Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis Odds
Check out the Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis odds, pick and prediction as the heavyweights meet in the UFC Sao Paulo headliner on Saturday night.
This exciting heavyweight clash features No. 9-ranked UFC heavyweight contender Almeida vs. No. 10-ranked Lewis.
Lewis, who is the UFC's all-time knockout king (14), will make his 11th appearance in a UFC main event as part of Saturday's; however, the Houston native hasn't seen a fourth round since his 2017 loss to Mark Hunt. And he's replacing Curtis Blaydes on short notice.
Brazil's Almeida is 6-0 under the UFC banner with each of his wins coming within eight minutes. The jiu-jitsu specialist has seen a third round only once in his professional career (he lost a decision), is a natural light heavyweight, and was knocked out at middleweight in 2017.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Sao Paulo: Almeida vs. Lewis main event and utilize those factors to bet on these heavyweights, who should make their cage walks at approximately 10:55 p.m. ET.
Tale of the Tape
| Almeida | Lewis | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-2 | 27-11 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 5:05 | 8:30 |
| Height | 6-foot-3 | 6-foot-3 |
| Weight (pounds) | 236 pounds | 265 pounds |
| Reach (inches) | 79" | 79" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/26/1991 | 2/7/1985 |
| Sig Strikes Per Minute | 3.81 | 2.60 |
| SS Accuracy | 64% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Minute | 0.30 | 2.59 |
| SS Defense | 25% | 41% |
| Take Down Avg | 6.40 | 0.59 |
| TD Acc | 68% | 28% |
| TD Def | 50% | 52% |
| Submission Avg | 2.5 | 0.0 |
Although the two fighters have the same height and reach, Lewis is the bigger man and the more powerful puncher – with nearly a 30-pound weight advantage over Almeida.
Conversely, Almeida should have a severe speed advantage and will look to close the distance and exploit Lewis' subpar takedown defense (52% career) without getting caught as he enters; Curtis Blaydes, whom Almeida was initially supposed to face, did in his loss to Lewis.
Almeida vs. Blaydes was a more intriguing matchup for a 25-minute fight than Almeida vs. Lewis; Blaydes seemingly could counter-grapple, keep their fight on the feet, and drag Almeida to deeper waters, where Blaydes would have had a cardio advantage.
Saturday's UFC Sao Paulo main event is much more binary than the initially scheduled bout and is one of the more heavily juiced (as high as -3300 or 97% implied) to end inside the distance I have seen.
Almeida might be the best grappler in the heavier weight classes, and Lewis has as good of a puncher's chance in any fight as anyone in combat sports history.
Stylistically, it's not so dissimilar from Almeida's recent fight against Jairzinho Rozenstruik. If anything, Rozenstruik has better first-layer takedown defense than Lewis.
Almeida seems likely to land takedowns early in this matchup and get to dominant positions on the mat. He'll look to take Lewis' back or flatten him out to find moments to sink in a choke – and would probably be better served to prioritize control or submission attempts – rather than leveraging up to land ground and pound.
If he keeps Lewis wrapped up, Almeida should find opportunities to sink in a choke, but if he gives Lewis any space to separate, "The Black Beast" has shown an uncanny ability to "just stand up" from bottom position:
— MrTestoestrogen (@MrTestoestrogen) November 18, 2022
I doubt Lewis will be able to explode as efficiently – flat on his back against Almeida – as he has been in the past against other opponents.
There aren't many heavyweights on the planet who can compete with Almeida's jiu-jitsu prowess, and he's also a decent wrestler for a jiu-jitsu practitioner, which is relatively uncommon. He provides a different level of top pressure and technical acumen than Lewis is accustomed to facing.
Still, Almeida uses much energy to complete his takedowns and against these heavyweights. If Lewis can survive the first round – and make Almeida take him down a couple of times – perhaps he can find an opportunity to catch a tiring opponent as the fight extends.
While Lewis loads up for big punches – and can clip and hurt Almeida anytime on the feet – he still seems likely to lose minutes in a lower-paced, distance striking matchup, as he did in the first round against Blaydes.
Lewis is exceptionally hittable (41% striking defense) and incredibly vulnerable to both the legs and body; I could see Almeida feeling things out on the feet for a couple of minutes – and hammering Lewis with body and head kicks – before deciding to change levels.
Almeida vs. Lewis Pick
I projected Jailton Almeida as an 80.4% favorite (-409 implied odds) in this UFC Sao Paulo matchup, and I don't see value on either side of the moneyline. Lewis is closer to the value side, but I need at least +468.
Additionally, while I expect the fight to end inside the distance 95% of the time (-1900 implied odds), there is no value in that market either, with the odds at +1200 and -3300 on either side of that prop.
I see value in Almeida winning by submission (projected -152, listed -120 at FanDuel) and Lewis winning by knockout (projected +466, listed +475 at BetRivers). There's a more substantial edge on Almeida's submission prop, which I'd bet to -140, but you could structure a position with both wagers.
Almeida in Round 1 (-138 at WynnBet) seems enticing and likely cashes, but I'd rather have him by one method for 25 minutes (and at reduced juice) than winning by either KO or submission for only five minutes.
If Almeida knocks out Lewis, I think it comes on the feet via body or head kick rather than ground and pound. Lewis will turn into a submission attempt rather than taking damage from hammerfists.
The Pick: Jailton Almeida Wins by Submission (-120 at FanDuel)
