Check out our UFC Sao Paulo Luck Ratings as we look into some mispriced betting lines for Saturday's Lewis vs. Almeida event and see which fighters are overvalued and which are undervalued.
UFC Sao Paulo, which features a heavyweight main event of Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis, takes place at Ibirapuera Gymnasium in Brazil. The preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET (3 p.m. PT), and the main card kicks off at 9 p.m. ET.
The entire 11-bout UFC Sao Paulo fight card streams live on ESPN+.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
* Odds as of Monday and via DraftKings
UFC Sao Paulo Odds and Early Bets
Jailton Almeida (-470) vs. Derrick Lewis (+360)
With the recent booking of Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall for the interim UFC heavyweight title, Almeida's odd-man-out status among the top heavyweight prospects is fairly clear.
However, he's arguably next in line for a shot at heavyweight gold once the UFC sorts out the Jon Jones-Stipe Miocic situation.
Almeida was set for a tough test against perennial contender Curtis Blaydes here, which would've gone a long way to prove his status as a top heavyweight. Unfortunately, Blaydes is out with an injury – but they found a suitable replacement in Derrick "The Black Beast" Lewis.
This is a horrible stylistic matchup for the grappling-challenged Lewis, especially considering the lack of a training camp to prepare for "Maladinho." We saw the impact of taking fights on short notice at UFC 294, with all three replacement fighters losing. It's also an ideal matchup to raise Almeida's profile, given the name value Lewis brings to the table.
As with most heavyweights, both men have finished (or been finished in) the vast majority of their bouts, leading little room for "luck" on their records.
The moneyline odds feel about right given all the factors. If I'm betting this one, I'll probably look to the finish/submission markets for Almeida, but I expect those to be fairly heavily juiced as well.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Rodrigo Nascimento (-185) vs. Don'Tale Mayes (+154)
Another heavyweight bout on the main card, but this time it's a rematch absolutely nobody asked for.
Rodrigo Nascimento holds a second-round submission win over Don'Tale Mayes back in May 2020 with a 2-1 record (officially) since their bout.
Mayes is officially 3-1 since the pair last met. However, I keep saying "officially" because both men have overturned bouts in that span. Mayes lost an embarrassingly bad split decision to a UFC newcomer who took the bout on short notice, but he had it overturned due to his opponent failing a drug test.
Nascimento had a second-round TKO victory overturned due to testing positive for Ritalin – and has since been granted a therapeutic use exemption since it's a prescribed medication.
All of which is to say Nascimento has been better since their last meeting than the record suggests, while Mayes has been worse. There's also the first fight to consider, which Nascimento dominated with his grappling.
Historically, the previous winner and the younger fighter win rematches at rates greater than the betting odds suggest – and Nascimento is both here.
On top of that, this event is in Brazil, where Brazilian fighters tend to do very well – and the UFC tends to book fights to ensure those fighters mostly win. This is a common theme when the promotion leaves the U.S., including at UFC 294, where Russian fighters went undefeated.
For some reason, early money has come in on Mayes, driving Nascimento down from -225 or so to -185 at DraftKings. Other books still have him on the other side of -200.
It's hard to say whether this is a trend that will continue or cooler heads will prevail. Personally, I'm fine with jumping on the line at -185, but you might be able to grab a better line later in the week.
Verdict: Rodrigo Nascimento Undervalued
Rodolfo Viera (-110) vs. Armen Petrosyan (-110)
We have two middleweights with drastically differing styles meeting on the main card this weekend.
Rodolfo Viera is a high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist with six UFC fights, and just one made it to the final bell.
Petrosyan is a former kickboxer who has seen nothing but decisions in his four-fight UFC run.
Obviously, something has to give here, with the outcome of the bout heavily correlated to when it ends, and where the bulk of the bout is contested. Viera has the questionable cardio we've come to know and love from BJJ fighters while Petrosyan is a high-volume striker who tends to build as fights go on.
That makes this fairly easy to bet if you want to play both sides of it. Viera inside the distance, or a parlay with him and under 1.5 rounds, is an obvious option. Which then could be hedged with a Petrosyan decision, or Petrosyan and over.
Additionally, one could take slightly more of a stand on the "finish-only" or "decision-only" lines, which are voided if the fight doesn't end the way stated in the bet.
Broadly though, I'd lean toward Viera in this matchup. There's an outside shot he gets some home cooking from the judges if this one goes all 15 minutes. Additionally, Petrosyan has struggled to defend takedowns from other Brazilian grapplers. Caio Borrahlo landed four of five, and Gregory Rodriguez two of three against Petrosyan.
I expect the line to move slightly to Viera throughout the week, but I still prefer betting some form of time/method prop on this fight instead of the moneyline.
Verdict: Rodolfo Viera Undervalued
Denise Gomes (-130) vs. Angela Hill (+110)
Similar to the above middleweight fight, we have another pairing between a Brazilian finisher and a non-Brazilian decision machine.
This time it's Denise Gomes as a slight favorite against Angela Hill.
Hill's last 10 UFC bouts have all gone to the judges, with a 4-6 record in that span. While she's 0-3 in split decisions, two of those were fairly clearly the right call in my eyes.
Either way, Hill has a clear pattern of not doing much to clearly pull away in her fights. She's a high-output striker with limited power, and she has only recently begun to add offensive grappling to her game.
Hill is also 38 – ancient in strawweight years. The lighter divisions depend heavily on speed and reaction time – two of the first attributes to fade with age. While the bottom hasn't dropped out yet, fighters tend to age in a hurry.
Which is a bad sign against the 23-year-old Gomes, one of the women's divisions' more exciting young prospects. After dropping her UFC debut (by getting outgrappled), she's picked up consecutive knockout victories. She also showed off her own grappling abilities, claiming three takedowns in her win over Bruna Brasil.
Gomes has a 15-year age gap, finishing ability, and potentially friendly judging all on her side. That's worth more than -130 in my eyes.
