Check out our UFC predictions and picks for UFC Vegas 89 on Saturday, featuring some juicy prop bets from the MMA Prop Squad.
Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of long-shot prop predictions from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +14.5 units a +4.2% ROI per bet to date.
UFC Vegas 89 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. The preliminary card streams on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. PT), and the main card is available on ESPN and ESPN+ beginning at 10 p.m. ET.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
*Matchup odds as of Saturday and via FanDuel. Bet on UFC Vegas 89 with our FanDuel promo code.
UFC Predictions & Prop Picks
Dann Stupp: Cody Gibson in Round 2 (+1200), Round 3 (+1900)
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
In addition to a straight moneyline play on Cody Gibson (+116), I'm seeing some real potential for him to finish Miles Johns (-136), especially in the second half of the fight.
That's why I'm targeting Gibson to win in Rounds 2 and 3 when he meets Johns on Saturday's ESPN+ preliminary card.
Gibson returns to the UFC for a second stint after a runner-up finish on the latest season of The Ultimate Fighter. Gibson went just 1-3 in his first UFC stint (2014-2015), but he's 7-2 in a post-UFC run before returning to the promotion for TUF, where he lost to Brad Katona in the tournament final.
We know Gibson has the experience and won't be rattled by the bright lights of the UFC. I like that Gibson enters this fight with some meaningful height and reach advantages.
And for this bet specifically, I also like that Gibson has prior five-round experience (title fights in Tachi Palace Fights), and he's got a host of second- and third-round finishes during his 16-year pro career.
Johns, meanwhile, is undoubtedly going to look to chop down Gibson with low kicks. And he's scored a few highlight-reel KOs in the UFC. But a failed drug test followed those wins, and otherwise, Johns has largely racked up decision victories against his better competition.
Additionally, both of John's losses have come via stoppage – one in the second round and one in the third.
I think Gibson will have a better game plan than the one he did against Katona, and I like his chances of finding a late-fight stoppage. So I'll split my MMA Prop Squad pick into two and take Gibson to win in Round 2 (+1200) and Round 3 (+1900).
The Picks: Cody Gibson in Round 2 (+1200 at FanDuel), Round 3 (+1900 at FanDuel)
Dan Tom: Payton Talbott in Round 2 (+850), in Round 3 (+1400)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to target some "hot rounds" in a main-card matchup between Payton Talbott (-154) and Cameron Saaiman (+130).
Whenever I refer to "hot rounds," I typically mean rounds in which there is serious potential for a particular party to finish.
In this case, I believe that Talbott, who has traditionally been a bit of a slow starter, is a prime candidate for fighters you want to bet on in later rounds.
Although Saaiman has yet to be finished as a professional, the South African's aggressive style allows him to take a decent amount of damage in victory or defeat.
Not only does Talbott dish out damage in the form of concussive punches and slicing elbows, but the 25-year-old American also has a knack for finding knees (a technique that Saaiman has a habit of dipping into).
Add in the fact that the majority of Talbott's finishes come in the second round (six if you include his amateur career), and I can't help but sprinkle on Talbott to find something in Rounds 2 or 3 at these numbers.
The Picks: Payton Talbott in Round 2 (+850 at BetRivers) | Talbott in Round 3 (+1400 at BetRivers)
Tony Sartori: Edmen Shahbazyan by Submission (+1150)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:25 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC main card featured a bout between unranked middleweights Edmen Shahbazyan (-196) and AJ Dobson (+164). This line is so long because Shahbazyan has just one submission victory across his 12 pro wins, but there are a couple reasons why +1150 is worth a dart throw in this spot.
First, both guys love to mix things up. Meaning, they both stand and bang but also shoot for takedowns
I would be shocked if we didn't see portions of this scrap on the mat, which always brings the possibility of a submission into play. Shahbazyan comes from a wrestling background but has proven he can secure a submission when he locked in a rear-naked choke against Jack Marshman at UFC 239.
It's also worth noting that his one amateur fight on record was won by submission as well, though that obviously doesn't count on his official record. He is capable of locking in submissions, which could be the way he beats Dobson on the mat.
Prior to Dobson's professional debut, he lost his final amateur fight by submission. I also trust Dobson's chin to hold up when these guys exchange on the feet, given that he has never been knocked down in the UFC and has never been knocked out across 16 combined pro/amateur fights.
Oddsmakers are also telling us this fight is unlikely to need the judges' input, with the "Fight Doesn't Go to Decision" prop listed at -175. Shahbazyan is one of the biggest favorites on this card. If he's to win inside the distance, I think Dobson could be submitted during one of the wrestling exchanges we are likely to see, especially when you factor in that his chin will likely keep him in the fight when they are standing.
The Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan by Submission (+1150 at BetRivers)
Billy Ward: Justin Tafa by Round 1 KO (+460)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 p.m. ET
Sometimes, Prop Squad picks aren’t about technical analysis of the fighters or their styles. In those cases, the edge lies in too wide of a disparity between a fighter's moneyline and his or her likeliest win condition(s).
This is one of those cases. One of the Tafa brothers – as of now Justin (+152) – is taking on Karl Williams (-180) in the co-main event of UFC Vegas 89. Justin Tafa has four UFC wins – and none of them has lasted longer than two minutes.
For what it’s worth, he’s replacing his brother Junior (who replaced him about a month ago), who also has never won a UFC fight longer than two minutes.
Despite that, Tafa has a thoroughly unexciting moneyline price of +152 on FanDuel, but his first-round knockout prop is +430. That suggests that less than half the time he wins, it’s via that method – which is the only way he’s ever won a UFC fight.
Additionally, the technical side of things also favors this line. Williams wins fights by controlling opponents on the ground and sapping their energy. If he’s able to ground Tafa early, Tafa’s power will be somewhat limited as the fight progresses.
For a slightly safer bet, you could also take Tafa by knockout at any point at +220, or to win in the first two rounds at +240. I’m taking the bigger swing here, though, especially since I already took Tafa’s moneyline earlier in the week at +180.
