Let’s look into some mispriced betting lines with early UFC Paris predictions on Saturday afternoon, September 28, and see which fighters are overvalued and which are undervalued heading into the event.
UFC Paris takes place today at Accord Arena in France, and the 14-fight lineup streams entirely on ESPN+ beginning at noon ET (9 a.m. PT).
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Paris odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Paris with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Paris Predictions & Luck Ratings
Benoit Saint Denis (-270) vs. Renato Moicano (+220)
Before looking at the lines for the UFC Paris main event, I was hoping we'd have more of a reaction from the market to Benoit Saint Denis' KO loss to Dustin Poirier at UFC 299.
"God Of War" dominated the first round in that fight before gassing out in the second and getting finished by Poirier, the longtime contender. However, Saint Denis claimed after the fact to have a staph infection, which may have impacted his cardio.
However, that didn't seem to sway the market much for his upcoming fight against Renato "Money" Moicano with the Frenchman opening between -250 and -270 on home turf.
I still have my concerns about the favorite's cardio, though. Moicano has never won a decision in his career, and he has a frenetic style that is hard to maintain. For that reason, I'll be looking to buy in on Moicano live should he survive the early flurry. But this one is about right from a pre-fight perspective.
Verdict: Fairly valued
Nassourdine Imavov (-225) vs. Brendan Allen (+185)
Top-10 UFC middleweights meet in the co-main event in Paris with No. 4-ranked contender Nassourdine Imavov taking on No. 8 Brendan Allen.
Imavov was born in Dagestan, but as a teen, he moved to France, where he trains out of the MMA Factory gym that produced Ciryl Gane and was the former home of Francis Ngannou.
Imavov holds a 6-2 UFC record, and he's coming off a controversial finish over Jared Cannonier that was arguably an early stoppage, as well as a majority decision over Roman Dolidze.
Brendan Allen is quietly riding a seven-fight winning streak with five of those coming via rear-naked choke. He's an elite grappler with a rapidly improving standup game.
He also needed a split decision to get past Chris Curtis in his last fight, but it's been a solid streak overall.
Allen's wins have been far more definitive, so it doesn't make much sense that he's a nearly 2-1 underdog here. I expect that line to come down, so grab the +200 at Caesars Sportsbook while you still can.
Verdict: Brendan Allen undervalued
Ailin Perez (-270) vs. Darya Zheleznyakova (+220)
The other women's bout on the UFC Paris card features another adopted French fighter originally born in Russia in Darya Zheleznyakova. "The Iron Lady" is 1-0 in the UFC after picking up a decision win over Montserrat Rendon in her debut in March.
Zheleznyakova is taking on Ailin Perez, who's 3-1 in the promotion against mostly lower-level competition with three decision wins and a stoppage loss.
Perez is probably a deserving favorite here, but it should be closer than this. We prefer to be holding underdog tickets in fights that hit the judges – which this one is likely too. Plus, if anybody gets some "home cooking" from the fans and judges, it will be the French transport.
It won't be a big bet for me, but I'm throwing a half unit on Zheleznyakova at +220, where her line sits at both DraftKings and Caesars.
Verdict: Darya Zheleznyakova undervalued
Jacqueline Cavalcanti (-210) vs. Nora Cornolle (+160)
Both women in this bantamweight matchup are 2-0 in the UFC. However, Nora Cornolle has a knockout (over previously undefeated Melissa Mullins) and a unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) over the solid Joselyn Edwards.
On the other hand, Jacqueline Cavalcanti's two UFC wins include a split decision over Josiane Nunes and a unanimous decision against Zarah Fairn, who's 0-4 in the UFC.
All of which would typically make Cornolle the favorite here since she has better results against a higher level of competition.
What complicates the matter is the fact that this fight is a rematch. Cornolle made her pro debut against the 1-0 at the time Cavalcanti back in 2021, with Cavalcanti winning a decision.
With that said, Cornolle had just made the transition to MMA from muay Thai at the time, and she's rounded out her game since. I'm riding with the underdog here with the best line of +165 at Caesars.
