Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis Odds
| 5:30 p.m. ET | |
Here's everything you need to know about Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis odds for Saturday, September 28 – my expert UFC Paris pick and prediction.
On Saturday afternoon, the UFC will return to Accor Arena in Paris, France, for an exciting main event in the lightweight division between No. 11 ranked Renato Moicano and No. 12 contender Benoit Saint Denis.
The fight card kicks off at noon ET (9 a.m. PT) and streams entirely on ESPN+.
The Frenchman Saint Denis is 5-2 in the UFC with four performance bonuses. He enters after a knockout loss to Dustin Poirier in March, when he closed as a -225 favorite and dominated the first seven minutes before tiring (while dealing with a staph infection).
The Brazilian-born Moicano enters on a three-fight winning streak with an 11-5 promotional record (6-2 at lightweight) and seven wins by finish.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Paris main event and utilize those factors to bet on Moicano and Saint Denis, who should make their main event cage walks at approximately 5:25 p.m. ET on Saturday on ESPN+.
Sean Zerillo's Tale of the Tape
| Moicano | Saint Denis | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-5-1 | 13-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:25 | 7:12 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 156 lbs. | 156 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 5/21/1989 | 12/18/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.38 | 5.70 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.68 | 4.98 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 42% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.89 | 4.76 |
| TD Acc | 45% | 37% |
| TD Def | 72% | 69% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 1.5 |
Stylistically, this fight compares most similarly to Saint Denis's matchup against Thiago Moises from September 2022.
Like Moises, Moicano is a better submission grappler and technical striker than Saint Denis. Still, the difference in power, physicality and aggression should prove decisive for the Frenchman against a less durable opponent lacking knockout power.
Moicano has one standing knockdown (against Cub Swanson) at the UFC level. While he's the better boxer than Saint Denis, he doesn't have the pop to deter his opponent from closing the distance or to finish the fight with one combination as Dustin Poirier did in his come-from-behind win.
Instead, Moicano would win this matchup with toughness and superior cardio down the stretch. He showed both in spades in a one-sided, five-round loss to Rafael dos Anjos and come-from-behind wins over Jalin Turner and Alexander Hernandez.
Moicano is a high-level jiu-jitsu practitioner with wicked back takes and a lethal rear-naked choke. Still, he's far less threatening when forced to defend grappling (permitted five of 15 takedowns and controlled for 13 minutes by dos Anjos) rather than trying to pass or finish opponents offensively.
Saint Denis is exceptionally hittable on the feet (42% striking defense). Still, he excels at either staying outside, where he can land his powerful left kick from a distance, or at getting all the way in on his opponents, where he puts them in his grasp and initiates wrestling exchanges.
"God of War" will attempt to overwhelm Moicano with pace and pressure (9.6 takedown attempts per 5 minutes at a distance; 37% accuracy) – fighting like a more violent Merab Dvalishvili – after setting up entries behind his powerful left kick to the head and body, which he uses both to land damage and make opponents lose balance.
The question that will determine his championship ceiling is whether Saint Denis can maintain that pace for 25 minutes; as he found out against Poirier, fighters near the top of the rankings are more challenging to finish.
While you can partially credit his loss to Poirier to the staph infection and a temporary cardio deficiency, it seems doubtful that Saint Denis can maintain his hectic style across 25 minutes; Dvalishvili is the only fighter who has ever been able to maintain that pace through the championship rounds.
If Saint Denis tires and has to strike at range in the championship rounds, Moicano should get the better of those exchanges (+1.1 vs. -1.2 significant strike differential at a distance). I'd look to live bet Moicano about midway through Round 2 or after Round 3 – if he's getting outwrestled but not on the verge of getting finished.
Still, he should be playing defense for the first two rounds or more, and I expect Saint Denis to finish Moicano at a consistent clip (90% of his win condition) in front of a raucous home crowd.
Moicano vs. Saint Denis Pick & Prediction
I projected Benoit Saint Denis as a 74.6% favorite (-294 implied odds) in this matchup and project slight value on his moneyline (-280 at FanDuel), depending upon the book.
I expect the fight to end inside the distance about 86% of the time (-624 implied), in line with the betting market (-670 Yes, +450 No), and don't show value concerning the total.
However, I would weigh most of Saint Denis' finishing upside toward the first half of the fight and give Moicano more decision and late finish equity.
As a result, I'd consider betting Saint Denis to win in Rounds 1-2 (-110) or placing a same-game parlay with Saint Denis and the Under 2.5 Rounds (-125)
However, I'd rather bet Saint Denis to win inside the distance (projected -205, listed -185) than take his SGP with the Under 3.5 Rounds (listed -165) at a slight discount.
And if you're looking for plus money, I like Saint Denis to win by KO/TKO (projected -107, listed +110) via ground and pound.
The Picks: Benoit Saint Denis wins Inside the Distance (-175 at bet365) | Renato Moicano Live after Round 3
