Check out our UFC picks and predictions for UFC Paris with our favorite long-shot UFC props for Saturday, September 28.
UFC Paris takes place this afternoon at Accor Arena in France. The entire event streams on ESPN+ beginning at noon ET (9 a.m. PT).
With 14 fights, UFC Paris prop opportunities are plentiful today, and the MMA Prop Squad has found a handful of picks they like for the French card.
Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of UFC predictions from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who look for long-shot picks and predictions to juice up your betting card for each event.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
UFC Paris odds for matchups as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Paris with our DraftKings promo code!
UFC Picks & Predictions
Clint MacLean: Fading Ailin Perez
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 1:10 p.m. ET
I am not a believer in Ailin Perez. I know she's on a three-fight winning streak in the UFC, but against who?
She lost her UFC debut against Stephanie Egger and was finished. Since then, she has fought Ashlee Evans-Smith (who's retiring), Lucie Pudilova (cut from UFC) and Joselyn Edwards, who is 3-3 in her last six fights. The strength of Perez's schedule isn't anything to write home about, and in every single one of these fights, she does little to no damage and struggles to hang on deep in the fight.
Perez (-205) now meets Darya Zheleznyakova (+170), who is going to have a significant height and reach advantage with a huge striking edge here.
I don't believe Perez will be able to bully Zheleznyakova the way she has her last few opponents. If Perez can't get the grappling going and keep it going, she will be stuck on the feet, and that is a place you do not want to be with this Zheleznyakova.
I fully expect Zheleznyakova to land hard and Perez to look for the door again.
The Pick: Darya Zheleznyakova by KO/TKO (+700 at FanDuel)
Lian Heslin: Dual Submission Play for Klein vs. Roberts
Contributor at The Action Network and host of Liam Picks Fights
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 1:55 p.m. ET
L'udovit Klein has yet to attempt a submission in the UFC, but he hasn't been afraid to mix in his wrestling and grappling with 12 takedowns and approximately 30 minutes of control time.
He is heavily favored to win this bout (-1000), but he is being given a slim chance (+550) to win via submission despite having eight wins via sub as a professional.
Klein now meets Roosevelt Roberts (+650), who was submitted in his most recent bout by Mateusz Rebecki, and he was submitted three other times in professional & amateur competition (vs. Jim Miller, Kevin Croom and Derek Slater). Croom's submission win over Roberts was reversed due to a faield drug test (marijuana), but it's still relevant to his submission vulnerabilities, especially considering he's coming in as a late replacement and could tire late in this fight.
Roberts' best chance to win this bout is to mix in his own wrestling and grappling; he averages 1.4 takedowns and 0.9 submission attempts per 15 minutes across his UFC sample size. The majority of pro losses for both athletes (two apiece) have came via submission.
The Picks: L'udovit Klein by submission (+550 at FanDuel) | Klein vs. Roberts ends by submission (+430 at FanDuel)
Dan Tom: Picking 'Steamrolla' by Submission
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 2:55 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to target UFC Paris' main-card opener between Fares Ziam (-130) and Matt Frevola (+110).
Despite the oddsmakers opening Frevola as the favorite, public money has come in and flipped the line in favor of Ziam.
However, if you're not looking to commit yourself to a side but still want to keep things interesting, then I suggest shopping the prop market for the high numbers that oddsmakers are currently offering on Frevola to win by submission.
Not only do nearly a third of Frevola's wins come by submission, but Ziam has traditionally struggled against anyone with even a semblance of a wrestling game (getting taken down by strikers such as Don Madge and arguably losing to Jamie Mullarkey).
Couple that with the fact that the majority of Ziam's losses come by way of submission, and there's no way I'm not sprinkling on the Matt Serra student in Frevola – who has been hinting at a ground attack in interviews all week – to snatch up a submission at 7-1 odds.
The Pick: Matt Frevola by submission (+700 at FanDuel)
Tony Sartori: Power to Tag a Hittable Bryan Battle
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 3:55 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC Paris main card features a welterweight bout between unranked contenders Kevin Jousset (+140) and Bryan Battle (-166).
Jousset is a solid striker who throws punches-in-bunches. Across his two UFC bouts, he's landed 8.23 significant strikes per minute at 55% accuracy. The reason I mention this is because I think Battle is exploitable on the feet despite the fact that he has never been knocked out as a professional.
Battle gets hit relatively easily (bad when you are facing a guy who is landing north of eight significant strikes per minute) and possesses poor footwork. It's also not like Battle is incapable of getting knocked out: he got finished by KO/TKO as an amateur and got knocked down by Rinat Fakhretdinov in one of the most lopsided fights I've ever seen.
Jousset is the more clinical and technical striker, which always opens the door for a knockout possibility. We are catching this 7/1 return because Jousset's two UFC wins have come by decision and submission, but half of his wins prior to those two came by KO/TKO.
He trains with City Kickboxing, a striking-heavy (obviously) gym that is more than capable of orchestrating a game plan that takes advantage of Battle's lack of technique on the feet. I think it's more than fair to say that Battle is rightfully favored, given that he brings a far greater submission threat into this fight.
However, if you are giving me 7/1 KO/TKO prop on a City Kickboxing guy with 100% takedown defense who is going against a very hittable fighter, I'm going to take a flier on that line far more often than not.
The Pick: Kevin Jousset by KO/TKO/DQ (+700 at DraftKings)
Billy Ward: Betting on Renato Moicano to Finish Strong
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:25 p.m. ET
The UFC Paris main event between Renato Moicano (+235) and Benoit Saint Denis (-290) seems like a pretty binary fight. Not between a striker and a grappler necessarily – both guys can do either – but between an early finisher and a durable, scrappy comeback artist.
The favored Saint Denis is the former. He’s never won a fight by decision – despite fighting mostly three-round contests before this one – and gassed out badly after a dominant first round in his last fight. He claims a staph infection limited his cardio, and it might have, but there are bigger issues.
Namely, the Frenchman is massive for the division with a hyper-aggressive style even the best-conditioned athletes would be hard-pressed to maintain.
That’s a stark contrast to Moicano, who’s a former featherweight with a more technical style, but lacks the explosive finishing ability of Saint Denis.
My favorite way to bet this one is live since that protects you against an early Saint Denis stoppage. From a pre-fight perspective, the split-round prop on FanDuel is a juicy +650, and it covers most of the +235 underdog's winning condition.
I’m somewhat worried Saint Denis gasses out before we even make it to the championship rounds – which is why I prefer the live angle – but this is a solid alternative if you’re unwilling or unable to make an in-play bet.
The Pick: Renato Moicano in Round 4/Round 5/Decision (+650 at FanDuel)
