The UFC's road trip continues with UFC Mexico, live from Arena CDMX in Mexico City this weekend. Headlined by native son and former champion Brandon Moreno, the 13-fight card starts at 4:00 p.m. ET and airs on ESPN2.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.M
UFC Mexico City odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Mexico City Predictions & Luck Ratings
Brandon Moreno (-198) vs. Steve Erceg (+164)
The flyweights at the top of the card are both looking to get back into title contention. Moreno emerged from his tetralogy against Deiveson Figueiredo with the title in 2023, only to lose it to current champion Alexandre Pantoja in a close split decision.
Erceg has his own loss to Pantoja in recent memory. Erceg entered the fifth round of his fight with Pantoja tied at 2-2 on the judges cards, but dropped the fifth following an ill-advised takedown attempt. His stock fell further after that bout, suffering a first round knockout loss to Kai Kara-France in August of last year.
When Moreno and Kara-France met, Moreno was the one doing the finishing, which is a good sign for the former champion here. Each of his last two losses were close split decisions, and he's never been finished in his career.
Everything is pointing to Moreno, and he should also be more familiar with the altitude in Mexico City. Late round props or even live bets are an option to exploit the potential cardio edge, but I'm also comfortable jumping in on his moneyline before it moves any further. The best current odds are -195 at Caesars, but I'd take anything inside of -200.
Verdict: Brandon Moreno Undervalued
Christian Rodriguez (-142) vs. Melquizeal Costa (+120)
The UFC's favorite prospect killer is back, with Christian Rodriguez making his second walk of 2025 at UFC Mexico.
In seven UFC fights, "C Rod" has four wins over previously undefeated prospects. All of those fighters had plenty of hype behind them, particularly fellow UFC Mexico combatant Raul Rosas and recent victim Austin Bashi.
While Rodriguez has a frustrating loss to Julian Erosa mixed in between those matchups, this is otherwise a considerable step down in competition for the Roufusport product.
Melky Costa is 22-7 as a pro and 3-2 in the UFC, with his wins all coming against much lower level competition than Rodriguez's.
I expected Rodriguez to be closer to a -200 favorite in this matchup, making the -140 line at ESPNBet feel like a steal.
Verdict: Christian Rodriguez Undervalued
Ateba Gautier (-535) vs. Jose Medina (+400)
I've had solid results lately mixing in some heavy underdogs, which makes sense in a sport as high variance as MMA.
My favorite sprinkle along those lines this week is on Jose Medina, a former veterinarian whose best attribute to date has been his ability to withstand punishment. Medina took plenty of damage in his (unsuccessful) Contender Series fight, as well as his UFC debut against Zach Reese.
He'll need that durability against Ateba Gautier, a free-swinging striker with a massive hole in his grappling. I pointed that out ahead of Gautier's DWCS appearance, and he went on to be controlled for more than four minutes in the first round before picking up the second round knockout.
Medina isn't an elite grappler by any stretch, but he has a relatively clear path to victory should he choose to take it. That's the kind of fighter I'm looking to target at +400 odds.
The market seems to agree with me, as the line has moved back in since opening a bit north of the current line. Grab the line at DraftKings or ESPNBet while you still can, as most books are offering around +350.
Verdict: Jose Medina Undervalued
