After a week off, the UFC is back on February 1st. Headlined by former champion Israel Adesanya taking on Nassourdine Imavov, the event has a special 9:00 A.M. ET start time and streams ESPN+.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. Mostly, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Saudi Arabia odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Saudi Arabia Predictions & Luck Ratings
Israel Adesanya (-166) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (+140)
This is the first non-title fight for the multiple-time champion Israel Adesanya in six years, a span that includes 12 fights and an 8-4 record (with one of the losses coming at light heavyweight). Currently ranked as the #2 contender in the middleweight division, "The Last Stylebender" might be just one win away from a shot at claiming the belt for a third time.
However, he has a tough task in front of him in Nassourdine Imavov. The Frenchman has won three in a row, with a 7-2 overall record in the promotion. He's also seven years younger than Adesanya, and just entering his prime whereas Adensaya's best days are probably in the rearview mirror at this point.
Especially considering speed and reflexes are such a key part of Adesanya's game, and those attributes tend to decay faster than other abilities.
For that reason, I'm leaning towards Imavov, who's seen his line come in a bit after opening around +155 at most books. He's still +144 at FanDuel, where I'll be taking a sprinkle early in the week and hoping to catch some CLV.
Verdict: Nassourdine Imavov Undervalued
Said Nurmaogmedov (-198) vs. Vinicius Oliveira (+164)
It wouldn't be a fight night in the Middle East without a Nurmagomedov on the card, but this time it's Said, who's not a member of the training camp/family led by former lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Said is much more of a striker than the other Nurmagomedovs, and he's been taken down more times in the UFC than he's taken down his opponents. He does have a killer guillotine choke, though, which he's used in three of his seven UFC wins.
However, Vinicius Oliveira is a solid grappler in his own right and has never been submitted in a professional MMA competition.
He's also the more dynamic overall striker and should be able to hold his own on the feet against the Russian. This one should be lined closer to even, and the price has already dropped on Oliveira after opening north of +200 on DraftKings.
They still have the best price at +164, but act fast because some places already have Oliveira as low as +130.
Verdict: Vinicius Oliveira Undervalued
Mike Davis (-135) vs. Fares Ziam (+114)
Both Mike "Beast Boy" Davis and Fares "Smile Killer" Ziam come into this event on four-fight winning streaks. However, one of those four for Ziam was a split decision, and he also has fewer stoppage victories (one) in that span than Davis, who has two.
Given that the level of competition faced by both fighters is relatively equal, Davis is a justifiable favorite.
I'm pointing all of this out because the money has come in heavily on Ziam since the line opened, as Davis was formerly more than a -200 favorite.
If that trend continues, I'll be looking to get on Beast Boy at something approaching even money. I wouldn't take the -135 currently available, but we're likely to get a better number at some point.
Verdict: Mike Davis Undervalued (But Wait)
