The UFC is back with another 12-fight card on Saturday. That gives us plenty of opportunity to get some action in – even if you don't live in a legal betting state. PrizePicks has you covered there, or if you just want to bet on player performances.
Below is my favorite parlay of the night, including a pure math play that maybe PrizePicks just got wrong for UFC on ESPN 39 in Las Vegas. Additionally, I have some other options to build longer-odds parlays, if you want to live on the wild side.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
UFC Fight Night PrizePicks Parlay
Jamie Mullarkey Fight Time – Under 10 Minutes
Rarely does PrizePicks put up a line that just feels wrong, but this one certainly does. Mullarkey is taking on veteran Michael Johnson to open the main card on Saturday. The fight is -240 to end inside the distance.
According to the Action Network odds calculator tool, that's more than 70% implied probability. If fights were equally likely to end at any point, that would be a roughly 47% chance for this one to go under – but they aren't.
As you (should) know, the chances of fights finishing generally decrease the later they go. Fighters tire and have less power for knockouts, and less energy to get takedowns. Takedowns of course, being a prerequisite (mostly) for submissions.
Only 27% of finishes that occur in the first three rounds (excluding five-round fights) come in the final frame. That means a 58% chance this one ends in under 10 minutes, assuming betting markets are roughly efficient.
Beyond the pure math, Mullarkey has seen his last three fights end inside of ten minutes, while two of the last three have for Johnson. Both fighters are here for a good time, not a long time, making the under a great pick.
Ronnie Lawrence Takedowns – Over 3.5
Lawrence has two UFC fights and has racked up an astonishing 14 takedowns in that pair of contests. That shows us that he isn't great about maintaining top control. That's exactly what we're looking for when taking takedown overs.
Lawrence is fighting Saidyokub Kakhramonov, another fighter with solid grappling. At the very least, Kakhramonov will be willing to get into wrestling exchanges with Lawrence, who has a tremendous 78% takedown accuracy in his career.
This is definitely the toughest test in terms of wrestling that Lawrence has faced in the UFC, but it's one he should be up to. Takedowns are generally scored fairly liberally in the UFC. Many exchanges that wouldn't count in a wrestling match are scored in the Octagon.
Lawrence could get there on one exchange if Kakhramonov is able to regain his feet – but not break Lawrence's grip – before being returned to the mat. Additionally, this fight is favored to go to a decision. Lawrence should have the time he needs to get to the over here.
Quick Picks
- Rafael dos Anjos Over 2.5 Takedowns: RDA is no stranger to five-round fights, unlike his opponent, Rafael Fiziev. Dos Anjos averages roughly two takedowns per 15 minutes, but he has 25 minutes to work with this time. I expect Fiziev to tire late, with dos Anjos able to work his grappling in the championship rounds.
- Jared Vanderaa Over 10 Minutes Fight Time: Both Vanderaa and his opponent, Chase Sherman, have been finished frequently on the ground, but they're durable on the feet. Neither has even attempted a takedown in the UFC. Vanderaa has 0 knockdowns in his UFC career, with just two in 12 fights for Sherman. I have some slight concern that Vanderaa gets this to the ground early, but if Sherman survives the first takedown or two, it's going to a decision.
- Tresean Gore Under 44.5 Significant Strikes: Gore has been reluctant to let his hands go so far in the UFC, but he clearly has big power. He's fighting a wrestler in Cody Brundage who will look to take this to the mat. If Brundage gets him down, Gore won't be able to go over this mark. Additionally, if he decides to open up his striking, he should be able to put away Brundage with one of the first 44 he lands. There are simply more paths to the under than to the over here.
