The UFC heads to Orlando on Saturday with a surprisingly stacked non-PPV card. Welterweight contenders Stephen Thompson and Kevin Holland square off in the main event of the 14-fight card (7 p.m. ET, ESPN).
We'll be looking to PrizePicks for some player prop-style bets from that fight, as well as a few other UFC on ESPN 42 bouts to round out our parlay. Read on to find the top two selections, with some additional add-ons if you're hunting for longer odds.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland PrizePicks Parlay
Kevin Holland Under 80.5 Significant Strikes
Kevin Holland is taking on Stephen "Wonderman" Thompson following the former's brief retirement. Holland had stated a desire to fight fellow strikers after a disappointing stoppage loss at the hands of Khamzat Chimaev in his most recent fight.
He's getting exactly that in Thompson, a karate fighter who has landed less than a third of a takedown per 15 minutes in his UFC career. However, that doesn't mean we should expect a wild brawl.
Thompson is solid defensively while using his long legs to stay out of range. He's absorbed under three significant strikes per minute in his long UFC career.
Holland isn't exactly a volume striker either, averaging fewer than four significant strikes per minute in his tenure. Even if this one goes the full 25 minutes, that makes getting to this number a tough ask.
Holland hasn't landed more than 80 significant strikes in any of his last 14 bouts. In terms of three-round fights that had him on pace to clear this number, just one of his last eight has gone over the mark.
Couple that with the usual reasons to be on the under – a quick finish, Holland turning it into a grappling match – and there's a huge edge on the under of this prop.
Sergei Pavlovich Over 22.5 Significant Strikes
Sergei Pavlovich is riding a four-fight winning streak with each of his wins coming via first-round knockout. He's needed between 15 and 21 significant strikes to dispatch all of his prior opponents, and he's yet to clear this line in his UFC career.
However, those knockouts have come against far less durable competition than he faces this weekend. He's fighting fan favorite Tai Tuivasa, whose chin is arguably his best attribute – outside of his willingness to drink beer from shoes.
The only other fighter of note on Pavlovich's winning streak is Derrick Lewis, and that fight was pretty clearly an early stoppage. A less trigger-happy referee, and Pavlovich clears this line easily.
Tuivasa took 110 significant strikes in his fight against Ciryl Gane before ultimately succumbing to a body shot. Pavlovich is a pure head hunter, with zero body shots landed in his streak.
While Pavlovich is -110 to win this in the first round, Tuivasa has never been finished before the halfway point of the second. This is a bet on the Australian's chin to hold up, which is one I'll take every time.
Quick Picks
- Emily Ducote Over 70.5 Significant Strikes: Emily Ducote landed 116 significant strikes in her UFC debut against Jessica Penne. This time, she takes on Angela Hill. Hill has absorbed roughly five significant strikes per minute in her UFC career, while going to decision in her last eight fights. I've got Ducote projected around 90 in this one, with little risk of grappling or an early stoppage.
- Yazmin Jauregui Under 1.5 Takedowns: Yazmin Jauregi neither landed nor attempted a takedown in her UFC debut. Additionally, all of her pre-UFC finishes were via knockout. This one should be a pure standup battle.
