Check out our UFC picks and our favorite longshot UFC Macau props for Saturday, November 23.
The UFC is finishing up their "Road to the UFC" tournament Saturday, with the finals going down as part of the 13-fight card from the Galaxy Arena in Macau. Due to the time zone shift, the prelims start at a special time of 3:00 a.m. ET, with a 6:00 a.m. Main card, all on ESPN+.
Our MMA Prop Squad has 3 long shot picks for the 13-fight card.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
UFC Macau odds for matchups as of Friday. Bet on UFC Macau with our DraftKings promo code!
UFC Macau Prop Picks, MMA Prop Squad Predictions
Billy Ward: Ozzy Diaz vs. Mingyang Zhang
Staff Writer at Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:15 a.m. ET
China's Mingyang Zhang will be the betting and fan favorite as he makes his second official UFC walk early Saturday morning. The light heavyweight needed less than two minutes to pick up a win in his debut, a knockout over Brendson Riberio.
In fact, all 17 of his professional wins have been in the first round, with none even passing the four minute mark. He's an aggressive striker willing to exchange in the pocket, trusting his power and chin to be better than his opponents.
On the other hand, he's 0-3 in fights that have made it out of the first round, so he's a major cardio liability. Ozzy Diaz doesn't have the pure power to exchange with him early, but hopefully comes prepared to take Zhang into deeper waters by refusing to trade with him early.
Diaz has a height and reach advantage here, which should serve him especially well in the larger cage the UFC is using for the event. He's also likely to pick up a finish himself if he does pull off the victory, with all nine of his pro wins inside the distance.
I'm taking Diaz to weather the initial storm, then pull of the finish in the second round. This is admittedly a fairly thin needle to thread, but there's a reason we're getting fourteen-to-one odds.
The Pick: Ozzy Diaz in Round 2 +1400 (FanDuel)
Tony Sartori: Volkan Oezdemir vs. Carlos Ulberg
Contributor at Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:45 a.m. ET
Saturday's UFC main card features a light heavyweight bout between the No. 8-ranked contender, Volkan Oezdemir (+195), and No. 10 Carlos Ulberg (-225). The steam is on Oezdemir, who opened as a +210 favorite and has since been bet down to his current price.
I agree with the steam, but I think there is even more value in his KO/TKO prop at 5/1.
This is one of those fights where we have a surging prospect going against a tough veteran, and we often see these veterans undervalued in a spot that is sometimes too big of a leap for an unproven fighter. Perhaps it is unfair to categorize Ulberg as "unproven", given that the Contender Series veteran is 6-1 with five finishes since his debut in 2021.
However, he is still going against a guy with far more cage time in this promotion in Oezdemir, who is nearing his eighth year in the promotion. Oezdemir has shared the cage with some of the best light heavyweights in the world during this run, including Daniel Cormier, Anthony Smith, Jiri Prochazka and Magomed Ankalaev.
That is an abundance of top-tier talent, something Ulberg hasn't dealt with yet. His six wins have come against opponents with a combined 33-29-2 record in the UFC.
The longest tenured fighter Ulberg has faced is Kennedy Nzechukwu, who knocked Ulberg out in the second round. A similar result could be in store for Oezdemir, a guy four knockouts over his past seven wins.
The Pick: Volkan Oezdemir by KO/TKO (+500 at FanDuel)
John LanFranca: Song Kenan vs. Muslim Salikhov
Contributor at Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:45 a.m. ET
Muslim Salikhov is coming off a split decision win as an underdog against a fighter who had lost four of his six previous fights in an aging Santiago Ponzinibbio. Salikhov, now 40 years of age, is listed as a favorite over a fighter six years younger, and more importantly, much faster than him in Song Kenan. The wrong fighter may be favored here.
Salikhov likely has the benefit of the doubt from oddsmakers due to his perceived grappling advantage, but his 33% career takedown accuracy should be concerning if you are looking to back him. Salikhov was 0-for-5 on takedown attempts in his previous bout, and didn’t get a chance to attempt a takedown against Randy Brown before he was knocked out.
In fact, Salikhov has been finished by KO twice in his previous five fights – it is clear his durability is waning. We are getting a great price on Song by KO/TKO on Saturday simply because he failed to finish the fight last time we saw him against somebody the market perceived as fragile.
While Kenan Song is not going to overwhelm you with volume, he does have three KO victories on his UFC resume and had enough power to knock down Ian Garry in Round 1 of their bout. Song’s best punch, his overhand right, is the exact punch that put the lights out for Salikhov just nine months ago.
I am willing to take my chances the more powerful and faster man can land a fight-ending strike on the aging Salikhov.
The Pick: Song Kenan by KO/TKO +550 (FanDuel)
