Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of UFC Sao Paulo prop bets with oversized odds for Saturday's ESPN+ event.
Each Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts. They have tallied +26.4 units and a +9.8% ROI per bet since forming in 2022.
This week marks the return of squad members Bryan Fonseca, Tony Sartori, John LanFranca, Billy Ward and Clint MacLean.
Check out their picks for Saturday's event, which kicks off at 6 p.m. ET (3 p.m. PT) from Sao Paulo, below.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
(Bet on all of the UFC Sao Paulo action with our BetMGM promo code!)
UFC Sao Paulo Props and Picks
Bryan Fonseca: Denise Gomes by Round 3 KO (+1800)
Contributor at The Action Network and combat sports host and on-air talent
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
I hate this bet – but it's worth a sprinkle.
I'd go as far as saying Angela Hill has been one of my favorite UFC fighters for years.
She's been robbed about four times in her career from unfavorable judging, she fights anyone, and she has been a meaningful staple of the strawweight division for most of her near 30-fight career.
She's active, always competitive, and is great for the sport – but I also think this bout with Denis Gomes might be a setup.
How many times in combat sports have we seen a young and hungry heavy hitter dispose of a well-respected veteran and former contender?
Literally every month you could track 'em down – whether it's in MMA, boxing or another combat sport.
Hill is 38, has competed in MMA for nine years, was a kickboxer for two years before that, and just got her ass kicked by Mackenzie Dern in May. Dern was able to outstrike a striker, and you could say it's due to the threat of her jiu-jitsu, but she beat Hill to the punch repeatedly.
While she had competitive moments, it was the most one-sided loss of her career.
Gomes is just 23, is 8-0 with six knockouts, and is coming off a 20-second finish over Yazmin Jauregui at UFC 290 in July. Gomes is fighting in her home Brazil, and she could neutralize anyone – even Hill – with her heavy hands.
Hill has never been stopped in 13 losses, but there's a first time for most, and against a power striker 15 years her junior, this sets up to be that.
And I sprinkle on Round 3, in particular, because the stoppage is just +310 – that's not Prop Squad-worthy! – but also, it accounts for Hill's general toughness. Round 1 at +700 is also worth an eye.
The Pick: Denise Gomes by Round 3 KO/TKO (+1800 at BetRivers)
Tony Sartori: Rodolfo Vieira by Decision (+650)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET
Saturday's main card features a middleweight bout between Rodolfo Vieira and Armen Petrosyan.
Simply put, in a fight that is a pick'em, there is so much value on the stronger grappler to win on the judges' scorecards at +650.
Of course, Vieira's game plan will involve bringing this fight to the mat and securing a submission win.
But Petrosyan knows this and is more than capable of fending off those submissions. So, is there not a world where Vieira is unable to lock in that sub but still accumulates enough control time and takedowns to win over the judges? Absolutely.
We saw Petrosyan lose by unanimous decision to Caio Borralho last July, a bout in which Borralho landed four of five takedowns and accumulated north of 10 minutes of control time. The number is so wide here because, as I alluded to above, Vieira is going to be hunting for submissions the entire fight and has never won professionally via decision.
However, Petrosyan is a very capable grappler who has never been submitted. In what is expected to be a closely contested fight, give me a shot at better than 6/1 on Vieira to rack up control time during submission efforts and win via decision.
The Pick: Rodolfo Vieira by Decision (+650 at BetRivers)
John LanFranca: Abus Magomedov by Decision (+800)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
The MMA betting community was split on Abus Magomedov versus the current middleweight champ Sean Strickland matchup earlier this year, and now the market has seen too steep of overcorrection after that one fight result.
Magomedov had only one of his previous 13 bouts hit the scorecards before taking on Strickland. Magomedov went into the fight aggressively hunting for the first-round finish, and while he did land several potentially fight-ending shots, Strickland was simply too durable, and in turn, Magomedov gassed out badly.
Abus attempted nearly 100 significant strikes in the first six ot seven minutes of the fight – something I do not expect him to repeat after his cardio failed to hold up.
We haven’t seen Magomedov’s grappling tested in years, but it undoubtedly will be on Saturday night against contender Caio Borralho.
With that said, Borralho is a patient fighter, and he tends to play it safe on the feet when the fight is in kickboxing range.
After the last performance by Magomedov, I expect him to also implement a patient game plan that revolves around maintaining distance. He is probably going to find himself on the mat a few times, but as we have seen in recent UFC events, damage has taken precedence over control in the judges’ eyes.
If Barrolho has trouble closing the distance without taking damage, this fight could play out much closer than the line suggests. I am willing to take a shot that Magomedov comes in with a completely different mindset given the matchup and his most recent performance.
The Pick: Abus Magomedov by Decision (+800 at DraftKings)
Billy Ward: Jailton Almeida in Round 2 (+600)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 p.m. ET
UFC Sao Paulo was supposed to be the first major test for Jailton Almeida against a legitimate heavyweight contender in Curtis Blaydes. Almeida was and is arguably a fight or two away from a title shot, and getting past the always-tough Blaydes would be a major feather in his cap.
As per usual with recent UFC headliners, that plan didn’t come to fruition. Instead of Blaydes, Almeida is taking on “The Black Beast” Derrick Lewis. While Lewis holds a win over Blaydes, he’s also 38 years old, 1-3 in his last four, and not exactly known for his preparation or conditioning even in the best of circumstances.
All of which results in Almeida becoming a massive favorite, in the -500 range depending on the outlet. Which is hard to argue with, given the stylistic challenge Almeida presents. As an elite grappler with excellent takedowns (which has been Lewis’ kryptonite in the UFC), Almeida is -190 to end things in the first round, which is a strong indicator of how oddsmakers expect this one to go.
On the other hand, Almeida is a former light heavyweight who tipped the scales at “just” 236 pounds on Friday. Lewis hit the heavyweight max at 265, and he probably cut weight to get there. That means Lewis will have a 30-plus-pounds weight advantage in the cage on Saturday.
Which is a huge boost to his “just-stand-up” style of jiu-jitsu, with which he forces his way up through sheer size and strength. It’s an effective strategy – but also a taxing one.
That leads to our prop, which is essentially a bet on Lewis being able to “just stand up” a couple times in the first round. From there, I expect the lack of training camp to catch up to him and for Almeida to finish it in the second.
“Fight to start Round 2” at +165 is a more cautious way to bet this angle if you’re looking for a safer leg, as well.
The Pick: Jailton Almeida in Round 2 (+600 at FanDuel)
Clint MacLean: Jailton Almeida by Round 2 Submission (+1000)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 p.m. ET
Jailton Almeida is the biggest threat to the UFC heavyweight division. This man has a high-level grappling game and has filled out while moving up from 205 pounds to the heavyweight division.
We just saw Derrick Lewis get back on track in his last fight, but he is 2-2 against grapplers in his career, so this will be an uphill battle for him.
Almeida is patient, and as my colleague Billy Ward concurred above, this is the big key for my prop in the main event this week.
Lewis understands that the floor is lava this week, but that doesn't mean he won't end up there.
In his recent fight against Shamil Abdurakhimov, Almeida extended the match until the second round, making sure to mind the distance and range on the feet until he felt comfortable and broke his foe, who finally presented the submission later in the evening.
Lewis has a tendency to be tough to keep down once you get him there, and combined with Almeida looking not to get hit, I do believe that the main event will see the second round, but the inevitable will still happen.
The Pick: Jailton Almeida by Round 2 Submission (+1000 at DraftKings)
