The UFC heads back to the Apex facility in Las Vegas with a bout between Cory Sandhagen and Song Yadong in the main event. It's a massive 13-fight card, giving us plenty of opportunities to pick off lines at PrizePicks.
PrizePicks allows MMA bettors to place wagers on various stat categories – similar to player props in other sports.
Below, you'll find my two favorite selections, as well as some added options to increase the odds – and the payouts.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song PrizePicks Parlay
Gregory Rodrigues Under 45.5 Significant Strikes
"Robocop" is taking on Chidi Njokuani in the co-main event on Saturday. It promises to be an exciting matchup between rising middleweights, as Rodrigues is 3-1 in the UFC (two knockouts) and Njokuani is 2-0 (two knockouts).
At first glance, this seems like a fairly low number to be taking the under on, but there are a lot of factors at play. This fight isn't expected to last long, with PrizePicks setting the fight time prop at 9.0 minutes, and my time projection – a weighted average of every round prop – at roughly 9.1.
That means Rodrigues would need to land around five strikes per minute to hit this prop. While his UFC career average is 6.0, the opponent has a lot to do with that. Every prior opponent for Rodrigues had a shorter reach than him, but Njokuani has a four-inch advantage.
In large part due to his extremely long reach, Njokuani has absorbed only 1.45 significant strikes in his UFC tenure. Even if Rodrigues triples that number, he's still likely to fall short of the 45.5 line based on the expected length of this bout.
Beyond that, all the typical reasons to take the under are at play. A quick knockout by either side, a grappling-heavy affair, or a cautious approach by either man favors betting under.
Trevin Giles Over 30.5 Significant Strikes
Giles is looking to rebound from consecutive knockout losses to Michael Morales and Dricus Du Plessis. He appears to be in a good spot to do so on Saturday, with a matchup against Louis Cosce that sees Giles as a -215 or so favorite.
Giles has cleared the 30.5 significant strikes prop in five of his six UFC wins, with the lone exception being against a significantly bigger Roman Dolidze at middleweight.
On the Cosce side, his lone UFC fight was an absolute brawl. He lost in the third round, but not after absorbing 125 significant strikes and landing 89 of his own.
That fight style should lend itself well to betting overs here. Giles' three-inch reach advantage also helps, as he should be able to pick up a few easy strikes from the outside.
A quick knockout loss for Giles is a slight concern here given his recent record, but he should be able to manage the distance long enough to avoid that. My projections have Giles finishing with around 50 significant strikes on average.
Quick Picks
- Anthony Hernandez Under 3.0 Takedowns: "Fluffy's" 5.39 takedowns per 15 minutes average is a bit misleading. In his five UFC fights, he has three bouts with zero takedowns landed, and the other two combined for 14. I'm anticipating Hernandez to lean toward keeping this one standing, with his opponent Marc-Andre Barriault a solid grappler. Even if Hernandez does attempt to make this a grappling match, somebody could get finished before he lands a fourth takedown.
- Pat Sabatini Under 29.5 Significant Strikes: This is an awfully low number, but one Sabatini has cleared just once in four UFC fights. He's fighting Damon Jackson, and both men are willing grapplers. I expect this one to look more like a BJJ match than an MMA fight, and somebody to walk away with a submission victory.
