Nassourdine Imavov vs. Brendan Allen Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Nassourdine Imavov vs. Brendan Allen odds for Saturday, September 28 – my expert UFC Paris pick and prediction.
This afternoon's UFC co-headliner in France features an important fight for the middleweight standings between top-10 talents Nassourdine Imavov and Brendan Allen.
Outside of a camp change and some shakey results opposite a couple of Xtreme Couture fighters, Imavov appears to be coming into his own.
The UFC is rewarding Imavov with another showcase spot in his home country, but his American counterpart will be far from a walkover.
Currently riding an impressive seven-fight winning streak, Allen will be looking to put a stamp on his petition for a title shot with a potential win this Saturday in the co-feature on the main card (3 p.m. ET, ESPN+).
Dan Tom's Tale of the Tape
| Imavov | Allen | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-4 | 24-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:18 | 9:45 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 186 lbs. | 186 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/1/1995 | 12/28/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.58 | 3.98 |
| SS Accuracy | 55% | 53% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.33 | 3.83 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 47% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.98 | 1.74 |
| TD Acc | 36% | 47% |
| TD Def | 74% | 58% |
| Submission Avg | 1.3 | 1.4 |
Both Imavov and Allen are incredibly well-rounded middleweights who like to apply the art of eight limbs (muay Thai) whenever operating on their feet.
Possessing some slick muay Thai swagger, Imavov does well when it comes to working off lead-handed feints and displays a solid sense for kicking traffic at range. When feeling in stride, he will unleash everything from right crosses to flying knees, but he arguably does his best work off the counter.
Although Allen has struggled with counters in the past, the Kill Cliff FC product has made some marked improvements, both defensively and offensively, since working with Henri Hooft.
Hooft may come off like Baron von Trapp from "The Sound of Music," but the man clearly knows how to instill solid striking fundamentals into his fighters – something that Allen is certainly reaping the rewards of. From improved head movement to Allen's overall striking awareness in the pocket, the native of Louisiana has become a much more comfortable and competent operator in recent years.
However, it's on the floor where Allen has traditionally made his money.
Aside from owning the second-most submissions in middleweight history, Allen is also the best rear-naked choke artist in the division not named Gerald Meerschaert.
Although Allen will have an undeniable edge on the floor, Imavov appears to be incredibly well-trained when it comes to both submission defense and getups against the cage.
Imavov is also a skilled clinch striker who can compete with Allen in closed quarters, making for more meaningful battles in all phases.
Imavov vs. Allen Pick & Prediction
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the French fighter, listing Imavov -218 and Allen +180 as of this writing.
I'm not necessarily surprised to see Imavov favored in this fight, but the betting spread above feels a bit wide for my liking.
Allen being a contender with some serious momentum aside, Imavov is a fighter I have a hard time trusting at chalky odds. Not only has he traditionally shown signs of flagging in both three- and five-round affairs (especially when forced to grapple), but the "Russian Sniper" has also demonstrated suspect decision-making in multiple instances, especially when it comes to his hardwiring to seek comfort in the clinch.
Although Allen is more than capable of grounding opponents in the open with tools like double-leg takedowns, the American's net positives in the grappling department have traditionally come off of the follies from his foes in closed quarters.
So, whether Allen comes out with the right game plan or not, I suspect that Imavov will be giving away win conditions to his opponent regardless of the result of this fight.
For that reason, I'll be officially picking Allen to win by decision (with a decent chance of pulling off something late for those of you who are looking for third rounds to sprinkle on).
I also think that this is a classic 'dog-or-pass spot from a moneyline perspective, but I don't blame you for not feeling bullish on either side given everything at play.
If that's the case, then I suggest shopping the totals market for what I believe to be the safest bet for this fight.
Outside of an ultra-dedicated Allen wearing down Imavov late, I don't think that either man will find a finish in what is ultimately a 15-minute contest with incredibly high stakes attached.
I'll probably end up adding Allen if his number keeps going up, but I like the Over 2.5 rounds in this spot, which is -135 at the time of this writing.
The Pick: Imavov vs. Allen – Over 2.5 rounds (-135 at DraftKings)
