Manon Fiorot vs. Rose Namajunas Odds
The UFC Paris co-main event on Saturday features an intriguing women's flyweight fight between Manon Fiorot and Rose Namajunas.
Namajunas, a former UFC strawweight champion, will be moving up from 115 pounds to 125 pounds for the first time in her career after losing her title to Carla Esparza last year.
Fiorot, on the other hand, is coming off the strength of a five-fight winning streak inside the UFC octagon that's seen her defeat two former title challengers in her most recent outings.
Fighting in front of her home country, the pressure will be on France's Fiorot to add a former champion to her resume this weekend in the UFC Paris co-headliner.
Tale of the Tape
| Fiorot | Namajunas | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-1 | 12-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:26 | 13:36 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'5" |
| Weight | 125 pounds | 125 pounds |
| Reach | 65 inches | 65 inches |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/17/1990 | 6/29/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Minute | 6.58 | 3.66 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 40% |
| SS Absorbed Per Minute | 3.14 | 3.50 |
| SS Defense | 71% | 60% |
| Take Down Average | 1.69 | 1.61 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 57% |
| TD Def | 83% | 60% |
| Submission Average | 0.0 | 0.6 |
Despite this being somewhat of a strange pairing at first glance, I suspect that their striking swagger will bring about the best in Fiorot and Namajunas.
Fiorot, who comes from a karate background, demonstrates the in-and-out nature that you would associate with that style.
Whether Fiorot's hitting ones and twos down the center or parlaying missed Thai kicks into side kicks, the 33-year-old talent is not shy about putting up numbers in the output department.
Bringing the heat 🔥@ManonFiorot_MMA proves to be too much! #UFCVegas28pic.twitter.com/P9KOzEVeYZ
— UFC (@ufc) June 5, 2021
Fiorot also has some decent muay Thai experience, demonstrating solid composure whenever working in and out of clinching scenarios.
When pressed, the French fighter isn't afraid to change her level to defuse pressure with level-changing takedowns – though I'm not sure how much she'll want to grapple with Namajunas.
Aside from outranking Fiorot as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt, Namajunas is an incredibly dangerous and opportunistic threat in the submission realm.
Should Fiorot continue to tempt fate for the sake of scoring small points, then she could find herself in some precarious positions with the former champ.
As far as the striking goes, Namajunas has shown that she can both hang and beat the best in the world.
A longtime student of Trevor Wittman, Namajunas exercises excellent fundamentals in the form of balanced footwork and an educated lead hand.
Peak Rose Namajunas is absurdly accurate pic.twitter.com/7dmT4YPXL0
— Bloody Elbow (@BloodyElbow) August 30, 2023
From sticking and moving to hooking off of her jab, Namajunas is a fluid fighter who can hit her target with pinpoint accuracy.
When feeling in stride, the Lithuanian will unload effortless head kicks that Fiorot will need to be aware of.
That said, I'll still be curious to see how Namajunas looks against a more dedicated southpaw considering her lack of sample sizes against that stance.
Fiorot vs. Namajunas Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the French fighter, listing Fiorot -205 and Namajunas +170 as of this writing.
Despite coming into this fight leaning toward Fiorot to win by decision (which I still believe is the best way to play her, for what it's worth), I believe that there is too much value to pass up on the other side of this equation with Namajunas.
Fiorot arguably deserves the distinction as the favorite for her size and more reliable volume.
However, I can't comfortably recommend a play on that side given both Fiorot's pricetag and propensity to needlessly put herself in precarious positions (i.e. her habit of shooting takedowns and not making any hay off it).
Add in the fact that Fiorot has dipped into right high kicks that nearly ended her night in her last four consecutive fights, and I can't help but take a flier on an ultra-opportunistic Namajunas to score something big.
We either get a finish from Namajunas by Round 2 or a tight decision that has everyone sweating out the scorecards.
Either way, I'd rather be holding a 'dog ticket in my hand.
