(Editor's note: Prior to the start of the main card, UFC officials announced the cancellation of Alex Perez vs. Manel Kape due to an undisclosed medical issue for Perez.)
Check out our UFC San Antonio best bets ahead of Saturday's ESPN event, which is also dubbed UFC: Vera vs. Sandhagen.
After two fight cancellations earlier this week, the fight card now features 11 bouts, which air live from AT&T Center in San Antonio (4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).
So where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed three fights and four picks on Saturday’s Texas fight card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from BetMGM.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
Sean Zerillo: Lucas Alexander vs. Steven Peterson
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:55 p.m. ET
Men's featherweight fights at the UFC level reach a decision around 55% of the time (-122 implied odds).
That number aligns with my price target for Saturday's bout between Lucas Alexander and Steven Peterson; I projected the fight to reach a decision 58.5% of the time (-141 implied), and I would bet the decision prop to -122.
This fight should be a relatively high-paced – but competitive – striking match in which the biggest threat to a finish is Peterson via submission.
Alexander has a trio of submission losses on his record, including a first-round loss in his UFC debut. Peterson has obvious grappling upside, and all of his fights manage to hit the mat at some point.
Still, "Ocho" isn't an exceptionally reliable wrestler; given the pricing on the fight to reach a decision – relative to how I rate the power and durability for both featherweights – we have to take a shot on the "over" or distance prop for this matchup.
The Pick: Alexander vs. Peterson goes to decision (-105 at DraftKings)
Dann Stupp: Chidi Njokuani vs. Albert Duraev
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
If Chidi Njokuani can stay upright, I really like his chances to cash as a modest favorite in the UFC San Antonio main-card opener.
Outside of the main event, that slot is arguably the most crucial on a fight card. It sets the tone for the featured fights to follow, and UFC officials often slot in guaranteed bangers and Fight of the Night frontrunners to kick off the main card.
In this case, officials are probably banking on Njokuani to strike early and give us at least five minutes of fireworks. After that opening round, though, Njokuani's effectiveness often wanes.
But I'm not sure that's going to be an issue here. His UFC San Antonio opponent, fellow middleweight Albert Duraev, looks pretty good on paper. He's a grappler with a majority of his wins coming via submission. However, all four of his losses are via knockout, and cardio and durability aren't exactly among his strengths.
Njokuani has a wealth of big-show experience – UFC, Contender Series, Bellator, RFA and even ol' Tachi Palace Fights. He's also a fearless striker who won't give Duraev, who's fought just once since late 2021, the time he likely needs to settle in and find his openings.
Njokuani is a precision striker, and Duraev is too hittable. I think we'll get the proof on Saturday night.
I like Njokuani straight up on the moneyline (-155 at Caesars) for one unit, and I'm also going to take Njokuani via KO (+125 at BetRivers) for a half unit.
If Njokuani wins by decision, we're still guaranteed a small profit (+.15 units). But if he wins by KO, we clear 1.28 units for a nice little return.
The Picks: Njokuani (-155 at Caesars, 1u) | Njokuani via KO (+125 at BetRivers, 0.5u)
Billy Ward: Marlon Vera vs. Cory Sandhagen
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
Normally I try to leave the longer odds picks for our “Prop Squad” feature, but this one falls just short of the threshold – and is my favorite angle on the card. Marlon “Chito” Vera is headlining this one against fellow bantamweight title contender Cory Sandhagen.
Both men are exciting strikers with Sandhagen known for his prolific output and Vera for his high-impact strikes. Both average fewer than a takedown per 15 minutes in the UFC octagon, so this one should be decided mainly on the feet.
Vera has a bit of the Petr Yan syndrome, with which he somewhat willingly gives away the first round of fights while building for the later rounds. That’s a trait I like to fade in three-round fights, but it can be beneficial in five-round fights like this one. Vera is 2-0 in UFC fights that start the fourth round while Sandhagen is just 1-2.
The leg kicks of Vera are a big factor here as well since they’re unlikely to end Sandhagen’s night early, but they should pay dividends if this one makes it to the championship rounds. Which it should, thanks to Vera’s outstanding durability – he’s never been finished as a professional. The "over 4.5 rounds" being favored at -160 is another clue of the likeliest outcome here.
The DraftKings same game parlay feature gives us a ton of options here too, depending on your risk tolerance. You could take this one all the way up to +600 with Vera by decision, or go more conservatively with the over 1.5 rounds, or even over 4.5 minutes.
Another angle worth considering if you’re watching the fight is Vera live, as you could get a similar price on his moneyline if he loses the first round as he generally does. Either way, Vera in the late rounds is the angle we’re looking for here.
The Pick: Same Game Parlay: Vera & over 2.5 rounds (+300 at DraftKings)
