Check out our UFC Predictions and Luck Ratings for UFC Vegas 88: Tuivasa vs Tybura on Saturday, March 16.
Following the blockbuster UFC 299 fight card last weekend, we're back at the UFC Apex this week for a smaller event, which streams entirely on ESPN+ beginning at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT).
While the names might not be as big, these lower-profile cards tend to have less efficient betting markets – and thus more opportunities for mispriced fighters.
Here are a few I identified as early week values for the card, which features a Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura heavyweight main event and Bryan Battle vs. Ange Loosa welterweight co-main event.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
*Odds via DraftKings and as of Tuesday
UFC Predictions & Luck Ratings
Tai Tuivasa (-125) vs. Marcin Tybura (+105)
The UFC Vegas 88 main event features a recognizable name in Tai Tuivasa, who's looking to rebound from three straight knockout losses against top competition.
Those three losses came against fighters ranked Nos. 2-6 in the official UFC contender rankings, making this bout against No. 10 Marcin Tybura something of a step down in competition.
It's pretty clear at this point that Tuivasa isn't heavyweight championship material, but he's still a fun fighter who can hold his own against the second half of the rankings. His rise to relevancy was full of wins over fighters like Tybura, who's 11-7 in the UFC but has just four finishes in those wins.
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There's not really any luck-based analysis on the Tuivasa side, as his last nine fights have ended with somebody being finished. However, Tybura's only win over a ranked fighter in the past few years was a somewhat generous majority decision that should've been a draw against Alexander Romanov. He's also now 38 years old, with a relative lack of finishing upside that could hurt him against the dangerous Tuivasa.
This line is pretty close to being right, but the outlier -125 on DraftKings and a few other sportsbooks is a slight value, and with most other books offering a steeper price on Tuivasa, it's worth betting before DraftKings catches up to the rest of the industry
Verdict: Tai Tuivasa Slightly Undervalued
Isaac Dulgarian (-170) vs. Christian Rodriguez (+142)
The UFC seems unwilling to learn its lesson with Christian Rodriguez. "C Rod" is coming off consecutive wins over previously undefeated prospect Rual Rosas Jr. and Cameron Saaiman, effectively derailing (at least temporarily) the hype train around both fighters.
Now he draws another undefeated opponent, Isaac "The Midwest Choppa" Dulgarian. Dulgarian is 6-0 overall and 1-0 in the UFC with a win over Francis Marshall. That's far less impressive than wins over Rosas and especially Saaiman.
Rodriguez's only career loss was on extremely short notice in his debut against Jonathan Pearce, and even that was a fairly close decision.
Of course, the elephant in the room is Rodriguez's performance on the scales. He missed weight for both the Saaiman and Rosas wins at bantamweight, and he's stepping up a weight class to fight Dulgarian.
Rodriguez would almost certainly be favored here if not for the jump in weight class. While it's a mild concern, it's also entirely possible that the 26-year-old Rodriguez will be better without such a severe weight cut, especially as he fills out and adds strength while approaching his athletic prime.
Given my assumption that he performs just as well if not better at his new weight class, getting plus-money on Rodriguez is a gift. No rush here, though, as the line seems to be trending in the other direction. We might be able to get an even better price later in the week.
Verdict: Christian Rodriguez Undervalued
Mike Davis (-305) vs. Natan Levy (+245)
I understand Mike Davis being favored here. He's 3-1 in the UFC with his only loss coming in his debut against Gilbert Burns, back when "Durinho" was still fighting at lightweight.
What I don't understand is why the line is this wide.
Natan Levy is a solid 2-1, having lost a wrestling-heavy 28-29(x3) decision to Rafa Garcia in his debut. Levy doesn't strike me as a future star, but he's a solid UFC-level fighter who should be competitive against all but the division's best.
The bigger issue for me, though, is Davis' inactivity. He's fought just three times since that loss to Gilbert Burns nearly five years ago, and not at all in nearly 18 months. My assumption is he's been sidelined with injuries, but even if he's fully healthy, that lack of cage time is a big hurdle to overcome.
This is another fight that seems to be heading in the opposite direction of my read, but I'll be looking to time the top of Levy's line at some point this week.
Verdict: Natan Levy Undervalued
Jafel Filho (-180) vs. Ode' Osborne (+150)
Jafel "Pastor" Filho nearly shocked the world in his UFC debut. He fought undefeated Muhammad Mokaev in a deep kneebar in the closing minutes of a fight that Pastor took on short notice as a +650 underdog. But Mokaev gritted through the submission and then finished the drained Filho.
He lived up to that promise in his next fight, submitting Daniel Barez in the first round while needing just one takedown. Filho did get dropped in that fight, but it's hard to question his grappling ability.
That should be enough to get through Ode' Osborne, who's 1-2 in his last three appearances. The lone win was a debatable split decision over Charles Johnson, and he's been stopped in both losses.
Osborne should hang around near the bottom of the flyweight division and win the occasional fights, but Pastor looks to have serious promise. I expect to look back at this line in a year or so and be shocked by how close it was.
It's already moving heavily, with just a few -180 lines available at DraftKings and Caesars. Grab one before those are gone since Filho will close on the other side of -200.
