Check out our early UFC predictions for this Saturday, June 8, with our UFC Louisville Luck Ratings.
The UFC returns on Saturday with UFC Louisville at KFC Yum! Center in Kentucky. The full card is available on ESPN and ESPN+ beginning at 5 p.m. ET (2 p.m. PT).
We have a middleweight main event between top-10 UFC contenders Jared Cannonier and Nassourdine Imavov, who are looking to position themselves in a wide-open 185-pound division.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or in which one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
Here are my UFC Louisville early preview and betting picks.
*UFC Louisville odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Louisville with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Louisville Predictions & Luck Ratings
Nassourdine Imavov (-135) vs. Jared Cannonier (+114)
By the time I started looking into this weekend's lines, there had already been some noteworthy movement toward Nassourdine Imavov. He opened between -120 and -125 throughout the industry with most books now listing him around -140.
That makes sense to me intuitively, largely thanks to the age gap between the fighters. Jared Cannonier turned 40 since his most recent fight last summer while Imavov is arguably just entering his prime at age 28.
Imavov is 5-2 in the promotion with a no-contest to Chris Curtis. Imavov has won the first round on all three judges' scorecards before the early stoppage, though there was plenty of fight left. His two losses are a majority decision to Phil Hawes in 2021 and a unanimous decision to Sean Strickland last year.
Since dropping down to 185 pounds, the former heavyweight and light heavyweight Cannonier is 7-2 in the promotion. His two losses were both against former champions in Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker while he also has a tight split-decision win over a third champion in Strickland.
Essentially, based on resume, this fight should be about a pick'em, but we have to project a degree of decline from the much older fighter. If you think that's worth about 10% win probability, Imavov is the sharp bet. You could also pick up some easy CLV by betting Imavov at Caesars Sportsbook, where he's still -130 on Monday afternoon.
I don't think it's a priority to bet this one early, though. I prefer to get in some more tape study throughout the week, even if it comes with a slightly worse price.
Verdict: Imavov Slightly Undervalued
Julian Marquez (-135) vs. Zachary Reese (+114)
It's not a great sign for the quality of a card when we have a main-card bout between two fighters who've combined for zero UFC wins since 2021. That was the last time Julian Marquez saw his hand raised, and he's gone 0-2 with two knockout losses since then.
Zachary Reese is a relative newcomer to the promotion with a 0-1 record thanks to a vicious slam from Cody Brundage in his debut. That's not a great sign, considering it's Brundage's only non-DQ win in his last five bouts.
However, that's also a fairly fluky result, and Reese had a tight triangle choke locked in prior to the slam.
Which is a fairly sharp contrast to Julian Marquez's last two losses, both of which were fairly one-sided beatings. I also don't love the inactivity from "The Cuban Missile Crisis" with just two fights in the past 38 months.
All of which makes the line movement here slightly surprising as Reese opened as a favorite. I'm going to get greedy to see if it will continue, but I will likely bet on the now-underdog at some point this week.
Verdict: Zach Reese Undervalued
Brad Katona (-625) vs. Jesse Butler (+455)
I've made it a point to fade recent Ultimate Fighter competitors, which has broadly speaking worked out for me. My general thesis is that since the advent of the Contender Series, the level of competition on the reality show is much lower. The best prospects are choosing to find their way to the promotion through a one-night event rather than give up months of their lives to a reality show.
Brad Katona is a two-time TUF winner, originally getting to the UFC by winning Season 27 in 2018 before getting cut and then winning Season 31 last summer. He officially has a 3-3 record in the UFC, but two of those wins were the tournament championship bouts (and thus competing against other TUF contestants.)
Which means he's 1-3 in his other UFC bouts with the lone win coming against Matthew Lopez, who ended his UFC career at 2-4.
He's a massive favorite against Jesse Butler on Saturday. That's partially due to Butler's performance in his UFC debut, a 23-second knockout loss to Jim Miller. In Butler's defense, he took that fight on a few days' notice, against the man with the most fights and wins in UFC history.
Getting caught early by Miller doesn't tell us much about Butler, and these lines are far too confident in his lack of ability. Katona should be the favorite here, but not at this price point.
The +455 on DraftKings is considerably ahead of the rest of the market, so I'm sprinkling a quarter unit before it falls back in line.
