Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval at UFC Mexico on Saturday, Feb. 24 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
This weekend the UFC returns to Mexico City for a 13-fight card, featuring a flyweight rematch in the main event between two-time champion Brandon Moreno and No. 3-ranked UFC contender Brandon Royval.
Moreno, a Tijuana native, defeated Royval in the UFC Apex at UFC 255 in 2020 after the American dislocated his shoulder in a scramble.
Both enter Saturday's rematch coming off title-fight losses to current champion Alexandre Pantoja. Moreno lost the flyweight belt to the Brazilian via split decision at UFC 290. Royval subsequently lost a unanimous decision in Pantoja's first title defense of the 125-pound belt, which came at UFC 296.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Mexico: Moreno vs. Royval 2 main event and utilize those factors to bet on these flyweights, who should make their cage walks at approximately 12:25 a.m. ET on Sunday morning (9:25 p.m. PT on Saturday night) on the ESPN+ fight card.
Tale of the Tape
| Moreno | Royval | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-7-2 | 15-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:34 | 8:47 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 126 lbs. | 126 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 12/7/1993 | 8/16/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 43% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.40 | 3.05 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 45% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| TD Acc | 45% | 66% |
| TD Def | 64% | 40% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 1.5 |
Royval is the taller fighter, but Moreno has the reach advantage and the edge in technical skills across this matchup.
Moreno is the sharper boxer, a better wrestler, more durable, and has a better gas tank to sustain his efforts across 25 minutes than Royval. Additionally, Royval took this fight on relatively short notice in place of Amir Albazi, just two months removed from his title-fight loss.
Moreover, since their first bout, Moreno has made more noticeable improvements in the octagon, growing physically and rounding out his game. At the same time, Royval has the same button-mashing, high-intensity style that is more effective against less-composed opponents, and the gap in physicality between the pair has only grown.
However, that's also baked into the line – Moreno closed as roughly a -160 favorite in the first bout – equating to nearly a 15% adjustment in implied win probability for the rematch.
If he proactively grapples, Moreno can cover that hefty price tag. Royval has struggled to defend takedowns (40%) and has shown a lack of urgency to scramble and get up off his back.
Royval likely needs to catch Moreno in a scramble or outpace him on the feet to pull the upset.
For all of Moreno's technical improvements, he isn't reliable enough to take the path of least resistance and attack his opponents where they are weakest. He could easily get lulled into a moderate-tempo kickboxing match in which Royval lands more volume and conserves his cardio, and Moreno goes frustratingly long stretches without mixing in his grappling.
To that point, Moreno has an extremely wonky 3-4-2 record in decisions in his UFC career, including the trifecta of a split-decision win, split-decision loss and split draw. While he has the ability to separate from his opponents, Moreno prefers to display his complete MMA skill set rather than deploy the best tools for a particular matchup.
Still, if Moreno wants the takedowns, they should be there – and if Moreno shoots them consistently (he averages 1.9 attempts per 15 minutes with 46% accuracy) and consolidates position, he should see his hand raised after the fight.
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Moreno vs. Royval Pick
I projected Brandon Moreno as a 75.7% favorite (-311 implied odds) in this matchup, and I would bet his moneyline straight to -275 or use it as a parlay piece to -310.
I expect this fight to reach a decision 48% of the time (+110 implied odds), and I don't see value concerning the total or the distance prop.
However, depending on the book (+180 at BetRivers), I show slight value on Moreno winning by decision (projected +164).
Given the short notice booking for Royval, I'd also consider a live entry on Moreno at a better price after Rounds 1, 2, or 3 – he should have a bit more in his gas tank in the championship rounds.
The Picks: Brandon Moreno as a Parlay Piece (to -275 at bet365) | Live bet Moreno after Rounds 1, 2 or 3
