Check out our UFC Macau predictions for the Saturday, November 23, event in Macau that starts at a special early time of 3 a.m. ET (midnight PT).
Our MMA experts have studied this weekend's 13-fight lineup for their UFC best bets. And we've found plenty of value on the card.
The entire event streams live on ESPN+ starting at 3 a.m. ET, with the main card officially kicking off at 6 a.m. The 13-fight card features the conclusion of the Road to the UFC tournament, that pits top Asian prospects in a tournament for an official UFC contract.
So where should you look to place your UFC Macau bets? Our crew has pinpointed its favorite picks on the Yan vs. Figueiredo fight card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from DraftKings.
UFC Macau odds for matchups as of Friday. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
UFC Macau Predictions
Billy Ward: Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Jose Ochoa
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:00 a.m. ET
My favorite prospect from 2024's season of the Contender Series was Lone'er Kavanagh. The London-based fighter has part Chinese heritage, and checks a lot of boxes for the promotion in terms of broad marketability.
That explains the relatively quick turnaround to get him on the Macau card, after he picked up a first round knockout on the Contender Series back in August.
Kavanagh is a vicious counter striker with a traditional martial arts background, who also has underrated grappling ability that he didn't get a chance to showcase on the Contender Series. He's matched up with Jose Ochoa, a fellow undefeated flyweight with six knockouts in his seven pro fights.
There's not a ton of tape on Ochoa, but from what I saw he likes to march forward and apply pressure. That's the exact wrong style against a fighter like Kavanagh, who will meticulously pick apart advancing opponents.
Plus, Kavanagh should have the edge on the ground from what I've been able to determine in fairly limited sample sizes for both men.
I don't want to lay the heavy juice on Kavanagh since he's around a -350 favorite. However, we can still get plus-money on him to finish this fight inside the distance. That's the likeliest outcome in my eyes, so I love getting it at +115 odds.
The Pick: Lone'er Kavanagh ITD +115 (FanDuel)
Sean Zerillo: Kenan Song vs. Muslim Salikhov
Senior Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:45 a.m. ET
Song Kenan and Muslim Salikhov are nearing the end of their promotional runs. Salikhov enters his 12th UFC bout with a 2-4 record in his past four fights, including a close split decision in his most recent win over Santiago Ponzinibbio. Song is 2-3 in his past five fights but looked slow-footed and relatively flat in his recent win over Ricky Glenn.
Both men are relatively low-volume strikers, but Salikhov is the more efficient distance fighter. Salikhov outlands his opponents by 0.6 significant strikes per minute, compared to a poor -1.8 differential for Song, who falls behind on volume while setting up big power shots against his opposition.
Salikhov has the offensive grappling upside in this matchup, too (attempts 1.4 takedowns per 5 minutes at a distance, 33% accuracy). Still, at 40 years old, the King of Kung Fu would rather limit the grappling exchanges in his fights; wrestling can tire him out much more quickly than distance striking.
I don't trust the gas tank for either fighter, though I would lean toward Song – six years younger than Salikhov – on cardio and durability. Still, both fighters like to keep a low to moderate pace tempo, and I don't see a finish materializing consistently.
I expect this fight to reach a decision nearly 62% of the time (-163 implied odds), and I'd bet the distance prop to -150. I prefer to lay a bit more juice to play the Over 2.5 Rounds instead of the distance prop; to remove some of the cardio-oriented, late-finish equity on either side of this matchup between two aging welterweights.
The Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds (-138 at Betway)
Tony Sartori: Petr Yan vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 a.m. ET
In the Petr Yan (-300) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (+250) main event, the steam is heavily on the favorite. Yan opened at -250 before being bet up to his current price, and I agree with the steam.
However, I see little value in laying three dollars on the large favorite. Instead, I want to look into his method of victory props, which are as follows:
- Decision (+125)
- KO/TKO (+210)
- Submission (+2300)
I think we can safely rule out the 23/1 longshot on his submission prop, given that he is a striker with just one submission victory across 22 professional and three amateur bouts. On the other hand, Figueiredo has tapped just once across 28 professional fights.
That leaves Yan's decision and KO/TKO props, which are rightfully the two most likely outcomes. While I believe in Yan's power, I believe even more firmly in Figueiredo's chin.
The latter's only KO/TKO "loss" was a doctor's stoppage against Brandon Moreno, a fight in which Figueiredo wanted to continue. In my opinion, the only reason that these two outcomes are even this close in odds is because there is an inherently larger risk of a finish at 135 pounds versus 125 pounds.
However, he's gone three rounds against both Rob Font and Marlon Vera at 135 pounds, two guys with similar knockout rates to Yan. Subsequently, I think that there is a good amount of value in Yan's decision line at +125.
I trust Yan's 85% takedown defense to keep this fight on the feet, where he should be a step ahead of the older Figueiredo. Yan lands at a much higher clip while simultaneously defending strikes at a 7% higher rate.
It's not often that Yan is the larger fighter at 135-pounds, which should serve as yet another advantage for the betting favorite.
Finally, we are catching a particularly valuable price on Yan's decision prop at +125 via FanDuel, a line that is five-to-25 cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing.
The Pick: Petr Yan by Decision (+125 at FanDuel)
