Check out our UFC predictions and Luck Ratings for UFC Vegas 89: Namajunas vs. Ribas on Saturday, March 23.
We have another UFC Apex card this weekend with former strawweight champion "Thug" Rose Namajunas looking to pick up her first win at flyweight in her main event against Amanda Ribas.
The 13-fight event starts with a preliminary card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. PT), and the main card starts on ESPN at 10 p.m. ET.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
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While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
*Odds via DraftKings and as of Tuesday. Bet on UFC Vegas 89: Ribas vs. Namajunas this weekend with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Predictions & Luck Ratings
Rose Namajunas (-250) vs. Amanda Ribas (+205)
The biggest story of Saturday's main event is the weight class.
Both women have previously competed at strawweight (115 pounds) with Namajunas fighting there exclusively and holding the title for two separate stints. Ribas also has fought primarily at strawweight in the UFC, but she's bounced back and forth between flyweight (125 pounds) – where this bout is being contested – on a few occasions.
Ribas has been much more consistently successful at the lighter weight class, going 6-1 at 115 but just 2-2 at 125. That's, in theory, a downgrade to her.
However, with Namajunas making just her second fight in the division and being somewhat undersized for the weight class, that shouldn't be a factor here. Ribas' flyweight losses have come against much bigger, stronger fighters in Maycee Barber and Katlyn Cerminara.
The other big factor is Namajunas' recent form. Her last two appearances were a weird split-decision loss to Carla Esparza in which she landed just 37 strikes over 25 minutes, followed by a fairly clear loss to Manon Fiorot in which she also showed very limited output.
Ribas is coming off the best performance of her career, a spinning-wheel-kick knockout over Luana Pinheiro in which she scored her first-ever UFC knockdown and finish from strikes.
Given the opposite trajectories here, this line feels a bit too wide on the underdog. Money is coming in on Namajunas early in the week, so it's not urgent, but I'm fine with taking the +230s widely available on Ribas as well.
Verdict: Amanda Ribas Undervalued
Karl Williams (-180) vs. Justin Tafa (+150)
Karl Williams was originally slated to fight Junior Tafa at this event. That plan got scrapped when Junior replaced Justin about a month ago, getting hurt in the process. Now it's big brother's turn to take over – in the heavyweight co-main event this weekend.
Fortunately for everyone involved, the heavy-handed striking style of both Tafa brothers is extremely similar. At this point, you sign up to fight a Tafa to be named later, and prepare the same way regardless.
We typically don't feature many heavyweight bouts in this column. Their higher finishing rates remove much of the "luck" from their fight results. However, Williams is an exception. He's finished just three of his nine professional wins, none of them in the UFC or Contender Series. He's also somewhat undersized for heavyweight, fighting at 205 pounds for the entirety of his pre-UFC career.
Tafa has picked up knockouts in all seven of his professional victories, including all four in the UFC, while being stopped just once. That gives him an edge here relative to his moneyline – though the sharper play is probably to wait for "finish only" markets before putting your money down.
On the other hand, this line has already been dropping fast, with Tafa opening around +200. Therefore, I'll take his moneyline for half a unit now (Betfred has a market-best +160 at the time of this writing), and then look to add on with the finish-only bet once available – or if the line moves far enough, lock in a profit by arbitrage betting Williams.
Verdict: Justin Tafa Undervalued
Trey Ogden (-155) vs. Kurt Holobaugh (+130)
Trey Ogden has an extremely deceptive 1-2-1 official UFC record. First, there's his split-decision loss to Jordan Leavitt. While not necessarily a bad judgment, fans and media were nearly evenly split on the winner of that fight.
More importantly, "Samurai Ghost" had a no-contest in his most recent appearance, and it was a dominant performance in which he was up 20-18 through two rounds. However, he had a fight-ending submission locked in, and then the referee called an early end to the fight with the belief that Nikolas Motta was unconscious.
Had that fight gone to the scorecards at that moment, it would've been an easy win for Ogden. And had the ref waited even a few seconds, he would've had the submission.
Now he draws The Ultimate Fighter 31 winner Kurt Holobaugh, who was one of the returning UFC veterans brought back for the show. Holobaugh went 0-4 across two previous UFC stints with his one official UFC win coming in the TUF tournament final.
While winning the reality show used to mean a lot more, at this point, it's mostly stocked with fighters the UFC didn't even offer a Contender Series fight to – making that win highly questionable.
Ogden should be a bigger favorite here, with the best line on Tuesday the -150 offered by Betway.
Verdict: Trey Ogden Undervalued
Miles Johns (-148) vs. Cody Gibson (+124)
Another fighter with a rightful win that became a no-contest is fighting a TUF 31 cast member on Saturday. That's Miles Johns, who's officially 4-2 (1 no-contest) in the UFC but, for all intents and purposes, is 5-2.
His decision win last September was overturned for a failed drug test, but the amount of PEDs was low enough that USADA didn't detect it, and the Nevada Athletic Commission has since changed its thresholds to a point that Johns wouldn't have been flagged in that fight.
Like Holobaugh, Cody Gibson made his way back to the UFC via the recent season of TUF, where he was the bantamweight runner-up. Prior to that, he was 1-3 in the UFC.
Johns is also nearly seven years younger, which adds another layer of value to his line. You can still get -140 at ESPN BET at the time of this writing, but the price is going up fast, so don't wait too long.
