Sergei Pavlovich vs. Alexander Volkov Odds
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Here's everything you need to know about the Sergei Pavlovich vs. Alexander Volkov odds for UFC Saudi Arabia on Saturday, June 22.
The UFC Saudi Arabia co-headliner this weekend features an intriguing heavyweight affair.
In a series of card shufflings and re-bookings that have been prominent for the promotion as of late, Alexander Volkov – who was initially slated to face Jailton Almeida back at UFC 302 – will now step onto Saudi soil to help bolster this afternoon fight card.
Awaiting Volkov is fellow Russian and former title challenger Sergei Pavlovich.
Not only is Pavlovich one of the division's more imposing figures, but the Russian refrigerator is also a former Volkov training partner, making this match all the more interesting.
Below, check out my UFC prediction and pick for Pavlovich vs. Volkov, including a bet on the total.
Tale of the Tape
| Pavlovich | Volkov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-2 | 37-10 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 3:13 | 12:43 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 260 lbs. | 258 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 84" | 80" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/13/1992 | 10/24/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 8.21 | 5.10 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 57% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.61 | 3.00 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 63% |
| TD Def | 75% | 73% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.2 |
Despite coming from completely different martial arts bases, both men prefer to funnel fights into striking affairs.
Pavlovich, for example, comes from a Greco-Roman wrestling background, but rather than clinch fighting, he clearly prefers punching people's heads into the first row.
Shaped like a 1950s Frigidaire with giant arms attached to the side of it, Pavlovich does a surprisingly decent job of staying on balance with solid striking fundamentals that largely keep him operating over his feet.
Displaying the occasional feint, Pavlovich likes to wait for his opponent's reactions in order to punch with them in the pocket.
And given the state of Pavlovich's heavy hands, the Russian powerhouse traditionally tends to come out of said scenarios successfully.
Still, Pavlovich will need to respect the length and savvy that Volkov brings to the table.
Aside from his tall frame that prompted the apt nickname "Drago," Volkov shows solid footwork and agility for a man of his size.
Coming from a Kyokushin karate background (which is basically sport karate), Volkov has a knack for the in-and-out movements associated with more fencing styles of fighting.
Not only does this accentuate Volkov's length, but it also helps draw his opposition into his patent countercrosses.
Volkov has shown off more of his grappling in an offensive fashion as of late, so no one should be shocked if the 35-year-old veteran looks to shake things up opposite Pavlovich's suspect ground game this Saturday.
Pavlovich vs. Volkov Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the former title challenger, listing Pavlovich -250 and Volkov +198 as of this writing.
As someone who has been high on Pavlovich in the past, I can understand the enthusiasm bettors have for such an exciting knockout artist.
However, I always have a hard time swallowing heavyweight odds north of a 2-1 spread no matter who is involved.
Aside from the fact that this fight should be lined closer to pick'em odds regardless of which side you favor, heavyweight is the most volatile division in a sport that's already high in volatility from an outcome perspective.
Moreover, I'd argue that Volkov is the more skilled and proven product, making him incredibly live as an underdog given his current asking price.
Considering that Pavlovich doesn't tend to counter kicks (a common culprit for the few instances Volkov has been hurt), I find myself siding with the "Drago" and will likely take some of his moneyline given the perceived value.
Whether or not you agree that it's 'dog-or pass from a moneyline perspective, I believe that the safer plus money lies in the totals department.
Not only is heavyweight "overs" a quiet contrarian spot that tends to hit more often than you'd think (especially with the current crop of UFC heavyweights), but both of these men are former training partners – which is also a huge red flag for action-friendly fights in my experience.
Plan according, but I think that we're in for a tentative and tedious affair between two men who know each other all too well.
The Pick: Pavlovich-Volkov "Over 1.5 rounds" (+130 at FanDuel)
