Check out our UFC Saudi Arabia predictions for the Saturday, February 1, event at the ANB Arena in Riyadh, with prelims starting at 9 a.m. ET (6 a.m. PT). The main card goes down at noon ET, with former champion Israel Adesanya taking on Nassourdine Imavov in the main event. The entire card streams on ESPN+.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 11-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and found plenty of value on the early morning fight card.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches, plus Sean Zerillo's projections, below.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
UFC Saudi Arabia Best Bets
Bryan Fonseca: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Sergei Pavlovich
Contributor at Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 1:15 p.m. ET
I get it, honestly.
Sergei Pavlovich was that dude. He was on an absolute unequivocal tear across four years with six straight stoppages at heavyweight, including against Tai Tuivasa, Derrick Lewis, and Curtis Blaydes, among others. He was about 50/50 to beat Tom Aspinall for god's sake.
Unfortunately, he has lost two straight since, including a stoppage to Aspinall, and he hasn't had an impressive performance since April 2023. Rozenstruik has won two straight and just won a split over Tai Tuivasa at UFC 305 in August (though 100% of media members scoring the fight had it a clean sweep for Rozenstruik).
He doesn't look unbeatable by any means, but when you have two heavyweights with 28 knockouts across their combined 33 wins, I'm generally going to think the underdog is undervalued if the skillset is close enough.
If Rozenstruik survives a likely Round 1 blitz, I like his chances. Pavlovich has only made it to Round 2 once in almost eight years — his last fight — and he lost unanimously to Alexander Volkov.
I'll take a shot with Rozenstruik's cardio and power. We'll see if Pavlovich will overcome a cold spell, or if the book is truly out on him.
The Pick: Jairzinho Rozenstruik by KO/TKO or on points (Double Chance) +250 (FanDuel)
Sean Zerillo: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Sergei Pavlovich
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 1:15 p.m. ET
I agree with Bryan's assessment that Rozenstruik should look like the value side of the matchup if he survives a potential round-one blitz from Pavlovich. Consider betting the underdog live after Round 1 at an even juicier number than his pre-fight line.
The favorite, Pavlovich, is the taller and longer fighter (1" taller, 6" reach advantage), but he also has faster hands and should be able to win early striking exchanges both in the pocket and at range.
Still, it's worth noting that Pavlovich and Rozenstruik are former training partners who worked together at American Top Team in South Florida before Pavlovich left to join Eagles MMA (Khabib Nurmagomedov's team) in Russia.
It's not that the former training partners are tentative to hurt one another, but oftentimes, they do know one another's strengths and weaknesses so well that either is afraid to open up once it counts.
Pavlovich enters Saturday's fight off another scrap against a former training partner, Alexander Volkov, and he was relatively tentative in that matchup, coming off of a knockout loss against Tom Aspinall.
Rozenstruik is generally happy to stay on the perimeter of the cage against any fighter, exchange the occasional low kick, and try to counter as his opponent enters. If Pavlovich refuses to press forward and force a pace, we could see a relatively low-volume kickboxing matchup between these Heavyweights.
The betting market expects this fight to end by finish about 89% of the time (-800 consensus odds); however, I projected the number closer to 78% (projected -347), compared to a divisional baseline of 57.3%.
Bet the Over 1.5 Rounds to +150, and poke the distance prop to +400.
Furthermore, I show value on either fighter to win by decision. Rozenstruik has the better gas tank, but Pavlovich is the better athlete and likely has the grappling upside in this fight, too. Moreover, his cardio held up better than expected late in his loss against Volkov.
If I had to choose between Rozenstruik (projected +724, listed +1000) or Pavlovich (projected +878, listed +1100) to win by decision, I might choose the latter, but I'd save those props for round-robin tickets.
The Pick: Over 1.5 Rounds (+180 at BallyBet) | Fight Goes to Decision (+490 at FanDuel)
John Lanfranca: Sharaputdin Magomedov vs. Michael Page
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 1:45 p.m. ET
UFC Riyadh features a number of intriguing striking matchups, but the one most hardcore fans are looking forward to the most is none other than Shara Magomedov versus Michael ‘Venom” Page.
This bout will be contested at middleweight, and while Page will be the man moving up in weight class to take on this tremendous challenge, I believe he is the value side in the betting market and up to the task to give Magomedov his first career loss.
Despite being listed as a welterweight, the size disparity between these two men is minimal. In fact, Page is one inch taller with a six inch reach advantage. Any difference in weight on fight night will matter very little, as it’s unlikely we see any type of grappling; however, the reach advantage for Page could pay major dividends.
Page will have the ability to stay out of kicking range before darting into the fire as he tends to use his karate background to do. Magomedov’s kicking attack, with several variations to both the legs and body, will be much more difficult to execute with Page setting up a further distance from him.
Shara Magomedov is an undefeated prospect, and is deserving of all of the hype thrust upon him. Any middleweight in the world who stands in front of Magomedov is in danger. The good news for his opponent, Michael Page, is that his style is unlike any other Magomedov has seen to date.
The last time we saw Magomedov in the octagon, he impressed by besting another great striker in Armen Petrosyan. Petrosyan pushed the pace of the fight, but in doing so remained directly in front of the undefeated prospect. After Petrosyan unleashed his attacks, Magomedov had no problem firing back with counters, easily finding his opponent still in range. That simply does not translate to the type of striking exhibition we will see Magomedov have against Page.
Getting off to a fast start will be key for Page if he is going to win this fight. Magomedov tends to feel out his opponent for the first half of the opening round. Figuring out the timing against MVP is no easy task, thus I really like the chances of Page securing round 1 on the scorecards if he can lead the dance in volume from the opening bell.
In rounds 2 and 3, we are likely to be treated to a very high-level striking match. Page’s hand speed, movement, and counter attacks present a very unique puzzle for Magomedov to attempt to solve. At +150 or better, I am willing to take my chances Page can get his hand raised more than 40% of the time in this particular matchup.
The Pick: Michael Page +160 (Caesars)
Billy Ward: Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 2:15 p.m. ET
The UFC Saudi Arabia main event gives us two fighters trending in opposite directions.
Former champion Israel Adesanya is stepping into the cage with no title on the line for the first time in 13 fights, while Nassourdine Imavov has won three in a row against middleweights ranked inside the UFC's top ten.
A win over Adesanya would still be a big step up, but Imavov has shown an ability against the division's best. The Dagestani-born, French-based fighter has a solid kickboxing base, with better output and efficiency numbers than Adesanya. More importantly, he's continued to improve his offensive wrestling, which could be the key against "The Last Stylebender."
We saw Dricus du Plessis use a wrestling-heavy game plan to wear Adesanya out early in their title fight last August, before eventually hurting him on the feet and finishing with a club-and-sub. Imavov is, at worst, equally as capable of a grappler as du Plessis — though admittedly less physically powerful.
If he can force Adensaya to carry his weight early, that will open up striking avenues later in the fight. Both due to fatigue, and by giving Adesanya something else to watch out for. While Imavov isn't a cardio machine by any stretch, he's performed well in the championship rounds in recent fights.
Plus, he's seven years younger, and Adesanya has plenty of miles on the odometer between MMA, kickboxing, and boxing fights. That's especially concerning for him, considering how much he relies on speed and reflexes — typically the first skills to go.
I took this one early in the week as part of my Luck Ratings, and the line has only moved a bit since then. I'd play Imavov down to +120, but it's +140 at both BetMGM and Caesars.
The Pick: Nassourdine Imavov +140 (Caesars)
