Check out our UFC picks for UFC Louisville with our favorite long-shot UFC prop bets for Saturday, June 8.
UFC Louisville takes place at KFC Yum! Center in Kentucky, and the entire event is available on ESPN and ESPN+ beginning at 5 p.m. ET (2 p.m. PT).
Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +20.8 units and a +5.2% ROI per bet during two years of action.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
UFC Louisville odds for matchups as of Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel. Bet on UFC Louisville with our FanDuel promo code!
Billy Ward: Jesse Butler Moneyline (+520)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:35 p.m. ET
I’m going to start by saying this: I know this isn’t a prop bet. Still, it’s at least within the spirit of the Prop Squad, considering it’s a 5-1 option at the time of this writing.
With that out of the way, I can’t believe this line on Jesse Butler (+490). It’s almost certainly based on the result of his UFC debut, a first-minute knockout loss to Jim Miller last June. However, that result comes with some major caveats.
Butler took that fight on a couple of days' notice, against the UFC’s all-time leader in octagon appearances. He also took it two weight classes up, with his UFC Louisville fight against Brad Katona (-670) taking place at 135 pounds instead of 155. Butler seemed to have no issue on the scales for this matchup.
I’m also continuing my mostly profitable trend of fading recent Ultimate Fighter contestants with this pick. The logic is that since the advent of the Contender Series, most of the UFC-ready talent finds their way to the promotion that way, rather than a lengthy reality-show appearance.
Katona is the winner of two TUF seasons (27 and 31) of the post-Contender Series. He’s officially 3-3 in the UFC across two stints, but two of those wins were the tournament finale bouts, so he’s 1-3 otherwise.
This fight is also heavily favored to go the distance in a state (Kentucky) where questionable judging is fairly likely. Given that factor, Butler might not even need to really win this fight in order to win this fight.
While it’s totally reasonable to question Butler’s skill set given the lack of octagon time, he shouldn’t be this heavy of an underdog against a lower-tier UFC opponent.
The Pick: Jesse Butler (+520 at FanDuel)
Clint MacLean: Charles Radtke by Submission (+1000)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
I am just not sold on Carlos Prates. While he was able to show out in his UFC debut with a massive knockout win over Trevin Giles, Prates was losing the fight up until that point.
However, Prates has huge power, and if he connects, he can make your eyes roll to the back of your head.
Charles Radtke (+172), meanwhile, is a brawler who will close the pocket and get in close, where the length of Prates (-205) will be a hindrance as opposed to a positive.
One of the most underrated aspects of this fight is the grappling. "Chuck Buffalo" is a strong wrestler and very good offensive grappler, and avoiding his opponent's bombs might be easier if Prates is on his back. If Radtke can get this fight to the mat, he will have a pretty significant grappling edge, and I believe he can find his way to a finish.
The Pick: Charles Radtke by Submission (+1000 at FanDuel)
Tony Sartori: Julian Marquez by Submission (+500)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC main card features a middleweight bout between Julian Marquez (-142) and Zachary Reese (+120). The steam is certainly on Marquez, who opened at -104 before being bet up all the way to his current number.
That was a poor opening number, which I believe is due to the on-paper advantages Reese possesses. He's nearly four years younger while boasting a two-inch height and five-inch reach advantage.
However, the difference in skillset far surpasses those physical differences, and that advantage clearly goes to Marquez. Reese will want to utilize his reach to keep Marquez at distance, but the far more explosive and powerful Marquez should have no issue closing that gap and bringing this fight to the mat.
Reese's Contender Series opponent, Eli Aronov, immediately landed a takedown in the first round but then gave up his arm from top position. That is simply not a mistake that Marquez will make.
Reese then followed up that performance with a first round loss to Cody Brundage, who also landed a takedown immediately and slammed Reese into unconsciousness. The betting underdog is light for the division in terms of weight due to his lanky build, and that presents a horrible matchup against Marquez who should have no issue landing a takedown immediately.
Once on the mat, we know that Marquez can make Reese tap, given that each of his past three wins have come by submission. I don't think Reese is all that good relative to the level of talent in the UFC, but this is a particularly terrible matchup for someone who has struggled with defending takedowns.
The Pick: Julian Marquez by Submission (+500 at FanDuel)
Dan Tom: Raul Rosas Jr. by KO (+900)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to target a main-card attraction on ESPN between Raul Rosas Jr. (-230) and Ricky Turcios (+190).
Aside from the fact that the UFC is clearly trying to build up Rosas as a prospect, this fight – from a styles perspective – should favor "El Nino Problema."
And with the oddsmakers and the public arguing over Rosas' methods of victories via "by submission" or "by decision," I believe that the 19-year-old's most likely path to victory is currently being overlooked and undervalued.
Turcios may carry some on-paper advantages in the striking department due to his background in taekwondo and kickboxing, but his willingness to accept an ugly fight will likely play right into the hand of a superior positional scrambler like Rosas.
Turcios' Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt will probably allow him to keep his perfect submission defense record intact, which will only funnel Rosas' offense into the form of ground and pound.
For that reason, I believe that playing Rosas to win "by KO/TKO/DQ" is the way to go given both the insane price differential and the fact that the youngster has yet to show that he can reliably pace himself to win a decision at this point in his career.
The Pick: Raul Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO/DQ (+900 at BetRivers)
