Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of UFC Mexico props with oversized odds for Saturday's pay-per-view event.
Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +27.6 units an +8.3% ROI per bet to date since 2022.
The squad will look to keep its successful 2024 run underway with UFC Mexico tonight. The event takes place at Arena CDMX in Mexico City. The 13-fight event streams on ESPN+ beginning at 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. PT) for the preliminary card and 10 p.m. ET for the main card.
This week, we've got long-shot UFC props from veteran squad members Tony Sartori, Billy Ward, Liam Heslin and Clint MacLean.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
*Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel. Use our FanDuel promo code for your UFC Mexico betting.
Tony Sartori: Claudio Puelles by Decision (+575)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:55 p.m. ET
We have a lightweight bout on Saturday's UFC prelims with Claudio Puelles taking on Fares Ziam in a scrap between two unranked contenders. I project Puelles to be one of the most live underdogs on Saturday, and I think his +172 price is just too long against a guy like Ziam (-205), considering that they both are at the same stage of their careers are probably two or three wins away from entering the ranked-contender conversation.
Puelles got here through the Latin American version of The Ultimate Fighter, where he cruised his way to the championship before Martin Bravo knocked him out. Regardless, his journey with the UFC continued, and Puelles has become known as the kneebar king – with three kneebar victories amid a five-fight winning streak.
This streak earned Puelles a chance to take on Dan Hooker, but he was eventually stopped with a body kick in the second round. With that said, Hooker is on a far higher level at the moment than Ziam in terms of striking prowess and overall talent.
Ziam is a tactical striker, but he does not carry much power and has gone to decision in five of his six UFC bouts. On the other hand, we know what Puelles' game plan will be: shoot for takedowns and target those lower limbs for submissions.
However, Ziam comes from a Brazilian jiu-jitsu base and is not incompetent on the mat. If Ziam fights off submissions, then Puelles may be forced to just rack up control time and work for a decision victory.
That is exactly how Puelles secured two unanimous-decision victories over Marcos Mariano and Jordan Leavitt. He was also a similarly priced +170 underdog against Leavitt, just like this fight against Ziam.
At nearly 6-1, I think it's worth a dart throw that Ziam struggles to keep this fight on the feet but still succumbs to Puelles' control on the mat en route to a decision loss.
The Pick: Claudio Puelles by Decision (+575 at BetRivers)
Billy Ward: Daniel Lacerda by Finish (+450) | Lacerda in Round 1 (+800)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
Daniel Lacerda is almost always winning the fight right up until he loses. Or course, a lot of fighters can say that (yours truly included in my own career), but it’s particularly true for Lacerda. He’s 0-4 in the UFC (officially) but scored three knockdowns across his last two losses.
His luck has to turn around eventually, and his rebooked matchup with Edgar Chairez (-500) is a perfect opportunity. Lacerda (+380) was picking up steam in their first matchup back in September, landing a takedown before referee Chris Tognoni waived the bout off during a Chairez choke, thinking Lacerda was asleep. Except he wasn’t, nor was he in serious danger of becoming so from what I can tell of the choke.
It doesn’t get much more unlucky than that for Lacerda, though the bout was ruled a no-contest. Now he gets a second shot at Chairez, who’s also winless between the UFC and Contender Series.
With all that said, Lacerda likely needs a finish here. Besides the likely hostile crowd and judging situation in Mexico, there’s also major cardio concerns. Just one of his 11 professional wins came after the first frame, and two of his four losses in the UFC were in Round 2, one of which he dominated the first round.
Add to that the thin air in Mexico City, and this one gets worse the longer the fight goes. I’m putting half of my usual Prop Squad wager on his inside-the-distance prop and his Round 1 prop – while keeping an eye open for live betting opportunities on Chairez.
The Picks: Daniel Lacerda inside the distance (+450 at DraftKings) | Lacerda in Round 1 (+800 at FanDuel)
Liam Heslin: Yazmin Jauregui vs. Sam Hughes Ends by Submission (+800)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of Liam Picks Fights
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:25 p.m. ET
For my MMA Prop Squad pick this week, I'm going to the main-card bout between women's strawweights Yazmin Jauregui (-620) and Sam Hughes (+460).
We're hoping to hit an 8-1 long shot, but there are reasons to like this bet. There are also reasons it shouldn't be lined as long as it is.
Oddsmakers have set odds of +130 or shorter across the industry that this fight will end inside the distance. However, for some reason, those odds swell to +800 for a submission finish by either fighter.
I do like this bet simply from a stylistic standpoint. Jauregui is the local favorite, she's got a Brazilian jiu-jitsu advantage (purple belt vs. blue belt), and she should be the more powerful and athletic fighter, and that should create some openings.
Hughes, though, is 3-1 to the submission prop in her career – though she's not above getting in some serious submission trouble of her own. In a recent decision victory over Jaqueline Amorim, Hughes had to fight off three submission attempts in the first round before rallying in the final two rounds to get the win.
Plus, if we look at this bet from a historical perspective, fair odds for a submission finish in a three-round UFC women's strawweight bout is +390. Yet, FanDuel is offering a juicy +800 line that Jauregui vs. Hughes ends by submission.
So, whether we're looking at this bet from a pure stylistic standpoint – or as a strict numbers play – I'm willing to take the shot that one of these fighters gets the tap or a nap.
The Pick: Yazmin Jauregui vs. Sam Hughes Ends by Submission (+800 at FanDuel)
Clint MacLean: Bryan Ortega by Round 3 KO (+3300), Round 4 KO (+4400), Round 5 KO (+6000)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:25 p.m. ET
I do not understand this betting line. Brian Ortega was a -200 favorite over Yair Rodriguez in the first fight and landed a takedown in Round 1, but after suffering an injury, the fight was rebooked with Ortega now lined as an underdog.
So we already know that Ortega (+126) is a stud grappler and had no issues getting Rodriguez (-148) to the mat. That by itself has me interested.
What we have seen from the career of Rodriguez is that he is an excellent hammer and a very very bad nail. When Yair gets taken down, he tends to break and gas. Frankie Edgar gave him the big-bro treatment in 2017, and very recently, Alexander Volkanovski did the same.
Rodriguez has been finished three times in his professional career, and all three of those were by KO/TKO. Obviously, Ortega is a submission specialist. However, we have seen him land big power with authority both on the ground and on the feet.
Based on how the first round of their first fight was going, I believe Ortega knows the blueprint to breaking Rodriguez and will follow it. But I think it will take him some time to pull it off.
You can just play the round props without the method, but I am looking for the big bag this week. Split your bet into smaller pieces and hope we get a Round 5 finish!
The Picks: Brian Ortega by Round 3 KO (+3300) | Ortega by Round 4 KO (+4400) | Ortega by Round 5 KO (+6000)
