Check out the latest UFC Louisville odds with our best bets for the Saturday event, which features middleweights Jared Cannonier vs. Nassourdine Imavov in the ESPN main event.
UFC Louisville takes place tonight at KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky. The full card is available on ESPN and ESPN+ beginning at 5 p.m. ET (2 p.m. PT) for the preliminary card and 8 p.m. ET for the main card.
So where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed three fights and four picks on Saturday’sfight card that present betting value.
Below, you can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's projections using odds from BetMGM.
UFC Louisville odds for matchups as of Saturday afternoon and via BetMGM. Bet on UFC Louisville with our BetMGM promo code.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
Sean Zerillo: Thiago Moises vs. Ludovit Klein
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:25 p.m. ET
Ludovit Klein (-135) has looked much improved since moving up to lightweight. He has added muscle to his frame and is showing improved strength and cardio fighting in a more suitable division.
Thiago Moises (+110) has faced a higher level of competition – including current champion Islam Makhachev – but he needs grappling success to win this fight, and I'm not sure if he can get Klein to the ground.
Klein has shown some grappling holes when you put him on his back, but he offers solid first-layer takedown defense (83%) and is the much stronger and better athlete in this matchup. Moises has high-level jiu-jitsu but is a subpar wrestler (1.6 takedowns per 15 minutes, 44% accuracy).
While both fighters maintain a relatively low-volume striking style, Klein's technical prowess, striking power and two-inch reach advantage should prove the difference.
Klein also offers solid fight IQ. I expect him to use his wrestling defensively to sprawl and brawl against Moises. Klein has actively pursued takedowns in other fights where he's had a grappling advantage.
Moises is a solid fighter, but I view him as a gatekeeper meant to test the grappling of potential lightweight contenders, and I expect Klein to pass with flying colors. He should land substantially more damage.
I projected Klein's moneyline price at -145 and would bet that line to -135. Also, consider his KO/TKO prop (listed as +330) or inside-the-distance prop (listed as +175) on round-robin tickets.
The Pick: Ludovit Klein (-125 at Betway)
Dann Stupp: Julian Marquez vs. Zachary Reese
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
Julian Marquez (-145) seems like a perfectly swell fella, but as far as his prospects as a fighter these days, I think it's time to cash in the chips when he faces Zachary Reese (+120) on the UFC Louisville main card.
I think this could be our final chance to get favorable odds as we fade Marquez, a 34-year-old fighter who's competed just twice in the past three-plus years and who's coming off back-to-back knockout losses in those sporadic performances.
Meanwhile, fans may best remember Reese from his slam-KO loss to Cody Brundage back in December. Before that, though, the 30-year-old proved to be a fast starter after going 6-0 with six first-round stoppages. Granted, the level of competition was pretty low, but those quick finishes do prove that he's willing to engage and dictate the pace of that fight.
I think that will key against Marquez, who's going to face a serious height (two inches) and reach (five inches) disadvantage while also being less athletic and likely less active. As the fight wears on, the effectiveness of Marquez's wrestling is also likely to quickly fade.
That's not a great recipe in a 50-50 fight, let alone one in which we're getting some solid +120 underdog odds on Reese.
The Pick: Zachary Reese (+120 at ESPN BET)
Tony Sartori: Brunno Ferreira vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC main card features a middleweight bout between Brunno Ferreira (-275) and Dustin Stoltzfus (+220). Ferreira is a large betting favorite, and for good reason.
With all due respect to Stoltzfus, he is just simply not a very good mixed martial artist compared to his peers within the UFC. We are so fortunate that Stoltzfus has two wins over his past three fights – because that is the only reason Ferreira is shorter than -300 in this bout.
Now is the time to sell high on a guy whom I don't imagine will be in the UFC too much longer. Those two aforementioned wins came against Punahele Soriano and Dwight Grant, whose combined are 2-8 combined over their past five fights.
Stoltzfus beat the bottom of the barrel to remain in this promotion, but now he is going against the surging 11-1 Ferreira. The Brazilian is a finishing monster with all 11 of his professional wins coming inside the distance.
Nine of those 11 wins occurred in the first round (!!) as Ferreira has blown through everyone not named Nursulton Ruziboev, who is very skilled in his own right (and miles ahead of Stoltzfus). I expect Ferreira to do the same against Stoltzfus, who got stopped in his latest loss just 19 seconds in against Abus Magomedov.
Ferreira is better and far more ferocious than Magomedov, and I make this fight as a layup for the 185-pound prospect.
The Pick: Brunno Ferreira in Round 1 (+160 at FanDuel)
Billy Ward: Brunno Ferreira vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET
In a 12-fight professional career, Bruno Ferreira has been out of the first round just twice. In each of those fights, things have ended within the first 70 seconds of Round 2.
While it’s true that just because something has happened in the past doesn’t make it a guarantee to continue, everything about the Brazilian’s fighting style screams “good time” not “long time.”
He’s an extremely aggressive brawler who’s equally happy both giving and receiving. He’s also a massively superior athlete to his UFC Louisville opponent Dustin Stoltzfus, a fairly technical fighter who’s been finished in three of four UFC losses.
The best path to victory for Stoltzfus here is probably on the ground, where he’s a creative submission artist with a black belt in luta livre (a Brazilian grappling art that was essentially a no-gi answer to Brazilian jiu-jitsu in the early days of BJJ).
Typically, submission rates decline throughout the fight as well, as fighters both tire and become more sweaty and slippery.
That means both men have their best shot at getting things done early, and this prop is a better price than Ferreira by knockout – while also leaving the door open for an upset.
As a hedge, I’m also interested in betting Stoltzfus live after the first round. While his odds of a finish will go down, Ferreira could fade heavily if he’s forced to fight longer than his typical six or so minutes.
The Pick: Ferreira-Stoltzfus Under 1.5 Rounds (-128 at FanDuel)
