Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega at UFC Mexico on Saturday, Feb. 24 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
With a suddenly wide-open featherweight division, Rodriguez and Ortega square off in a co-main event with the potential for a shot at the 145-pound title for the winner.
Both men were (soundly) beaten by former champion Alexander Volkanovski, but they have yet to face new champion Ilia Topuria, who's in need of fresh challenges for his newly won title.
This is a rematch from a 2022 bout that ended inconclusively thanks to an Ortega shoulder injury late in the first round. Both men had their moments of success, making this fight a necessary conclusion.
Despite this weekend's rematch being a co-main event, it's a five-round contest – in the elevation of Mexico City – which could also be an important factor.
Here's my Rodriguez vs. Ortega prediction and pick for UFC Mexico on Saturday night.
Tale of the Tape
| Rodriguez | Ortega | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-4 | 15-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:16 | 12:57 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 146 lbs. | 146 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 10/6/1992 | 2/21/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.63 | 4/19 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 38% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.1 | 6.7 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 49% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.73 | 0.95 |
| TD Acc | 28% | 23% |
| TD Def | 59% | 56% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 1.2 |
We were treated to some glimpses at the fun clash of styles this matchup presents in the first attempt at the fight.
Ortega is a pressure fighter, marching forward toward his opponents while closing the distance for takedown attempts. He's not just a one-dimensional grappler, though, and he throws plenty of heavy shots of his own while stalking his prey.
The -2.8 striking differential for Ortega is a bit misleading – most of the strikes he's absorbed were from Max Holloway and Volkanovski – but he's outstruck just two opponents in 11 UFC fights. While the shots he does land are heavy, the longer this one stays on the feet the worse it is for "T-City."
Where Ortega shines is on the ground, where he's submitted three opponents in the UFC. Perhaps the biggest moment of his career was a submission he didn't finish – a mounted guillotine against Volkanovski that nearly made Ortega the featherweight champion.
Ortega has developed as a wrestler in the second half of his UFC career, with eight takedowns over his last four fights (including one against Rodriguez) compared to just one in the previous seven. That throws off his overall numbers, but his pressure style helps him set up shots and clinch opportunities that he converts at a high rate.
He's also an aggressive hunter of submissions, which is a blessing and a curse.
He'll sacrifice position for low-probability submission attempts – like when he gave up top position against Volkanovski for a D'Arce choke following the near-guillotine.
Rodriguez is no slouch with submissions either, and he finished Josh Emmett with a triangle to claim the interim featherweight championship and a (failed) shot at Volkanovski's title. However, he's not out hunting grappling exchanges of his own, generally using the threat of submissions to deter opponents from controlling fights on the ground.
He's landed just one takedown in the last eight years, instead doing his best work on the feet. Rodriguez's background is in taekwondo, in which he holds a black belt and began training at age 5.
His striking style exemplifies that, and he typically fights backward or at range with quick strikes, punctuated with flashy kicks. He's not the heaviest of hitters, and he typically piles up damage over time with his high striking output.
Rodriguez should have a solid edge in volume over Ortega here, which would certainly play well to the judges should they be needed.
I do have concerns with his takedown defense, however. While Oretga was officially 1-for-5 on takedowns against him, Rodriguez never fully escaped Ortega's initial entry, and he was brought down from there. He's generally willing to accept takedowns and look for submissions, with the armbar attempt on Ortega arguably causing the fight-ending injury.
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Rodriguez vs. Ortega Pick
The 18-month break and shoulder surgery for Ortega make this a hard fight to break down. At his peak, Ortega's style on the feet is kryptonite for Rodriguez. Taekwondo strikers need time and space to ply their trade – while Ortega's constant pressure provides neither.
With that said, Rodriguez was still in control of the striking during the first meeting. While he didn't land anything of too much concern on Ortega, he was up 48-26 on total strikes. I expect the standup to be similar this time around, or potentially even worse for Ortega if the injury comes in to play. However, a shoulder injury shouldn't impact Ortega's chin, so a Rodriguez KO is fairly unlikely.
Another factor that could impact the judging is how Ortega grapples. Rather than settle in to top position and do damage, he tends to hunt for submissions at every opportunity. A takedown followed by a failed submission attempt is unlikely to swing a round he was losing – especially in Mexico where the crowd will be heavily pro-Rodriguez.
There's one bet I love, though: Ortega at +100 in the "finish only" market.
Barring another injury or a cardio stoppage down the line, I don't see Ortega getting finished by Rodriguez. Additionally, having five rounds to hunt for a Hail Mary sub likely benefits Ortega, too. (As a reminder, this bet is refunded if the fight goes the distance regardless of the winner.)
If you wanted to ensure some action on the fight, Rodriguez at -135 in the "decision only" market makes sense as well, as the corollary to this play.
The Pick: Brian Ortega – Finish Only (+100 DraftKings)
