Let’s look for some value with UFC Mexico early betting for Saturday and see which fighters are overvalued and which are undervalued heading into the ESPN+ event.
UFC Mexico: Moreno vs. Royval 2 takes place at Arena CDMX in Mexico City, and the entire 13-bout fight card is available on ESPN+ beginning at 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. ET).
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
*Odds via DraftKings and as of Monday. Bet on UFC Mexico with our DraftKings promo code.
Brandon Moreno (-258) vs. Brandon Royval (+210)
Frequently, there are UFC main events that I include in this article despite them not really giving us much "luck" to look at. This is not one of those cases. There's plenty to unpack in this UFC Mexico main event on Saturday.
The most noteworthy element is that these two already fought once before, back at UFC 255 in 2020. That fight ended somewhat inconclusively with Royval injuring his shoulder while grappling late in the first round.
Prior to that point, Royval was having a bit more success on the feet, landing both more and heavier shots. Moreno went two-for-two on takedown attempts with some dominant position, and would've won the round had it completed.
Both men are also coming off title losses to flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja, with Moreno dropping a close split decision and Royval a more clear unanimous judgment.
Another wrinkle is that this fight is at extreme elevation in Mexico City, which is higher in altitude than either Salt Lake City or Denver. Royval trains at elevation at Factory X outside of Denver while Moreno trains in Las Vegas. That favors Royval in theory – though he also took this fight on somewhat short notice about five weeks ago.
None of this is a clear indication that either fighter is being mispriced by the market. However, I'd lean toward Royval being undervalued here. Their first meeting was reasonably close before the injury, and the five weeks of prep he had for this one is nearly a full camp. No rush to bet this UFC Mexico headliner, though, as we may be able to catch a better number later in the week.
Verdict: Brandon Royval Slightly Undervalued
Raul Rosas Jr. (-275) vs. Ricky Turcios (+225)
Mexican phenom Raul Rosas Jr. rebounded from his first career loss with a dominant performance in September, finishing Terrance Mitchell with strikes from mount in under a minute. He'll be looking to keep that momentum going while fighting on home turf against Ricky Turcios.
The UFC learned their lesson after Rosas' loss to Christian Rodriguez last year, and the company is now giving him a second consecutive soft matchup in Turcios. While Turcios is 2-1 in the UFC, both of those wins were split decisions, and he was taken down a total of 13 times in each of his "wins."
(MMA fans in the Tar Heel State: Check out the latest developments on the launch of North Carolina sports betting online.)
That's the perfect opponent for Rosas – identical UFC record, but massive defensive grappling flaws.
While I don't love saying a fighter at nearly -300 odds is undervalued, I also can't say Rosas doesn't win this fight at least 75% of the time.
I took this line at -260 on Sunday night, and it's continued to grow ever since, so grab it now before it moves even further.
Verdict: Raul Rosas Jr. Undervalued
Manuel Torres (-135) vs. Chris Duncan (+114)
Whenever the UFC travels outside of the U.S., the fight promotion's matchmakers seem to make a concerted effort to send the hometown crowd home happy. That's no different this time with plenty of favorable matchups for Mexican fighters.
Manuel Torres has the makings of a legitimate contender at bantamweight with a 13-2 pro record marred only by two leg submissions suffered on the regional circuit. Including his bout on the Contender Series, he's 3-0 for the UFC with three first-round knockouts.
Chris Duncan needed two fights on the Contender Series to earn his way into the UFC octagon after suffering a knockout loss in his first appearance. He's now 2-0 in the UFC proper – but with a pair of decisions (one split) over fighters with a combined UFC record of 4-5.
Not that Torres' level of competition is any higher, but he at least decisively won those fights.
I worry slightly about the stylistic matchup here since Duncan is a grappler, but Torres is 6-for-6 on takedown defense in the UFC, which mitigates that concern.
Jump on Torres now before this line extends even further.
Verdict: Manuel Torres Undervalued
Victor Altamirano (+245) vs. Felipe dos Santos (-305)
This is a line I truly don't understand. Victor Altamirano is 3-2 in the UFC with a split-decision loss to Carlos Hernandez and a unanimous-decision defeat to Tim Elliot. We certainly expect some regression from split decisions, and a loss to Elliot doesn't say much – his extremely awkward style doesn't reveal much about how a fighter would do in other matchups.
Felipe dos Santos has yet to earn his first UFC win following a debut loss to Manel Kape. While there's no shame in that, I need to see some evidence of "UFC level" before I'd make him a -305 favorite like he is for UFC Mexico this weekend.
He also got into the UFC following two decision wins on the regional circuit, which doesn't inspire much confidence.
There's also the fact that this is a flyweight fight with the round total of Over 2.5 heavily juiced at -245. That means this one is highly likely to see the judges. We typically want the big plus-money ticket if we're expecting a decision, but especially in a situation in which we have a hometown fighter (Altamirano) taking on an outsider (dos Santos). Even if the judges themselves aren't biased, the crowd reaction can subconsciously swing close rounds.
This line seems to be dropping a bit, so I'd jump on it sooner rather than later as we're unlikely to get a better price.
