Check out the latest UFC Paris odds for Saturday, September 28, with our UFC best bets.
UFC Paris takes place this afternoon and kicks off at noon ET (9 a.m. PT). The entire lineup streams on ESPN+ and takes place at Accor Arena in Paris, France.
The UFC Paris odd board is stacked with 14 matchups and a buffet of betting options for fans de combat. Featured bouts include lightweights Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis in the main event and middleweights Nassourdine Imavov vs. Brendan Allen in the co-main event.
So where should you look to place your UFC Paris bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks, including the headliner and co-headliner, that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using UFC odds from DraftKings.
UFC odds for matchups as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Paris with our DraftKings promo code!
UFC Paris Odds
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
UFC Paris Best Bets
Billy Ward: Jacqueline Cavalcanti vs. Nora Cornolle
Predictive Analyst and Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:20 p.m. ET
Nora Cornolle’s moneyline isn’t just my favorite bet on the card, it’s one of my favorite bets in a while. The former No. 2 ranked women’s muay Thai fighter is 2-0 in the UFC with both wins coming as an underdog.
That’s despite two somewhat difficult stylistic matchups against grapplers, who forced the Frenchwoman to defend plenty of takedowns.
Cornolle (+170) now gets a much better matchup against Jacqueline Cavalcanti (-205), a fellow former kickboxer. Cavalcanti doesn’t have nearly the kickboxing credentials of Cornolle, though. And Cornolle is also the much more powerful and explosive athlete.
Additionally, Cavalcanti just fought in late August, and she's taking this fight on fairly short notice. She also has to travel to a foreign country to do so, unlike the hometown Cornolle.
The only reason we’re getting a “+” in front of Cornolle’s odds is the fact that this one is a rematch. Cornolle dropped her pro debut to Cavalcanti back in 2021, which was Cornolle’s first MMA fight at any level.
That means the typical rematch trends – which favor the younger fighter as well as the original winner – are working against Cornolle here. However, given the circumstances around her transitioning to a new sport, I’m not sure how much it matters
The Pick: Nora Cornolle (+176 at FanDuel)
Dann Stupp: Fares Ziam vs. Matt Frevola
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 2:55 p.m. ET
I had some early MMA betting success with a simple philosophy: Bet on small underdogs unless you could give me a truly convincing reason not to.
Small to moderate underdogs are historically undervalued in the UFC betting world, and by filtering the results with a little further fine-tuning, I was able to grind out a steady ROI to kick off my foray into betting on fights.
I'm going back to my roots for the UFC Paris main-card opener between lightweights Fares Ziam (-118) and Matt Frevola (-102).
Granted, the age difference (34 to 27) is a big point in Ziam's favor, but a lot of the stylistic differences and intangibles favor Frevola, who's flopped from a moderate favorite at market open to a small underdog at the time of this writing. In this case, I think the oddsmakers had it right to begin with.
Ziam may be a more technical striker, but he doesn't have the type of power that's given Frevola issues in his past losses. "Steamrolla" Frevola also isn't the type of fight who's going to let a lazy decision loss play out. His open standup style – especially the persistent threat of his KO power – could actually throw Ziam off his more technical game. Frevola should also have a wrestling and grappling edge that could help him swing close rounds in his favor.
I expect a very entertaining fight – for as long as it lasts. And I think New York's Frevola is primed to score an upset in enemy territory. I'd play "Steamrolla" with any plus number attached to his name.
The Pick: Matt Frevola (+115 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Sean Zerillo: Brendan Allen vs. Nassourdine Imavov
Senior Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:55 p.m. ET
Both fighters in the UFC Paris co-main event are dialing back from five-round UFC Fight Night main event wins to a three-round affair on Saturday.
A five-round fight would help Brendan Allen (+170) – the better offensive grappler with excellent cardio – but a three-round fight favors Nassourdine Imavov (-205), a more technical striker and durable athlete who might be the superior wrestler when both men are fresh.
Imavov hasn't faced many proactive grapplers, and if Allen pushes a heavy wrestling pace (attempts 2.2 per five minutes at a distance, 50% accuracy) from the outset, it could tire out his opponent later in the fight. Even if those early shots are unsuccessful, Imavov has slowed late in three-round fights when forced to grapple defensively.
Imavov has the better boxing – particularly defensively (59% vs. 47% striking defense) – and he should win the extended striking exchanges (+0.3 to -0.5 strike differential per minute). He is also likelier to cause a wobble or land a knockout blow of the pair. Allen's finishing upside is mainly on the mat (attempts 1.5 submissions per five minutes of control; completed seven of 13 attempts) or connected to Imavov gassing out late.
Both men have ways to finish, but I still expect this fight to reach a decision more than 60% of the time (62% or -162 implied) and project value on both the Over 2.5 Rounds and Goes to Decision prop. I would bet the latter up to -150.
Additionally, I show value on Imavov to win by decision (projected +123, listed +220) either as a straight bet or to juice up a round-robin ticket.
The Pick: Allen vs. Imavov – Fight Goes to Decision (-110 at Hard Rock Sportsbook)
Tony Sartori: Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:25 p.m. ET
With the Renato Moicano (+215) vs. Benoit Saint Denis (-265) main event, the steam is on BSD, who opened as a sizable favorite at -250 and has since been bet up to his current -300 price tag.
I agree with the steam, though I have no interest in laying that much juice. Instead, I want to look at BSD's method-of-victory market:
- KO/TKO (+120)
- Submission (+400)
- Decision (+600)
BSD to win by KO/TKO is the most likely outcome according to oddsmakers, and I agree. Nicknamed "God of War" for a reason, Saint Denis can push the tempo and obliterate almost anyone in the striking department.
Three of his past four wins within the UFC have come by knockout, and I think the only reason that this outcome is even returning plus-money is that he has garnered more submission victories in his professional career. However, most of those came prior to the UFC and the elevation of his striking.
I don't want to take away from his grappling, which is very strong in its own right. However, BSD possesses the clear striking advantage against Moicano, while the underdog will most likely have to rely on his BJJ black belt to pull off the upset.
With that said, Saint Denis is also a brown belt in BJJ and has never tapped across 16 professional MMA bouts. If we are taking down the probability of Moicano submitting BSD, then it is most likely only a matter of time before Moicano is put down.
Moicano has been knocked out in three of his past four losses, and he should have been finished by KO/TKO against Jalin Turner before the latter decided to celebrate early instead of finishing the fight. Saint Denis won't make that same mistake.
Finally, we are catching a particularly generous price on BSD's KO/TKO prop at +112 via BetRivers, a line that is up to 30 cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing.
The Pick: Benoit Saint Denis by KO/TKO (+112 at BetRivers)
