murzakanov or giving a round away by getting dropped via an Alonzo Menifield left hook, the 14-year pro has proven to be a bit shaky when paired with big punchers.
The stock has never been lower on Reyes, but the man is a sniper with his left-sided strikes.
Whether it's by knockout or by a close decision, I believe that Reyes has more than enough upside to justify a small stab on anything north of a 2-1 underdog odds.
I don't blame anyone for disagreeing with me that this is a 'dog-or-pass spot, so I also suggest taking a look at plus-money angles involving overs or the fight going to decision.
Aside from Jacoby quietly being one of the lesser threats to Reyes' suspect chin at this weight class, I wouldn't be surprised to see both men fight much more cautiously given that durability has cost each of them to differing degrees.
Add in the usual circus of regional MMA judging (Saturday's event is in Kentucky) and Jacoby's propensity to fight close, and I'll also also be sprinkling on split-decision props.
The Pick: Dominick Reyes (+200 at Ceasars)
