Check out UFC Saudi Arabia odds and best bets for the ABC-televised afternoon event on Saturday, June 22.
UFC Saudi Arabia takes place at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Following the preliminary card on ESPN at noon ET (9 a.m. PT), the main card airs on ABC at 3 p.m. ET.
So where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks on Saturday’s afternoon card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from BetMGM.
UFC Saudi Arabia odds for matchups as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
UFC Saudi Arabia Odds & Best Bets
Billy Ward: Rinat Fakhretdinov vs. Nicolas Dalby
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 1:25 p.m. ET
Nicolas Dalby is on a four-fight winning streak, including the last three of those as an underdog. The most recent of those was a knockout victory as a +455 'dog against Gabriel Bonfim back in November.
Despite – or perhaps because of – his advanced age (39), Dalby keeps getting disrespected by the market – and keeps proving them wrong.
I’m certainly interested in Dalby’s +300 or so moneyline here, and I will be taking a sprinkle on that as well. However, there’s a better way.
Dalby's “point spread” at DraftKings relies on him just winning one of the three rounds while not being finished, in a fight that’s -175 to hit the judges. Dalby (+280) now fights Rinat Fakhretdinov (-355), who has just one finish in the UFC – and it came against Kevin Lee, who tore his ACL while entering the octagon.
Dalby has also never been finished officially, with his one submission loss overturned due to his opponent’s failed steroid test. With a background in karate, he’s since made significant strides in the grappling department. While he’s still not great at stopping takedowns, his ability to survive on the ground is impressive.
Most importantly, Dalby has a massive cardio edge here. Fakhretdinov fell apart down the stretch in his last fight, losing the final round 10-8, while cardio is arguably Dalby’s best attribute. To cash this ticket, we just need Dalby to win the third round, so it feels like a pretty safe bet at plus money.
The Pick: Nicholas Dalby +3.5 point spread (+120 at DraftKings)
Sean Zerillo: Felipe Lima vs. Muhammad Naimov
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 1:55 p.m. ET
A lot is working against Felipe Lima (-110) in his UFC debut. He is up a weight class on short notice against a large featherweight in Muhammad Naimov (-110), who recently moved to 3-0 in the UFC.
Still, I'm not overly impressed by Naimov. He wrestles aggressively but doesn't land a lot of damage, has only 10 minutes of cardio, and was getting out-grappled by Jamie Mullarkey before landing a knockout blow against a chinny fighter.
Lima won the Oktagon MMA bantamweight title one year ago, showing impressive cardio, output and scrambling across a 25-minute fight. At 26 years old, he's in his athletic prime and training at a top camp at All-Stars MMA in Sweden.
Lima looks like a serious prospect and future contender; he has excellent footwork and combination striking and flows extremely well in grappling and wrestling exchanges. He aggressively pursues submission attempts on the ground but isn't content to accept the bottom position and stay on his back.
Naimov may land takedowns and win the opening round with superior size and strength. Still, Lima's relentlessness and superior cardio give him a strong probability of winning the final two frames and taking the fight.
Naimov is an incredibly public selection this week – receiving 69% support by the data points I select, on average – in a pick'em fight that has trended toward the other side (Lima opened +110).
I projected Lima as a 58.1% favorite (-139 implied), would bet his moneyline pre-fight to -130, and look to add more live on the Brazilian after Round 1.
The Pick: Felipe Lima (-114 at FanDuel)
Dann Stupp: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Alexander Volkov
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:25 p.m. ET
Before we jump into my Sergei Pavlovich (-225) vs. Alexander Volkov (-184) pick, a little backstory:
Growing up, we had the ultimate luxury for a middle-class family in Ohio: a garage fridge.
The Stupp clan stocked up on soda and other drinks when they went on sale at the local I.G.A. Our dinged-up early-'70s Kenmore fridge – a beautiful baby-poop yellow with faux-wood trim – could withstand anything. Well, anything except my mom's early-1980s Oldsmobile Custom Cruiser station wagon (which was regular-poop brown with faux-wood trim).
The fridge finally met its match and went up against a longer, more wily chunk of American machinery.
In Saturday afternoon's UFC Saudio co-main event, I think we're going to see a similar dynamic at play: the fridge (Pavlovich) vs. the wagon (Volkov) in this all-Russian matchup.
As Dan Tom detailed in our Pavlovich vs. Volkov preview, the underdog has a few points working in his favor. Volkov's long frame, solid low kicks, and his familiarity with Pavlovich as a former training partner should all help Volkov find some openings. And if the 6-foot-7 fighter finds his mark more than a few times, the seemingly indestructible Pavlovich may finally get smashed up like an ugly Midwest icebox.
At +200 odds, the betting market suggests Volkov wins this fight just 33.3% of the time. I put the odds closer to 40% (+150) to 50% (+100), which, in my mind, provides plenty of value in Saturday's co-main event.
The Pick: Alexander Volkov (+200 at Betfred)
Tony Sartori: Robert Whittaker vs. Ikram Aliskerov
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:55 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC main event features a middleweight bout between the No. 3-ranked contender Robert Whittaker (-148) and unranked Ikram Aliskerov (+124). Despite the difference in rankings, Aliskerov is just a short underdog, and I believe he should be even shorter.
So we will go where the value lies and back the underdog.
Now, I think Whittaker wins this fight more often than not and is correctly priced as the betting favorite. However, I think the only reason this line is as long as -160 is because the market respects his name more and doesn't necessarily trust the largely unproven aspect of Aliskerov's record.
We know what Whittaker's game plan will be: He will try to keep this fight on the mat and utilize his striking to rack up points and attempt to earn a decision victory. He has done this throughout the majority of his career – and very successfully.
However, the knockout power has not necessarily been there as he has gotten older, and Aliskerov's only professional loss is by KO/TKO to Khamzat Chimaev, who was initially supposed to be in this fight against Whittaker. Nobody has beaten Khamzat, one of the division's most feared prospects, so I don't hold that against Aliskerov at all, especially when you consider that Aliskerov is 15-0 outside of that loss.
The main reason I want to back the underdog at +135 is that there are just so many more avenues to victory for Aliskerov. Whittaker has the advantage in the stand up and will likely win those exchanges, but Aliskerov can handle that power and is no slouch in that department himself.
Aliskerov carries knockout power, and I think there is a world in which he beats Whittaker on the feet. Even if that is not the case, this fight will eventually go to the mat at one point, and that is where Aliskerov will have total control.
Aliskerov brings in a sambo and judo background that Whittaker will not be able to keep up with. To me, Whittaker has to win this fight on the feet (and he very well could), but Aliskerov can win in any situation the fighters find themselves in. So at +135, I will back the guy with more avenues to victory.
The Pick: Ikram Aliskerov (+135 at Caesars Sportsbook)
