Check out our UFC picks for Saudi Arabia with our favorite long-shot UFC prop bets for Saturday, June 22.
UFC Saudi Arabia takes place Saturday afternoon at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Following a preliminary card on ESPN (noon ET), the main card airs on ABC beginning at 3 p.m. ET. The full card is also available on ESPN+.
Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +22.3 units and a +5.5% ROI per bet during two years of action.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
UFC Saudi Arabia odds for matchups as of Saturday and via ESPN BET. Make your UFC bets with your BetRivers promo code.
UFC Picks – MMA Prop Squad Predictions
Liam Heslin: Club-and-Sub Special
Contributor at The Action Network and host of Liam Picks Fights
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:25 p.m. ET
For my Prop Squad pick this week, I'm playing two submission angles for the Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (-370) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+275) preliminary-card fight.
The light heavyweights meet in the second bout of the afternoon, and I think we're likely to see it end via submission, especially when you factor in the possibility of a "club-and-sub" stoppage after one fighter rocks the other and slaps on a choke to finish it off.
I think Ribeiro is the more likely of the two to earn such a win, so I'm going to split my bet: Ribeiro to win by submission, as well as the fight to end via submission (either fighter wins with a sub).
Riberio is particularly effective with his guillotine (four career finishes). And though Gadzhiyasulov is a striker first, he's also quick to revert to takedowns when things don't go his way. That opens the door for submission opportunities from either side.
Now, though, Gadzhiyasulov faces a younger, bigger, more experienced Brazilian in Riberio, who will attempt submissions in transition and off his back if the fight goes to the ground.
The club-and-sub possibility is live for both athletes; the light heavyweights possess power and can be buzzed with strikes.
With a little line-shopping and sniping off some market outliers, I think we're also taking a sharply strategic approach to betting this fight from a pure numbers perspective.
The Picks: Brendson Ribeiro by Submission (+1300 at BetRivers) | Ribeiro vs. Magomed Gadzhiyasulov Ends by Submission (+420 at BetRivers)
Tony Sartori: While You're on Top…
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:55 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC prelims feature a bantamweight bout between Kyung Ho Kang (+135) and Muin Gafurov (-160). The only reason Gafurov is a mere -165 on the moneyline is that he is 0-3 in the UFC, but don't let recency bias cloud the fact that he is clearly the better fighter in this matchup.
The knock on the betting is questions about his intelligence in the octagon, especially after he practically gifted Said Nurmagomedov a free victory in his latest loss by jumping right into Nurmagomedov's guillotine. Yes, that was bad, but that is also a very fixable mistake.
It is far easier to correct a single mental mistake than it is to make someone a bigger, stronger wrestler. That is exactly why I hate this spot for Kang, because there is just nothing he will be able to do when Gafurov brings this fight to the mat other than attempt submissions from bottom position.
Gafurov is much heavier, denser and will likely just lay on top of Kang for 15 minutes en route to an easy unanimous decision victory. Both of Kang's past two losses came from being out-grappled, and Gafurov's strength is not going to be able to be matched by the underdog.
With that said, in a fight in which I suspect Gafurov to remain in top position for the majority of the bout, I personally think that taking a flier on his submission prop at +1150 is the most +EV play on the board. While it's an unlikely outcome, it's a possible one.
First, Gafurov boasts seven professional victories by submission, so, obviously, he is capable of doing so. However, Kang is also a tremendous grappler and purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, so it is going to be tough to lock him into anything.
But Kang has tapped before, so it's not outside the realm of possibility. Again, I project Gafurov to wrestle and hold position for 15 minutes en route to a decision victory, but I think a submission occurring in the process is more probable of happening than the +1150 odds suggest.
The Pick: Muin Gafurov by Submission (+1150 at BetRivers)
Clint MacLean: Fade the Old Dog
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 2:25 p.m. ET
Jared Gordon is a 34-year-old natural 145-pounder whose best win is a split decision over Joe Solecki.
Gordon (+190) now fights Nasrat Haqparast (-235), who is coming into his prime and is very naturally the larger man. He also has 78% takedown defense and some of the fastest hands in the division.
While Haqparast isn't much of a power guy I do believe that the volume and speed will end up adding up and being too much for the old dog.
Gordon should put up a fight early, but as this fight gets deeper, I think Nasrat will start to hurt him and could find a late stoppage. I'm going to split my bet with a pair of plays on Haqparast to win by KO/TKO in Round 2 (+750) and by KO/TKO in Round 3 (+1200).
Both plays are available at FanDuel.
The Picks: Nasrat Haqparast by Round 2 KO (+1000 at FanDuel) | Haqparast by Round 3 KO (+1300 at FanDuel)
Dan Tom: A Sneaky Submission Play
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 3:55 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to target a main-card attraction between Kelvin Gastelum (-200) and Daniel Rodriguez (+170).
Despite this arguably being a 'dog-or-pass spot from a moneyline perspective, there is one prop that's jumping off the board at me.
Even though Rodriguez is known as a southpaw slugger, the 37-year-old has a deceptively slick front submission prowess that comes to life in club-and-sub scenarios.
Gastelum is a tough fighter to cleanly knock out due to his durability, but The Ultimate Fighter winner is still not beyond being stung by clean shots from a superior striker like Rodriguez.
Couple that with the fact that Gastelum has a history of losing to submissions soberly, and I can't help but take a small flier on Rodriguez to lock up a front choke in the chaos for the current price it's going off at.
