Ciryl Gane vs. Tai Tuivasa Odds
A future heavyweight title challenger could emerge from Saturday afternoon's main event between No. 3-ranked contender Tai Tuivasa and No. 1 contender – and former interim champion – Ciryl Gane.
The event kicks off at noon ET (9 a.m. PT), and the entire 12-fight card streams on ESPN+.
Tuivasa has vaulted up the heavyweight rankings over the past two years and enters on a five-fight winning streak, all by KO or TKO.
Gane returns following his first career loss, which came to Francis Ngannou in January. The Frenchman will headline the promotion's first-ever card in Paris.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for Saturday's matchup and utilize those factors to bet on the UFC Paris main event.
Tale of the Tape
| Gane | Tuivasa | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-1 | 15-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 16:20 | 6:31 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 245 lbs. | 264 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 81" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 4/12/1990 | 5/16/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.83 | 4.54 |
| SS Accuracy | 58% | 52% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.27 | 3.56 |
| SS Defense | 62% | 48% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.69 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 22% | 0% |
| TD Def | 55% | 50% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.0 |
Gane is the more well-rounded fighter, the superior athlete, and has advantages in height (2 inches) and reach (six inches) over the Australian Tuivasa.
Gane will look to use his reach advantage to stay to the outside and pick apart his opponent. He offers a crisp jab and some powerful teep kicks to keep distance, and he should have a significant speed advantage in any extended striking exchanges.
Gane will look to limit his time in the pocket, utilizing his footwork and movement to stay on the outside of the octagon and change angles whenever Tai pushes forward. He had no issue executing a similar game plan against powerful strikers like Derrick Lewis and Jairzhinho Rozenstruik, and he should be able to run circles around the more plodding heavyweights.
Tuivasa needs to kick from the outset and limit Gane's movement by the middle stages of the fight; otherwise, the Frenchman should take over down the stretch with superior cardio.
However, even in the early stages, it's difficult to envision Tuivasa winning minutes. Perhaps he lands the most impactful strike of a relatively low-paced round or manages to control Gane up against the cage for an extended stretch.
Still, it's hard to imagine Tuivasa securing a decision throughout five rounds against the best minute-winner in the heavyweight division.
Gane should control the fight's tempo, and his style should eventually wear on Tuivasa.
Once Tuivasa starts to slow, Gane may have an easier path to victory on the mat. Gane should be the superior wrestler – and jiu-jitsu practitioner – and seemingly possesses all of the grappling upside in this fight.
While I expect to see a relatively measured pace early on, Tuivasa should start to wilt the longer that this fight goes, and Gane should have the ability to coast to a decision or amplify the pressure and secure a late stoppage.
And Tuivasa's win condition is seemingly tied to a knockout.
As a result, the fight ends inside the distance prop (projected -272, listed -250 at DraftKings) could be worth a look. In addition to Tuivasa by KO/TKO (projected +660, listed +650 at DraftKings) or Gane inside the distance (projected -145, listed -150).
Moreover, Gane wins by submission (projected +492, listed +500 at Fanduel) caught my attention. And his late props, Round 4 (+1300) or Round 5 (+1700), are appealing. However, I rarely play round props – particularly in five-round fights – below +2000.
If this fight extends past five to 10 minutes, Gane will look like a -900 favorite, and I have a way of betting that opinion while getting closer to even money.
Gane vs. Tuivasa Pick
I projected Ciryl Gane to win this matchup 84.5% (-547 implied) of the time, and I show slight value on his moneyline depending upon the book.
While I also lean to the Under 4.5 rounds or fight to end inside the distance, I don't envision an early finish aside from a Tuivasa knockout or a Gane takedown and submission. And Gane rarely shoots early in his fights.
Gane is an extremely measured fighter who takes time to break down his opponents physically while avoiding danger. Gane will almost certainly try to tire out Tuivasa early and drag him to deep waters.
As a result, an SGP of Gane's moneyline and the Over 1.5 Rounds (-125), or Gane and the Over 2.5 Rounds (+125), are my favorite ways to bet this fight.
Rather than laying the juice on a finish, I would purchase Gane's decision equity and middle to late-round finish equity, where most of his win condition lies.
Tuivasa should start to slow between the seven to the 10-minute mark. I'm not interested in sweating his cardio toward the end of Round 2 and the beginning of Round 3, so I ate the juice and played the Gane SGP with the Over 1.5 total.
The Pick:Same Game Parlay: Gane & Over 1.5 Rounds (-125 at DraftKings)
