Check out our UFC picks with our favorite long-shot UFC Saudi Arabia props for Saturday, February 1.
UFC Saudi Arabia takes place at the ANB Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The entire card stream on ESPN+ begins at 9 a.m. ET, with the main card formally kicking off at noon.
With 11 fights on the card, UFC Saudi Arabia prop opportunities are plentiful, and the MMA Prop Squad has found three picks they like for the early morning event.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
UFC Saudi Arabia odds for matchups as of Thursday and via DraftKings unless otherwise noted. Bet on UFC Saudi Arabia with our DraftKings promo code!
UFC Saudi Arabia Props Predictions
Billy Ward: Damir Hadzovic vs. Terrance McKinney
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:45 a.m. ET
Terrance McKinney is 15-7 as a professional MMA fighter. A whopping 14 of those wins — including all seven in the UFC — have come in the very first round. Sportsbooks have more than adjusted to that fact, however, and McKinney's Round 1 props range from -135 to -160 or so, absurd numbers for a specific round prop in most circumstances.
There's a corollary to McKinney's fast starts though, and that's an equally rapid fade if his opponents manage to survive the opening salvo. All seven of his professional losses have come inside of two rounds, with three of them happening specifically in Round 2.
It's hard to feel too good about Damir Hadzovic's chances generally, of course. The 38-year-old hasn't fought since July of 2023, and his last win came in 2021. However, he's been relatively tough to finish in his MMA career, with five of his seven losses coming on the judge's scorecard.
The likeliest outcome here is that a McKinney blitz works out, and Hadzovic gets sent packing early. If that doesn't happen, though, Hadzovic is in a perfect position to get him out of there in the second round.
While my typical Prop Squad recommendation is 0.25 units, with the long odds here I'm recommending 0.1 units, but willing to bet another 0.1 units on Hadzovic live at about the halfway point of the first round. I'd hate to walk away empty-handed if the thesis of Hadzovic surviving an early storm proves correct, but he finds a finish late in the first frame.
Outside of the live angle, you could also take Hadzovic's Round 1 or Round 2 prop at FanDuel, with still strong odds of +750.
The Pick: Damir Hadzovic in Round 2 +1800 (FanDuel)
John Lanfranca: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 1:15 p.m. ET
While I am excited about the heavyweight collision between Sergei Pavlovich and Jairzinho Rozenstruik on the main card this Saturday, there is undoubtedly a path for this bout to disappoint in terms of expected fireworks.
If this fight plays out on the feet with both men slugging it out to see who is truly the more powerful man, this longshot prop has very little chance of cashing. However, Pavlovich can and will dictate where this fight takes place. While Pavlovich carries an abundance of power in his hands, the much smarter game plan would be to exploit Rozenstruik’s lack of grappling defense.
Pavlovich will need to be measured in his approach due to his cardio concerns, thus securing a takedown in the early going to get the lead on the scorecards should be something he pursues. This should drain some of the power Rozenstruik brings to the table, but in turn, it also may make Pavlovich’s striking attack less explosive in the latter rounds.
Looking back at Rozenstruik’s fight with Curtis Blaydes could provide a blueprint for the Pavlovich camp. Blaydes landed exactly one takedown in each of the three rounds, with Rozenstruik landing just 18 significant strikes in the entire 15 minutes. Blaydes cruised to a unanimous decision victory.
It’s also worth noting Pavlovich has never won a fight by submission. Sure, he could easily find a ground-and-pound finish over the outmatched Rozenstruik on the mat, but racking up control time by prioritizing position may be the path of least resistance.
Rozenstruik has been taken down in the first round in two of his last three fights. If we can avoid a first-round firefight, I believe there is quite a bit of value in the substantial favorite to win this contest on points.
The Pick: Sergei Pavlovich by decision +1100 (FanDuel)
Bryan Fonseca: Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 2:15 p.m. ET
Billy Ward says Imavov is undervalued, and even as someone who is higher than Israel Adesanya than some measure of consensus, I agree.
Do I feel confident betting against Izzy? No, but in a longshot setting, Why not? Imavov, 29, is riding a three-fight win streak, including a stoppage over former Adesanya foe Jared Cannonier in June. He has three stoppage wins over his last eight fights going back to July of 2021.
Adesanya is clearly on the downside of his career. The question is, does his downside end at a Dricus du Plessis loss, indicating that he could still be an upper-card guy or contender? Or, is the bottom about to fall off of an all-time great who is 35 with 28 MMA fights, 75 kickboxing bouts and six pro boxing matches in his combat sports career?
That doesn't include rigorous training in between, sparring sessions, injuries and amateur experience. He also has zero impressive performances since the Alex Pereira stoppage win nearly two years ago. He did lose in back-to-back title fights, where he was favored each time and lost surprisingly in both instances.
Imavov is well-rounded and has the power edge. Adesanya will attempt to counterstrike from a distance, but can he do it successfully for five rounds? Or until he finds his own opening, as he did against Periera, who showcased hilariously negligent defense while exchanging on the inside? We'll find out.
Imavov is worth a longshot sprinkle, as history would tell us in combat sports.
The Pick: Nassourdine Imavov by KO/TKO +650 (BetRivers)
