Read our UFC Mexico City predictions for the Saturday, March 29, event at Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico. The entire card airs on ESPN+ streaming and ESPN2 starting at 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 13-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and found plenty of value on the fight card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Mexico City Moneyline Projections
UFC Mexico City Prop Projections
Billy Ward: Ateba Gautier vs. Jose Medina
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:45 p.m. ET
I've been on Jose Medina all week, and fortunately for those who tailed we've seen considerable line movement in his direction since Monday morning. The downside of that is that his moneyline — which now stands at a less exciting +350 or so — isn't as strong of a bet as it was at +400.
However, there's a couple of additional angles that work around the same thesis.
As I noted in my Contender Series breakdown on Medina, he has a largely grappling-based style. Not only did he show plenty of takedowns on the regional scene, but he's also sporadically competed in submission grappling between MMA bouts.
Medina is just 1-for-3 on takedown attempts in the UFC/Contender Series, but that's largely due to the matchups he was presented with. His Contender Series appearance came against a Russian Sambo stylist who picked up six takedowns of his own. Then he faced Zach Reese in the UFC, who is also known for his grappling and wrestling.
Medina gets a very different matchup this time around against Ateba Gautier, a pure striker with five straight knockout victories as a pro. Gautier is the far superior athlete but very raw, and was taken down and controlled for more than four minutes in the first round of his Contender Series fight.
Due to the matchup dynamics at play, the market is underrating Medina's chances of success via grappling in this matchup. He's +225 at DraftKings to land even one takedown, the first of my two bets here. The other is Medina by submission, which is +1900 at FanDuel — his least likely win condition. I'm taking the former for a quarter unit, and the latter for 0.1 units.
The Pick: Jose Medina Over 0.5 Takedowns +225 (DraftKings) | Medina by Submission +1900 (FanDuel)
John Lanfranca: Edgar Chairez vs. CJ Vergara
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:40 p.m. ET
Two flyweights light on recent victories will meet in the octagon on Saturday in a contest that feels crucial to their trajectories of their careers. Edgar Chairez is listed as high as a -295 favorite at some books, and while I believe he is the rightful favorite, the value play is on the total in this UFC Mexico prelim bout.
When CJ Vergara is having success, it usually comes by way of activity and volume. Pressuring his opponents was a must for a fighter who didn’t have many advantages in size or athleticism against other UFC-caliber fighters. The issue for Vergura will be balancing an aggressive style with the fact he is coming off a knockout loss.
Chairez has the power and length advantage, but Vergura has the cardio edge. Vergara will not want to over commit on his strikes given his potentially questionable durability. Extending the fight to make sure Chairez’s endurance holds up at altitude will undoubtedly be the gameplan, which makes me believe a more passive attack from the underdog will be in order.
Testing the 33% takedown defense of Chairez may also be in the gameplan for Vergara; with any grappling success, the fight will almost assuredly be extended. Even in a case where the fight plays out entirely on the feet, it is not likely we see a knockout finish. Chairez has just two knockout victories over the last six years, while Vergura has just one in his six UFC appearances.
Lastly, it’s worth noting over the last three UFC events at elevation, there have not been many fights ending in knockout. Removing a doctor’s stoppage and two injuries, there have been just three bouts ending in KO over the other 32 fights (9.3%) at elevation.
The Pick: Vergara vs. Chairez Goes to Decision -110 (FanDuel)
Sean Zerillo: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:30 p.m. ET
Joe Pyfer is the bigger man (5" taller, 4" reach advantage) and the more natural middleweight against Kelvin Gastelum – a former title challenger at 185 pounds.
Pyfer is the far better athlete and carries significant power relative to the division. Still, Gastelum has proven himself to be one of the most durable fighters in the sport's history—never getting knocked out despite absorbing damage from some of the best fighters in the UFC's history.
And he's been competitive in those outings, with a neutral strike differential at range per minute. Conversely, Pyfer has barely eclipsed unranked competition from distance (+0.2 margin per minute).
Due to Gastelum's elite strength of schedule, ELO ratings view him as the better fighter; still, he's at a serious athletic disadvantage in this matchup and needs Pyfer – who has struggled with cardio beyond the first round (since he often finishes opponents quickly) – to wilt at altitude.
Gastelum has shown elite cardio at sea level but has also fought at elevation in Mexico City. I'd expect him to take over momentum in the back half of the fight, provided Pyfer doesn't finish him first. As a result, you can bet on Gastelum Live after Round 1.
Pyfer's best path may be to grapple, as Gastelum struggles with takedown defense (59% career) andsubmission defense, and stronger opponents can hold him down.
Still, unless Pyfer fishes a submission, I'd expect this fight to go to the scorecards more often than the market suggests. I set that line at -120 and bet the distance prop to -115.
The Pick: Fight Goes to Decision +100 (FanDuel)
